Busting Brackets
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NBA Draft 2022: Early observations heading into 2021-22 NCAA Basketball season

By Brandon Simberg

Chet Holmgren defends Paolo Banchero on a drive during the Iverson Classic All-American Game at Bartlett High School on Saturday, May 8, 2021.A37i5072
Chet Holmgren defends Paolo Banchero on a drive during the Iverson Classic All-American Game at Bartlett High School on Saturday, May 8, 2021.A37i5072 /
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NCAA Basketball NBA Draft Auburn Tigers guard Justin Powell John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
NCAA Basketball NBA Draft Auburn Tigers guard Justin Powell John Reed-USA TODAY Sports /

Returners

I covered the top returners here in detail, but it’s worth rehashing how we view returners in general. At this stage of the draft cycle, freshmen typically get more buzz given their youth and perceived upside. But some can’t live up to the gaudy expectations while returning players produce and rise up boards.

Last year, only James Bouknight and Keyontae Johnson were seen as bonafide top 20 prospects in the preseason. By the draft, Bouknight, Franz Wagner, Davion Mitchell, and Chris Duarte all went in the lottery, while Corey Kispert and Trey Murphy also went in the top 20. The year prior, six returners went in the lottery.

Jaden Ivey and Benedict Mathurin are the obvious names to watch and already getting lottery buzz. The returner I think is the most underlooked is UCLA wing, Jaime Jaquez. An integral part of their Final Four run, Jaquez is a jack of all trades player. He’s strong, athletic, a smart defender, a good shooter, and a high-IQ weapon. Juzang is getting the preseason hype, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Jaquez supplants him as their best player and eventually works his way into the lottery.

Three deep sleepers not being discussed that I think could work their way into the first round are Keon Ellis (Alabama), Justin Powell (Tennessee), and Coleman Hawkins (Illinois). Ellis played a minor role for a very good Alabama team. With a key group of college players leaving, and Nimari Burnett out for the season after suffering a torn ACL, the JuCo product Ellis is primed to step into a bigger role. He’s got good size for a wing, athleticism, and had a good shooting profile last season. Nate Oates’ dynamic offense should only enhance those skills.

Powell was on a tear to start his freshman campaign for Auburn before a concussion ended his season. He scorched the nets shooting 44% from deep, while also showcasing his ancillary skills averaging over four assists. Big shooters with secondary skills to use have typically found a role in the NBA, and I expect the same for Powell.

Hawkins was a sleeper of mine entering last season but saw limited minutes for a very good Illinois team (as expected). The 6’10 forward added weight and is now primed for more minutes. Those surrounding the Illini expect him to be the starting four by the middle of the season. His shooting upside and ball skills will pair well with Kofi Cockburn and it’s plausible Hawkins plays his way into becoming a real prospect.

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