The Sweet 16 matchups are set to begin. After a pair of gritty victories for both teams, No. 1 Auburn and No. 5 Michigan are set for a main card fight on Friday evening. With Auburn playing a close game against the 9-seeded Creighton, one could only question, are the Tigers once again on upset watch?
It was the first time since 1986 that Auburn won two tournament games by double digits, following the 82-70 win over Creighton in the second round. Still, Auburn is being counted out as Michigan prepares for yet another tough challenge.
While both teams have been battle-tested, all eyes will be on the number one overall seed. So, how can Auburn escape another upset scenario and continue to dance into the Elite 8?
Here are my three keys for Auburn to stay dancing…
Don’t settle, stay patient
As the number one overall seed, Auburn is arguably the most vulnerable of all opposing one-seeds. Following the SEC tournament, the Tigers exposed some bright flaws that had to be adjusted if they wanted to make a postseason run.
It came following a loss to Tennessee where Auburn seemingly forgot how to play their brand of basketball. Ultimately, the blueprint is quite simple. I have a hard time finding Auburn losing to anyone but themselves. They are the number one overall seed for a reason. Despite the 30-5 record, Auburn is still prone to beating themselves.
On paper, the Tigers match up very well against Michigan. These are two teams who are at the top of their respective conferences. Ultimately, Auburn is the better team. It’s a team full of depth and experience, which goes a long way when it comes to the Sweet 16. However, in Auburn’s last NCAA Tournament game against Creighton, they found ways to beat the Bluejays elsewhere.
For starters, this is an Auburn team that will shoot many three-point attempts. Rightfully, Bruce Pearl’s team shoots an effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, while shooting 36.6% from three. It’s a team that can play inside-out or outside-in, which allows for much efficiency on the offensive end. Although, Auburn’s true flaws come with forcing shots and getting impatient.
Creighton threw a lot of different looks Auburn’s way, and as a result, Auburn settled for subpar looks. With Ryan Kalkbrenner at the center of Creighton’s defense, the Bluejays played a zone defense most of the way. Eventually, Auburn was able to work its way through the zone and generate good looks through Tahaad Pettiford and Chaney Johnson. These are guys who can find soft spots in a zone and expose them.
Auburn will certainly live with two-point buckets, rather than a million three-point attempts. Obviously, the Tigers have a multitude of three-point shooters that go beyond the likes of Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara. I would pay close attention to Denver Jones and Miles Kelly, who can heat up from beyond the arc.
I believe a large part of this game will truly come down to what Auburn does on the offensive end. This team has many lethal weapons, too many for Michigan to handle. The only way Auburn loses the offensive battle is if they become sloppy, force threes, and take shots early in the shot clock.
Dictate the defensive glass and limit second-chance opportunities
We covered the offense, but what about the defense? Aside from Auburn’s flashy offense, this is a team that takes a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. I will be the first to tell you that I had Creighton taking down Auburn strictly because of the mismatched lineup. Auburn proved me wrong, and that’s why I like their chances even more now.
In hindsight, the Tigers shut down one of the nation’s best big men and forced Creighton into a lot of threes. Creighton carried a lead through the first half thanks to tremendous shooting (64%, 9-14 from three), and the Bluejays eventually cooled down. I don’t expect that to happen again, especially with this Michigan team. Consequently, Auburn responded well to the mismatches, especially down low, but now that they handled one 7-footer, how are they going to handle two?
It’s the big story with the Wolverines: two 7-footers in the starting lineup. Michigan is not afraid to roll out the “Twin Towers” look, and Auburn will certainly have to adapt. Danny Wolf (transfer from Yale) and Vladislav Goldin (transfer from FAU) are at the core of everything Michigan does.
I mentioned how Auburn is going to want to play their brand of basketball. On the other side of that, Michigan will impose its will and strive to play its brand of basketball as well. The SEC has been tough this year, and the Big Ten has also been tough. This is nothing the Wolverines aren’t used to.
Michigan and Auburn play two completely different styles of basketball. Apart from the height, Michigan plays very slow, while Auburn likes to push the pace. Michigan can utilize the double-center scheme to its advantage if they properly exploit the mismatch down low. Michigan is going to have to hammer the glass in order to work Auburn into foul trouble. Not only will this treat the Wolverines with second-chance points, but this might also steadily work guys like Broome, Cardwell, and Johnson into foul trouble.
In their victory over Texas A&M, both Goldin and Wolf combined for 37 points and 21 rebounds. That cannot happen if Auburn wants to handle business. I would like to assume that Michigan is going to have to score north of 80-90 points in order to beat the Tigers, like Alabama did in the regular season. The only way I see that happening is if Auburn gets into foul trouble.
Auburn plays at a much faster pace than Michigan, and that is an area where the Tigers can counter. If Johni Broome, Drake Cardwell, and Chaney Johnson push the pace and get out in transition, Michigan’s bigs may not be able to keep up. In addition to getting sluggish, Goldin and Wolf might get sloppy defensively and get into foul trouble, which would be Auburn’s best scenario.
The Tigers are going to have to contain Michigan on the glass and speed up the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bruce Pearl starts in zone and throws many different looks at Michigan, similar to what they did with Creighton.
Expose Tre Donaldson on all fronts
I have mentioned all the biggest storylines thus far, but if you want to talk about a storyline, look no further than Tre Donaldson.
This is a guy who is very familiar with his opponent and will be determined to defeat his former team. Donaldson was once a member of the Auburn Tigers, but now he is a foe. As one of Michigan’s standout players, Donaldson will be looking to lead Michigan to the Elite 8 for the first time since 2018.
With that being said, whose backcourt will show up? Donaldson has been a stud with the Wolverines, but how will he stack up against Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara? Donaldson doesn’t have as much experience as those two guys and will very much be put to the test against one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball.
One of the most critical abilities at this stage is having composure. That will be the real test for Tre Donaldson. Of course, I expect Donaldson to be excited to face his former team. However, at the end of the day, he has a heartbeat, he is human, and this is the Sweet 16. If I’m Bruce Pearl, I’m bringing the pressure out of the gate. Force Donaldson to be uncomfortable and put him in vulnerable positions to make mistakes. He averages 11.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists – Donaldson will eventually get his, but this can be a good opportunity for Auburn to silence the noise instantly and build momentum.
Keep in mind that Donaldson played 10 games in two years at Auburn. This year alone, he has started 36 games for Michigan. Donaldson has made incredible strides, but will he provide enough to spark a victory for Michigan on this big of a stage? Besides, Miles Kelly was essentially Donaldson’s replacement.
I expect Tre Donaldson to be amped, but maybe Auburn can expose that.