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Texas Basketball: Are Longhorns destined for 2020-21 postseason success?

By Jacob Zinkula

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 22: Courtney Ramey #3 of the Texas Longhorns reacts during the second half of their game against the California Golden Bears at Madison Square Garden on November 22, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 22: Courtney Ramey #3 of the Texas Longhorns reacts during the second half of their game against the California Golden Bears at Madison Square Garden on November 22, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /
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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 23: Courtney Ramey #3 of the Texas Longhorns (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images) /

Texas Basketball has underachieved in recent seasons, but history suggests the program might have some long-awaited tournament success in 2020-21.

Since taking over as head coach prior to the 2015-16 season, there’s no question that Shaka Smart’s tenure at Texas Basketball has been a disappointment. The Longhorns made the NCAA Tournament in two of his first four seasons, losing in the first round on both occasions.

(Credit to KenPom and Barttorvik for statistics and Bracket Matrix and ESPN for seeding projections)

Since 2015-16, 16 coaches have gone at least 0-2 in the tournament per Barttorivik, with Smart posting the worst “PAKE” of them all. This metric suggests that relative to KenPom’s team ratings, none of these winless coaches underperformed more in March. For reference, only Kevin Keatts (UNC Wilmington/NC State) and Tim Cluess (Iona) have records worse than 0-2 in this timespan (0-3 and 0-4).

2015-16: 20-13 – 6 seed (1st round loss to Northern Iowa 75-72)

2016-17: 11-22 – N/A

2017-18: 19-15 – 10-seed (1st round loss to Nevada 87-83 in OT)

2018-19: 20-16 – N/A

2019-20: 19-12 – projected First Four Out

Although a tournament appearance was possible before CV-19 cut this past season short, the Longhorns likely ended the season on the outside looking in (projected First Four Out). The dissatisfaction with Smart has been prevalent throughout the fanbase, and there was significant speculation that a coaching change would be made. Shortly after the season’s cancellation, however, the university’s Athletic Director confirmed that Smart would be back for a 6th season. A few factors likely helped his cause.

  • Smart has a significant buyout of $13.8 million (something that likely became even more difficult for the university to stomach given the financial implications of CV-19). Along these lines, schools have generally been hesitant to conduct coaching searches in the middle of a pandemic.
  • Additionally, Smart didn’t have the chance to finish out the 2019-20 season. The team would have likely needed a solid Big-12 tournament showing to secure a bid, but the team was playing well down the stretch. The Longhorns won five of their last six games, all of which came without notable contributors in Jericho Sims and Jase Febres. There is reason to think some of this momentum could carry over to next season.
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