Caleb Wilson is set to make his commitment on Thursday and the 2025 five-star forward is down to three schools, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. While the highly-coveted Atlanta native and third-highest-ranked uncommitted recruit in the class was trending to become a Wildcat, ON3.com reporter Joe Tipton now thinks that the Tar Heels have the inside track.
“A couple of weeks ago, maybe even early last week, I did think that Kentucky was the firm leader,” Tipton said on Here Comes the Boom, a Kentucky Sports Radio show. “It turned out there were some real legs to the UNC rumors,” Tipton continued, “As we head down this final stretch, it does look like North Carolina is now in the driver’s seat.”
Tipton added that UNC donors and boosters are “confident heading into Wilson’s Thursday announcement.” Wilson’s commitment would be a significant loss for Mark Pope and Kentucky, and maybe even a bigger get for Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels. Kentucky’s current three-player 2025 recruiting class is ranked No. 6 in the country and while Wilson would be Pope’s highest-ranked recruit, Jasper Johnson, Malachi Moreno, and Acaden Lewis are all ranked inside the 247Sports top 35.
North Carolina, on the other hand, is lagging behind on the recruiting trail after making a big splash in 2024 with the fifth-ranked class. Five-star freshman Ian Jackson, the headliner of that group, is UNC’s second-leading scorer, averaging 14.7 points on 48.3% shooting, but the program’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked 32nd nationally with just two recruits, who unfortunately for Hubert Davis are both guards.
The Tar Heels are currently 12-8 (5-3) heading into Wilson’s Thursday commitment after a 67-66 loss to Wake Forest on Tuesday night and are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Davis’s team desperately lacks a frontcourt presence after the departure of Armando Bacot after a historic five-year career, and while there’s no way to rectify that problem this year, the 6-foot-9 five-star could be the solution for next year’s roster.
At Kentucky, Pope was able to flip his roster in his first offseason after taking the job, and has the Wildcats at No. 9 in the country, primarily with transfer portal additions. Pope is off to a 14-4 start with a 3-2 record in conference play, so if Wilson does commit to North Carolina it may not seem devastating, but the problem with building through the transfer portal is that next offseason, you almost always have to do it again.
Center Brandon Garrison will have two years of eligibility remaining after this season, but Drexel transfer Amari Williams, Wake Forest transfer Andrew Carr, and Fairleigh Dickinson transfer Ansley Almonor are all in their final year. Pope's second offseason in Lexington should be about establishing a long-term foundation, and though there's always one-and-done risk, a five-star like Wilson at least has the opportunity to stay in town past his first season.