Texas Basketball: How long can Longhorns last in 2021 NCAA Tournament?

Refuting an alternate result

The obvious argument about making the Elie Eight is that they will have to get past a No.2 seed. Having already lost to projected two seed Villanova and possible two seed West Virginia, little analysis needs to be done when there is actual proof. The proof however adds up to two games that were each decided by less than five points.

Whereas the West Virginia game was the rematch of the game Texas won earlier, there are a few reasons as to why they lost the Villanova match-up. During that Dec. 5, 2020 game the Longhorns attempted just six free-throws, fourteen fewer than their season average.

In addition, during the first week of December when they played Indiana, North Carolina, and Villanova, not only is their 64 point total versus Villanova the Longhorns`lowest, but in those three games they scored 69, 66, and 64, about a month later, Baylor held them to 69. With Andrew Jones scoring just five points versus Villanova, this Texas team is not the same and will not be the same as they enter March.

As for the Longhorns losing to a No. 6 seed, similar to how they lost to Oklahoma State on Feb 6, 2021, that particular loss comes down to their effective field goal percentage being 39 percent as Coleman, Brown, and Sims all scored fewer than 10 points. While Oklahoma States` defense should get some credit, the first time these two met up, Texas` effective field goal percentage was 45 percent.

If Texas gets a No. 3 seed and does not have Villanova as the No. 2 seed on their side of the bracket, 2020-21 will not just be the first time Coach Smart gets to the Elite Eight with Texas, it will be his first tournament victory with a team other than VCU.