Two Big Ten teams in need of a win this week will face off. With Purdue or Michigan State end up victorious?
TV SCHEDULE: Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 at 4:00 PM PST on ESPN
LOCATION: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana
The Purdue Boilermakers continue their season with a Big Ten championship still in mind. The Boilermakers, through fourteen conference games, are only three games behind conference leader Michigan. The Michigan State Spartans, on the other hand, are struggling under coach Tom Izzo. Their abysmal conference record (4-8), coupled with a sub-par overall record (10-8), are ingredients for a rebuilding season in the Spartans program.
Each squad enters the game with inconsistent performances over their last five games. The Boilermakers have alternated losses and wins over their last five. Purdue started with a 17 point loss to Big Ten leader Michigan, followed by a 19 point win against Minnesota. In Purdue’s last game, Minnesota exacted revenge with a three-point win.
In Michigan, the Spartans lost to Ohio State by seventeen points and followed that up with a six-point loss to Iowa. They rattled off two wins against Nebraska and Penn State, respectively but lost a second time to Iowa by a whopping thirty points. Both teams are searching for consistency and Purdue will be the one who reaches that mark first.
The Boilermakers and Spartans match up evenly, on paper. Michigan has the slightest edge over the Boilermakers in points per game (70.7 compared to 70.4). However, the Boilermakers lead the Spartans by five points in points allowed per game (71 for Spartans, 66 for Purdue). This has obviously been the difference between the two teams and will continue to be. Most teams have between 18 and 20 games played this season. Their teams’ identity is set and for Michigan State that means a weakness on team defense which has ultimately led to plenty of losses.
Junior forward Trevion Williams has been the jack of all trades for the Boilermakers. He leads the team in points and rebounds per game while being a top-five assist leader on the Boilermakers. Williams season has consisted of 15.8 points per game which is well above his 10 points per game career average. His almost 16 points per game have come on 52% field goal shooting which is right around Williams’ career average.
The Boilermakers have played Williams about four minutes more per game than his sophomore season. Williams has responded and stepped up as a leader of the Boilermakers. He’s attempted four more shots per season this year compared to last which has translated to about four more points per game for the 6’10’’ forward.
In the initial meeting between the Boilermakers and Spartans, Williams showed up and showed out. He shot 64% from the field (9-14) in two minutes. From the charity stripe, Williams had his best game of the season hitting 8 of 12 free throw attempts – good for a 66% success rate – well above his season average of 53%. Williams ended the win with 26 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block, and 2 assists.
The Boilermakers are at a tipping point of their season but not because of their opponent. They are now in the season of ‘must-win’ games where each loss at this point in the season seems to dig teams deeper into a hole they cannot get out of. Purdue is only three games behind the conference leader and although their talent is up to par, they can still make some waves in their remaining weeks of the season.
However, Purdue goes as Trevion Williams goes, and relying on one player generally brings inconsistencies. On the other hand, Williams has not stepped away from the pressure and he has not crumbled under the pressure. In fact, Williams steps up and shows consistency when his teammates need it the most. Tuesday night should be no different.
PREDICTION: Purdue 75, Michigan State 68