Illinois Basketball: 2021-22 season preview and outlook for Fighting Illini

Season Outlook and Predictions

Of the 15 writers who contributed to the Busting Brackets Top 25, I was by far the highest on the Illini having slotted them at No. 4 in the nation. While I understand people’s apprehension about them after losing Ayo Dosunmu, Adam Miller, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, and all three of their assistant coaches, I truly believe they have a good chance of being a better team than they were last season. That’s not to say that they will finish second or better in the final AP Poll like they did last year, I just think that pound for pound, this team would give last year’s team a run for its money.

Looking around the country, I do not think there is a better center than Kofi Cockburn. Looking around the Big Ten, I also do not think there is a better guard than Andre Curbelo. The question then becomes, does Illinois have the supporting cast to get the most out of their two stars?

This is where I believe a lot of the people who aren’t as familiar with the program differ in opinions with those who are. Brad Underwood has done a masterful job reloading this roster and building it around Curbelo and Cockburn. Trent Frazier is the perfect backcourt partner with Curbelo because he takes pressure off Curbelo defensively by taking whoever the better opposing guard is, and he is just as good playing off the ball offensively due to his ability to spot up and shoot.

Underwood also filled the holes Bezhanishvili and Miller left with Payne and Plummer who arguably will do the same things but more effectively. In the middle of the rotation, Underwood has recruited and developed wings that can all guard multiple positions and shoot the ball. Grandison, Williams, Hutcherson, and Hawkins will all be deployed in different ways this season, but they will all do the same thing: provide versatility, play unselfish basketball, and make the little plays that lead to winning.

The major difference I see in the Big Ten between this season and last season is the level of competition at the bottom half of the conference. Last season, it seemed like the Nebraska’s, Northwestern’s, and Minnesota’s were going toe-to-toe with the big dogs every night. Northwestern spent some time ranked and Minnesota even boat raced the Big Ten Champion* Wolverines. This year, I don’t think the level of play will be nearly as competitive between the front of the league and the back end.

Now, for the fun part…

Non-Conference Record Prediction

10-1

Historically under Underwood, Illinois has struggled the most during non-conference play and put up some stinkers. The defense is usually slow to get its feet under it, and there are too many mental mistakes. I do think there is a good chance that changes this season as there will be so much competition within the team for minutes.

There has not been this level of depth on any Underwood teams to date. Since Curbelo, Cockburn, and Frazier are likely the only ones with their minutes safely locked up within a deviation of five minutes per game, the rest of the team better look sharp if they want to see the floor when the rotation inevitably tightens.

I think Illinois will look the best they have looked in non-conference in a while, but I do think they drop one of the games. My best guess would be to either Arkansas or Missouri at neutral sites.

Big Ten Record Prediction

16-4

Illinois has dominated Big Ten over the last two years, and I don’t see this year being any different. The Illini play a physical brand of basketball that lends itself nicely to the way the conference plays. The team has also started hitting its stride in mid-to-late January recently, which is right around when the games start getting tougher for them.

Although last season there were no true road challenges with the full environments, Illinois has been impressive on the road the last two seasons. Having to play in West Lafayette, Bloomington, East Lansing, and Ann Arbor are brutal, but I think they will at least split those. That 16-4 record gives them room for two more slip-ups which feels fair.

My Big Ten Top Five Prediction

1.     Illinois (16-4)
T2. Purdue (15-5)
T2. Michigan (15-5)
4. Indiana (13-7)
5. Ohio State (12-8)