On Saturday, Alabama had a chance to stake its claim as the No. 1 team in the country, but the No. 2 Crimson Tide fell short to No. 1 Auburn 94-85 in Tuscaloosa. Nate Oats’ team fell to No. 4 in Monday’s AP Poll, but still has just two losses in a loaded SEC this season and is firmly in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama and Auburn will meet again in the final game of the regular season, but before that daunting matchup, the Crimson Tide has something of an SEC gauntlet to navigate. Every team remaining on Alabama’s schedule was ranked in the most recent AP Poll, including No. 1 Auburn, No. 2 Florida, and No. 6 Tennessee. However, first up for the Crimson Tide is No. 15 Missouri.
Dennis Gate’s upstart Tigers are one of the best stories in the country this season with wins over Kansas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. Though, this is the best opportunity remaining on the schedule for Gates’s team to prove it belongs as a true SEC contender and Final Four-caliber team. Mizzou is a slight home underdog but may be well-positioned to pull off the upset. Here’s how you can watch this conference showdown on SEC Network.
How to watch No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 15 Missouri
- Date: Wednesday, February 19
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mizzou Arena
- How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Alabama record: 21-4 (10-2)
- Missouri record: 19-6 (8-4)
Alabama vs. Missouri odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Alabama -120
- Missouri +100
Spread
- Alabama -1.5 (-110)
- Missouri +1.5 (-110)
Total
- 170.5 (over -105/under -115)
Alabama injury report
- Houston Mallette, G: Questionable (knee)
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G: OUT (Achilles)
Missouri injury report
- N/A
Missouri and Alabama series history
- Missouri all-time record vs. Alabama: 7-15
- Alabama 4-0 in last 4 meetings
Alabama vs. Missouri prediction
Typically, a letdown game comes after a massive win, but with the magnitude of Alabama’s weekend loss to Auburn, it could still be difficult for the Crimson Tide to be completely focused on this matchup with these Tigers. And, if Oats’s group arrives in Columbia with any other than its A-game, they could be in trouble.
With a balanced attack led by senior guard Tamar Bates and Duke transfer Mark Mitchell, Missouri is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, ranking 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency by Kenpom. With three 40% three-point shooters in the regular rotation and Bates at 39%, the Tigers have the type of offensive firepower to keep pace with Alabama’s run-and-gun style. Mizzou shoots 37.1% from deep as a team, which is much better than Bama’s season-long mark of 33.6% (though that has increased to 37.1% over the last 10 games).
This is expected to be a high-scoring affair and one of the biggest indicators of that isn’t the three-point prowess, it’s how often these teams get to the free-throw line. For a game to clear an incredibly high total, it needs to have points scored with the clock stopped and these two SEC foes are two of the best at it. Missouri gets to the free throw line at a 48.3% rate (99th percentile according to CBBanalytics) and Alabmaa gets there at a 42.1% rate (95th percentile).
I’ll favor Alabama to win a close one with plenty of points.