This year's Big 12 Tournament could prove to be the most fascinating conference tournament in the whole country. The league is once again holding up its bargain as one of the best in the nation, which should make for a thrilling postseason.
By the end of play on Saturday, the bracket for the Big 12 Tournament was finalized. The top seed in the field belongs to the Houston Cougars, who have rolled over all but one conference opponent. Colorado has the furthest to climb, starting play on Tuesday as the No. 16 seed in the bracket.
The Big 12 Tournament is one of the last tournaments to kick off this March. Who will be cutting down the nets in Kansas City this week?
The tournament kicks off in earnest on Tuesday at 12:30pm ET, when the Oklahoma State Cowboys face off against the Cincinnati Bearcats. From there, it will be five straight days of Big 12 action, concluding with the championship game at 6:00pm ET on ESPN on Saturday evening.
This year has the added bonus of being the most extensive Big 12 Tournament in history, thanks to the pillaging of programs from the Pac-12. There are 16 teams in this year's field, a first for the competition.
The tournament isn't solely about who wins, though that matters too. Some coaches will be fighting for their jobs. And some teams will be fighting for a spot in the Big Dance.
Without further ado, let's preview the Big 12 Tournament, starting with the players who will make all the difference this week.
Key Players
G L.J. Cryer, Houston (GS)
2024-2025 stats: 15.3 ppg, 2.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists
The stats don't necessarily leap off the page, but Cryer is the best player for one of the best teams, not just in the conference, but in the nation. The Katy native has scored at least 20 points in four of the Houston Cougars' last five games. He leads the Big 12 shooting 43.1 percent from three, his third straight season pacing the conference in the stat (the first time he did, he played for in-state rival Baylor). Where Cryer goes, the Cougs go. That could be to their first Big 12 Tournament title after coming short in the championship game a year ago.
C Hunter Dickinson, Kansas (GS)
2024-2025 stats: 17.4 ppg, 9.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists
It's been a down year for Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks. It's been a down year for Dickinson, too. After averaging a double-double last year, his numbers have dropped. In fact, his 17.4 points per game are his fewest since his freshman year at Michigan. He was never much of a three-point shooter, but his touch from beyond the arc has entirely disappeared too. And yet, he's still one of the nation's most dominant big men and he seems to be rounding into form, dropping at least 30 points in two of his last four games, including a career-high-matching 33 points in the regular season finale against Arizona.
F Joseph Tugler, Houston (So.)
2024-2025 stats: 5.6 ppg, 5.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Tugler averages less than six points per game. He's hit three three-pointers in his collegiate career to this point. Yet he's a key player? That's because he's one of the best defensive players in the nation. He leads the nation in both defensive box plus/minus and defensive rating. He also leads the Big 12 in block percentage. Last month, Tugler was named to the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year watchlist, one of only three underclassmen to make the list.
Team Superlatives
Team to Beat: Houston
Until they are beaten, Houston is the best team in the Big 12, and it's not particularly close. They won the regular season title over the next closest competitor, Texas Tech, by four games. They enter the conference tournament on a ten-game winning streak. The Cougars' lone loss in league play was a one-point overtime loss at the hands of those aforementioned Red Raiders. This Houston team is simply elite.
Top Contender: Texas Tech
The fact that the Red Raiders are the only team to beat the Cougars in conference play all year arguably makes them the only contender. It was hard to see this Texas Tech team coming, but they've been getting elite play all year from the likes of JT Toppin - who is nearly averaging a double-double - Chance McMillian and Elijah Hawkins, who has become of the best distributors in the country. The Red Raiders have seven losses, but none of them were by double-digits. In other words, every opponent has their hands full with Texas Tech.
Dark Horse: Iowa State
Can a team that was ranked No. 10 in the Associated Press poll really be considered a dark horse in anything? It's a question for another day. Despite having Final Four potential, Iowa State is only seeded No. 5 in the Big 12 Tournament, missing out on the vaunted double-bye. That could work in the Cyclones' favor, as it gives them the easiest potential quarterfinal (BYU) when it comes to the top four seeds. Iowa State lost to BYU in a double-overtime thriller recently and will be looking for revenge. Iowa State has beaten both Texas Tech and Arizona this season, and played Houston close.
Bracketology
#1 Seeds: Houston
There's an outside chance Texas Tech or Iowa State push for a No. 1 seed with a run to the Big 12 Tournament title, but the only likely top seed to come out of the conference is Houston. The Cougars are in good shape too, considering they rank No. 3 in the NET and won't have any terrible losses left to take, in all likelihood. They're grip on a top seed is strong, so long as a fringe No. 1 doesn't win a conference tournament in another major league.
#2-3 Seeds: Iowa State, Texas Tech
Like Houston, Iowa State and Texas Tech both appear to be on solid footing. Both are projected as No. 3 seeds in our pre-postseason bracketology; both are good candidates to move up to No. 2 seeds with a big run in the Big 12 Tournament. Dropping a seed or two is also a possibility with early exits, though the Red Raiders have the first two days off in Kansas City.
#4-6 Seeds: Arizona, BYU
After an underwhelming start to the season, the Arizona Wildcats turned things around in their first foray into Big 12 play, lining them up for a No. 4 seed come March. They are a No. 3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament with no losses below Quad 1 on the resume. BYU is the No. 4 seed in the Big 12 Tournament, but their underlining numbers are not great - that non-conference schedule is particularly weak - putting the Cougars in position for a No. 6 seed unless they go on a big run this week.
#7-10 Seeds: Kansas, West Virginia
How disappointing of a year has it been for the preseason No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks? While they'll still make the NCAA Tournament, if they secure a No. 7 seed, it will be their worst position since they were a No. 8 seed in 2000. Meanwhile, Darian DeVries deserves more credit on the national level for what he's been able to do with the West Virginia Mountaineers this season; barring calamity, they should be in the Big Dance.
On the Bubble: Baylor, Cincinnati
Baylor is on the right side of the bubble. They can still blow it with an early eliminination in the Big 12 Tournament, but should be okay. Cincinnati, on the other hand, will need a big run in the Big 12 Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid. Nothing short of a trip to the semifinals, at minimum, would probably suffice.
Predictions
First Round
No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 13 Cincinnati
This is a rematch of a game that just happened over the weekend, which the Pokes won handily. The 77.8 percent shooting from three (on nine shots) probably isn't replicable, though. The Bearcats are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, giving them an extra dose of motivation..
Prediction: Cincinnati 74, Oklahoma State 60
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 16 Colorado
This is another rematch of a season finale, which Colorado dominated by 20 points; the teams split their series this year. The Buffaloes were easily the worst team in the Big 12 this year. The Horned Frogs have struggled themselves as of late, but Colorado's victory over the weekend felt like a last gasp of life more than anything.
Prediction: TCU 70, Colorado 58
No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 15 Arizona State
There's upset potential here. Kansas State underwhelmed all year and lost on its home floor to the Sun Devils by double-digits; Arizona State lost at home to the Wildcats, too. Expect some of Kansas State's veteran transfers - namely Coleman Hawkins - to step up in the season's final moments.
Prediction: Kansas State 72, Arizona State 69
No. 11 Utah vs. No. 14 UCF
A legitimate upset has to happen in at least one of these games, right? The UCF Knights topped the Utes in the teams' only head-to-head matchup this season. Utah is playing under perennial Big 12 interim coach Josh Eilert, who is 1-3 since taking over for Craig Smith. Alum Alex Jensen has already been tapped to take the permanent job next year, so Eilert is a lame duck.
Prediction: UCF 68, Utah 62
Second Round
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Cincinnati
This is where the Bearcats' NCAA Tournament hopes likely die. The Cyclones won the matchup between these two teams earlier this year behind a backup guard and a staggering 18 turnovers. They won the rebounding battle by a 2:1 margin. Cincinnati is talented, but these teams are in different stratospheres.
Prediction: Iowa State 80, Cincinnati 57
No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 TCU
This game is for the sickos. They split the season series, but both teams sport plodding offenses, meaning we should be in for an ugly defensive showdown. TCU's win this season came by five points, while West Virginia's win was more convincing, an 18-point rout.
Prediction: West Virginia 62, TCU 58
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Kansas State
The Jerome Tang game! Kansas State had no answer for Baylor star freshman VJ Edgecombe in their previous meeting, allowing the wing to drop 30 on the Wildcats. Kansas State will be too focused on winning their first round game to put enough emphasis on stopping Edgecombe in round two.
Prediction: Baylor 79, Kansas State 65
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 14 UCF
The Knights gave Bill Self's team plenty of grief the last time they played, losing to the Jayhawks by only four points at Allen Fieldhouse. Before that, however, Kansas blew out UCF by 51 points in the Sunshine State. The reality of the contrast in these two teams is probably somewhere in the middle.
Prediction: Kansas 85, UCF 70
Quarterfinals
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5 Iowa State
These teams played one of the games of the year just a week ago, with BYU prevailing in double overtime at Hilton Coliseum. BYU dominated the boards and was able to withstand a barrage of turnovers. Yet the Cyclones still appear to be the better team on the surface and will be seeking vengeance.
Prediction: Iowa State 80, BYU 75
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 West Virginia
With all due respect to all the Mountaineers have accomplished this season, this is a tremendous mismatch. These teams played each other twice, neither being closer than a 14-point margin of defeat at the end of the game.
Prediction: Houston 66, West Virginia 51
No. 2 Texas Tech vs. No. 7 Baylor
These Texas schools are separated by 350 miles and a seemingly wild gulf when it comes to their competitions this year, with the Red Raiders winning the contest between the two by 14. And yet, Baylor seems to have more motivation going into this game. They also have VJ Edgecombe, who didn't play against the Red Raiders the first time around.
Prediction: Baylor 68, Texas Tech 67
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 6 Kansas
On a macro level, these might be the two most prestigious programs in the Big 12. They've also had somewhat counterbalanced seasons; Kansas started off fine but faded in conference play, when a disappointing Arizona team suddenly emerged as a big-time player once more. These teams played just once, in the season finale, when Hunter Dickinson went off for a career-high 33 points. Can Arizona find a way to stop him this time?
Prediction: Kansas 84, Arizona 81
Semifinals
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Iowa State
Iowa State only lost by nine points to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Cyclones were missing both Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones, that could be considered a moral victory. Iowa State will need to slow down L.J. Cryer, who went off for 28 points in the previous game.
Prediction: Houston 66, Iowa State 60
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 7 Baylor
Neither of these teams probably expected to be in this position at the start of the season. In the Big 12 Tournament semis? Sure. But not at the seeds they're saddled with. Kansas' loss to Baylor was one of their more embarrassing ones of the season. The 11-point loss doesn't tell the whole story, as Kansas led by as much as 21 points, only to be outscored 60-30 in the second half. Time for revenge?
Prediction: Kansas 79, Baylor 69
Finals
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 6 Kansas
There's something poetic about this final. New guard of the Big 12 meets old guard. Two legends of the sport pass like ships in the night in Bill Self and Kelvin Sampson. Picking chalk isn't fun, but it's realistic for Houston. Time for the Cougars to finish the deal.
Prediction: Houston 81, Kansas 74