Michigan vs. Michigan State: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule
In a nationally televised regular-season finale, the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans will clash on Sunday afternoon.
TV schedule: Sunday, March 7, 4:30 pm ET. CBS
Arena: Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan
In what could be a must-win for Michigan State, the Spartans will host the second-ranked Michigan Wolverines in the second of back-to-back meetings between the two squads – in both team’s Big Ten regular-season finale.
Firmly on the bubble and fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, the Spartans (14-11) – fresh off a three-game win streak that saw them scoop up wins over Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio State – have stumbled at the worst possible time, being decimated on the road by Maryland and scraping by Indiana just days later.
The Wolverines (19-2), meanwhile, endured their own recent setback, in what has been an otherwise near-perfect season. After romping through a stretch of Big Ten games with seven-straight wins, the Big Ten leaders unexpectedly suffered a 76-53 home loss on March 2nd to an Illinois squad that was without Ayo Dosunmu.
With the win over Indiana under Michigan State’s belt and Michigan coming off the rare loss to Illinois, the two teams clashed for the first time this season in both squad’s subsequent tilt, meeting on March 4th in a game that yielded a 69-50 rout in favor of the Wolverines.
To state the obvious: that game was Michigan’s to lose. The Spartans never held a lead, as the Wolverines scored on the opening possession – and Michigan, after building up an 11-point lead at halftime, never allowed Michigan State to have a chance, expanding its lead to as large as 28 with just over four minutes left to play.
Michigan’s starting five were all instrumental in the win, considering they combined for 60 of Michigan’s 69 points – with Isaiah Livers, Mike Smith, and Eli Brooks tallying nine points apiece. Franz Wagner and Hunter Dickinson were the stars of the win, however, with Wagner pouring in a game-high 19 points while Dickinson registered another double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The duo were the cogs to a Michigan team that maintained a mark of 1.05 points per possession while maintaining solid shooting clips of 52.8% (2PT) and 43.8% (3PT). But their success did not stop just on the offensive end – the Spartans, one of the Big Ten’s worst offensive teams, struggled to get anything going themselves, being held to just 0.76 points per possession and seeing just one player reach double-digits in Aaron Henry, with 14.
Bizarrely, the Spartans and Wolverines were nearly even in multiple scoring statistics – they were tied in points off turnovers, and second-chance points, fastbreak points, and points in the paint were all decided by four points or less each. Michigan State actually won the game on two-pointers, outscoring the Wolverines, 40-38 – and both teams tied at the charity stripe, 10-10.
That means the difference came down to the three-point line. Six different Spartans attempted a long-range shot – and none of them landed, leading Michigan State to finish 0-9 from the field. Meanwhile, four different Wolverines shot – and made – a triple, with them going 7-16 from the perimeter. Wagner was the catalyst of the onslaught, going 4-6 on three-pointers.
Unfortunately for the Spartans, that could very much repeat itself again in this meeting – albeit, it could be from beyond the arc or inside. They’re among the worst offensive teams in the Big Ten, shooting just 30.4% on 3PTers (13th) and 45.2% on 2PTers (12th), while Michigan ranks in the top three in both categories. To add insult to injury, the Wolverines are also among the best on the defensive end in both areas – while the Spartans rank second in 3PT defense (30.9%), but just 11th in 2P% defense (50.1%).
Whatever offensive blast the Spartans enjoyed during their three-game winning streak – where they averaged 76.7 points – is now gone, as evidenced by their mark of 56.3 points in their last three games. The Wolverines are no stranger to low-scoring fits, either, considering they recorded a season-low 53 points in the loss to Illinois just days ago – but Michigan has shown, consistently, that they can score at all. The Spartans, safe to say, have not.
If the Spartans hopes to have a shot, they need someone else other than Henry to step up – particularly between either Joshua Langford and/or Rocket Watts. Whereas Henry went 6-15 from the field, Langford and Watts went a combined 5-18 to finish with just 12 combined points. For a Spartan team fighting for their playoff lives, that is unacceptable.
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Arguably, the Spartans need this win in order to find themselves in NCAA Tournament. They are sitting firmly among the last teams being slated in the field, and – at 14-11 overall and 8-11 in Big Ten play – there is little room for error for Tom Izzo’s crew. Barring a devastating loss in the Big Ten Tournament, a win against Michigan may just be enough to catapult the Spartans into safe territory – but the Wolverines’ offense may just be too much for Michigan State to overcome.
Prediction: Michigan 68 – Michigan State 57