Baylor vs Villanova: 2021-22 college basketball game preview and TV schedule

Scott Drew and the reigning National Champion Baylor Bears face their toughest challenge of the season so far—hosting Jay Wright and No. 6 Villanova.

TV schedule: Sunday, Dec. 12 – 3:00 PM ET, ABC

Arena: Ferrell Center – Waco, TX

Baylor lost four starters from its 2021 National Championship squad but has a chance to get right back to No. 1 if it can hold off Villanova on Sunday. Scott Drew has built a program with legitimate staying power, not just a few good teams. Unfortunately for them, so has Jay Wright at Villanova. Three of the last five National Championships have been won by these two programs.

These teams met in the Sweet Sixteen in March, a matchup that Baylor won 62-51. They also met in the 2019-20 season which Baylor also won.

The Bears have a balanced scoring attack, with seven players averaging between 7.9 and 15.4 PPG, led by sophomore G L.J. Cryer (15.4 PPG), freshman G Kendall Brown (13.4 PPG), and senior F Matthew Mayer (11.6 PPG). Arizona transfer James Akinjo has also been effective as Baylor’s starting point guard, averaging 9.9 PPG and 6.1 APG, although he is shooting a sub-par 37.8% from the field to start the season.

Baylor is the only team in the country that currently ranks in the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Last year’s team finished fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) and fourth in forced turnover rate—two staples of their success. This year’s team has followed in their footsteps, ranking fifth in OR% and third in forced turnover rate. Individually, Flo Thamba, Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, and Jeremy Sochan are all nationally ranked in OR% while the team has five players ranked nationally in steal percentage.

Villanova has arguably as strong a top six as any team in the nation, led by a pair of super-senior guards in Collin Gillespie (17.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) and Justin Moore (15.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.1 APG). Jay Wright’s offense once again relies heavily on the three, ranking first in the Big East in 3P% and 3P rate.

That said, the Wildcats‘ lack of depth has been a glaring issue over the first month of the season. ‘Nova was up 10 on UCLA with 9:24 left and up 11 on Purdue with 9:04 to go. They ended up losing both games as fatigue clearly took a toll in the final minutes.

For Baylor, a relatively weak schedule is noticeable up to this point, although they do have a Quad 1 win over No. 19 Michigan State on a neutral court. Overall, their NET strength of schedule is No. 248 nationally while Villanova’s is No. 38.

The turnover battle could decide this game as Baylor ranks No. 3 in forced turnover rate while ‘Nova has the ninth-lowest turnover rate in the country.

I lean towards Baylor in a close one largely due to the home environment at the Ferrell Center in Waco as well as their depth (or Villanova’s lack thereof).