Rutgers vs. Michigan State: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

A pair of Big Ten teams with seven wins in Rutgers and Michigan State will duke it out in a late-night game on Tuesday night.

TV schedule: Tuesday, January 5, 9:00 pm ET. ESPN2

Arena: Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will look to rebound from their loss to Iowa over the weekend, traveling to Michigan State to take on the Spartans in a critical Big Ten match-up for both squads.

The Scarlet Knights (7-2) have cemented themselves as one of the premier teams in the deepest conference in college basketball, rallying off wins over Maryland, Illinois, and Purdue – but have suffered losses in two of their last three tilts, falling on the road to Ohio State before dropping a nail-biter on Saturday afternoon to the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Rutgers opened the season strongly, going 4-0 through their non-conference schedule with double-digit wins over Sacred Heart, Fairleigh Dickinson, Hofstra, and Syracuse – and their impressive play has translated to stellar efficiency on both ends of the court.  Ranking 17th offensively and 28th defensively, the Scarlet Knights have been particularly excellent on the offensive end.

The Scarlet Knights drain 53.4% of their shots inside the arc – good for 70th nationally – and are even better from long range, knocking down 39.3% of their three-point attempts, which ranks 23rd in the country.  In averaging 80.0 points per game, Rutgers averages 0.99 points per possession – and has been solid on the defensive end, holding teams to 0.87 points per possession.

Headlined by an All-American caliber talent in Ron Harper Jr., the Scarlet Knights feature a balanced offensive onslaught – and that was on full display against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Jacob Young poured in a team-high 17 points in the loss on a 7-12 shooting clip and was joined by four other players who recorded 13 points apiece in Geo Baker, Montez Mathis, Myles Johnson, and Ron Harper, who is averaging 22.1 points per game.

Rutgers has fared better than Michigan State (7-3), a team that – after going 6-0 in non-conference play with wins over Notre Dame and Duke – limped to begin Big Ten play, going 0-3 for the first since 2001-02 and just the second time in Tom Izzo’s career with the Spartans.  Those three wins included double-digit blowouts on the road to Northwestern (79-65) and Minnesota (81-56), as well as a nine-point loss in East Lansing to Wisconsin.

The Spartans finally got back on the winning side, albeit with difficulty, on Saturday, coming away from Nebraska with an 84-77 victory.  Like Rutgers, Michigan State maintains one of the most efficient offenses in the country (24th) – but is a little worse on the defensive end at 80th.  They play one of the fastest tempos in college basketball, getting 72.3 possessions per game – the 50th-highest mark in Div. I.

Michigan State ranks in the top 150 in several offensive categories, shooting 34.9% (117th) from beyond the arc and 51.3% (131st) on two-pointers – and rank 34th from the charity stripe at 75.9%.  They are also solid in taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on just 18.0% of their possessions (103rd) – and they also rank in the top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage (31.0%, 96th).  The Spartans are a mixed bag defensively, however, defending better than the Div. I average on 2PT (48.2%, 120th) – but struggle mightily when defending long-range bombs (35.6%, 243rd).

The Spartans feature two double-digit scorers in Aaron Henry (13.4) and Joey Hauser (12.3) – and Henry is coming off a career-best performance against Nebraska, pouring in 27 points (7-11 2PT, 3-5 3PT, 4-5 FT).  Michigan State’s win over Nebraska also featured two more double-digit scorers, with Joshua Langford putting in 15 points (5-12 FG) and Gabe Brown providing a key 10-point performance off the bench in just 16 minutes.

Ultimately, this game could come down to three-point shooting – again, something that the Scarlet Knights excel at.  They knock down 39.3% of their long-range shots, the fourth-highest mark in the Big Ten – and take on a Michigan State team that ranks 11th in the conference in 3PT defense.  For context, Michigan State has played two of the teams that rank above Rutgers in 3PT% in Wisconsin and Northwestern – and the Badgers shot 42.1% (8-19) while the Wildcats drained 47.6% (10-21) of their long-range bombs.

Likewise, Rutgers’ stellar 3PT% defense – which ranks first in the Big Ten – presents issues for a Michigan State offense that gets 31.9% of their offensive production from beyond the three-point line.  The Spartans’ 34.9% clip from long range ranks 10th in the Big Ten – but they have proven at times that they are capable of draining the three-ball, particularly in their contest against Wisconsin, where they shot 72.7% (8-11) from long-range.

This is a must-win for Michigan State if they hope to remain in the AP Poll’s top 25 – but their recent struggles, paired with how well Rutgers has played – indicate that this may be their toughest challenge yet.  If they hope to be taken legitimately in Big Ten play, they need this win – but the Scarlet Knights just have too much efficient manpower for the Spartans to handle.

Prediction: Rutgers 85 – Michigan State 72