The field is officially set for this year’s NCAA Tournament, with the first round tipping off Thursday and Friday, bringing two straight days of action-packed basketball. Throughout this season a select few teams have consistently sat near the top, giving us a strong core of legitimate national championship contenders. However, anything can happen this time of year.
That unpredictability that brings upsets, chaos, unforgettable moments, and more is what makes this tournament so special. With that chaos in mind, here are five bold predictions for this year’s March Madness.
1. All four 1 seeds won’t survive the first weekend
The No. 1 seeds in this year’s bracket have looked head and shoulders above the rest of the field for most of this season. However, I think we see a surprise early, with at least one of them getting knocked out before the Sweet 16.
In each of the past two tournaments all four No. 1 seeds did reach the Sweet 16, but historically, it’s not as common as you’d think. Prior to 2024, the last time all four made it was 2019, and it only occurred three times total between 2010 and 2019.
The one team I have my eye on is the No. 1 overall seed Duke. They’ll face the winner of a tough 8/9 matchup between Ohio State and TCU, who are two teams that have been playing their best basketball late in the season.
2. A 13 seed or higher makes the Sweet 16
There’s been a growing narrative that Cinderella runs are dead, especially after last year’s chalky tournament and the top-heavy feel of this year’s bracket. But what makes a Cinderella story a Cindrella story is that no one sees it coming. Think back to what Saint Peter's or Princeton did as those were teams no one thought had any sort of possibility to win.
It just feels like we’re due for another big surprise this year. I’m not exactly sure who that team will be, but keep an eye on Hawai'i, Troy, or North Dakota State as potential candidates.
3. The Big Ten gets multiple teams in the Final Four BUT the title drought continues
The Big Ten has been one of the best conferences in college basketball this season, especially at the top. Michigan is the obvious Final Four contender, but the bracket is loaded with other dangerous teams from the league.
Purdue finally looked like their preseason No. 1 ranking at the Big Ten tournament, while Wisconsin has caught fire late and has some of the best wins in the country. Michigan State is always a threat in March with Tom Izzo, and Illinois is a team with an extremely high ceiling who is flying under the radar in this bracket.
With that kind of depth, I see the Big Ten sending multiple teams to the Final Four. However, I think it ends in heartbreak once again and while they may have the past three titles in football, the conference’s drought on the basketball court continues with its last national championship coming in 2000 by way of Michigan State.
4. Rick Barnes and Tennessee break through to the Final Four
This is the lowest seed Tennessee has had under Rick Barnes at No. 6, but I really like their draw. They’ll open against the winner of the Miami (OH)/SMU play-in game, which shouldn’t be much of a problem, before a likely matchup with Virginia for a spot in the Sweet 16, and after that things would obviously get much more challenging.
The Vols are led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, one of the top point guards in college basketball, along with star freshman Nate Ament who’s back from injury. Ament has flown a bit under the radar in a loaded freshman class, but he has the talent to make serious noise this tournament.
Barnes has taken the Vols to the Elite Eight in each of the past two seasons, and wouldn’t it be funny if the year no one is really talking about Tennessee ends up being the one where they finally break through to the Final Four?
5. Hurley and Cronin meet in the second round and neither gets a technical
It would not be crazy to see UConn and UCLA both advance to the second round for a matchup in the Round of 32. But in what could be one of the most entertaining coaching matchups of all time, I’ll make the bold claim that neither coach picks up a technical.
Dan Hurley and Mick Cronin are two of the most fiery and entertaining personalities in all of sports. If this matchup does happen, fans deserve an alternate broadcast that only shows the coaches during the game and the post-game press conferences would be must-watch television.