After looking at the Bracketology in the Big Ten, we'll turn our focus to the Big East. Our house rules will all still apply. We’ll help break down the crazy complexity of college basketball metrics while celebrating the wonderful sport that it is.
As we fearlessly push towards March Madness, we'll provide insight for each conference & each team in or near the bracket — from locks to the bubble — we have you covered. Let’s jump in, shall we?
A friendly reminder of our evaluation process:
A 'lock' = Absolutely positively making the NCAA Tournament. While a locked team's seed can fluctuate, they are going dancing.
All efficiency rankings are utilized from: https://kenpom.com/
NET = NCAA-sponsored ranking system intended to help evaluate a team's resume.
WAB = Wins Above Bubble - Metric used to compare a team's performance to how a traditional bubble team would perform with a similar schedule.
BIG EAST
Before we can truly move on, we undoubtedly have to mention the past. It was a very dark day on the east coast, March 17th, 2024. A day that started with much optimism and ended in major frustration. Just days before Madison Square Garden was rocking, Gus Johnson was screaming ("Ha! Ha!"), Bill Raftery was shouting "Onions!" and the Big East as it has so many times was THE watch for prime-time conference tournament games. And then..............
Only three teams (UConn, Marquette & Creighton) were selected for the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Hope for four, five or maybe even six (St. John's, Seton Hall & Providence) all were left at the alter on that cruel Sunday. Frustration reigned, but in the end, Dan Hurley and his determined Huskies got the last laugh. UConn raised another banner, providing some semblance of revenge for the league.
So as we turn the page, we can't help but think that the selection committee just might give one of their teams the benefit of the doubt on the bubble this year. While it may not be a banner year in terms of quality from top to bottom this year, the league will receive at minimum four bids and the Big East still remains a must-watch: Dan Hurley's outbursts on the sidelines are only outdone by his trash-talking to fans postgame after road wins. Rick Pitino has not only made St. John's relevant again but he's made Madison Square Garden the place to be in NYC. Creighton is doing Creighton reliable tournament-bound things (like shooting the ball extremely well) as they so often do, and Marquette remains the beacon of light that not all teams need the transfer portal to be successful.
Locks: St. John's & Marquette
Almost Locks: Creighton & UConn
Bubble: Xavier
St. John's (23-4, NET 20, WAB 17) - Projected 4 Seed
The Johnnies last won the Big East in the 1991-1992 regular season. Enter Rick Pitino and his legendary tenacity. The Red Storm owns the nation's second most efficient defense per KenPom, and they sure need it because their offense can struggle at times (341st in the nation in 3pt shooting percentage). Seton Hall transfer Kadary Richmond is the glue that holds the Jonnies together averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists per game. While St. John's does not own the quantity of Quad 1 wins (3-4 in Quad 1) to push them to a 1 or 2 seed, they very likely will end up between the 3 - 5 seedlines with a Big East regular season title - and a defense that can absolutely lead them to a Final Four. Enjoy the ride, it's been a bit.
Marquette (20-6, NET 23, WAB 19) - Projected 5 Seed
Shaka Smart never seemed quite comfortable at the University of Texas. He has always seemed to thrive in the underdog role (re: VCU's Final Four run circa 2011). But goodness he has found the right home at Marquette. Don't forget, the Golden Eagles were a 2-Seed in the past two NCAA Tournaments. This year they seemed on their way for a similar path, until a recent three-game losing streak. But fear not, Senior star Kam Jones (19 points, 4 rebounds & 6 assists per game) and a VERY favorable closing stretch should get them back on track and likely in the 4-5 seed range come Selection Sunday.
Creighton (18-8, NET 37, WAB 30) - Projected 8 Seed
Greg McDermott has set an incredibly high standard at Creighton, and this year seems like a bit of a down year, but they are still very much on track not only for an at-large selection - but a single-digit seed - and a home uniform for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. McDermott navigated a bumpy 9-6 start to win 9 in a row. Lead guard Steven Ashworth is one of the most steady, consistent players in the nation and Ryan Kalkbrenner stabilizes a very solid defense. Is it a banner year, no - but so many other basketball programs would trade in a heartbeat.
UConn (18-8, NET 36, WAB 40) - Projected 8 Seed
The burden of being back-to-back National Champions is not easy. Each road game is the game of the year for their opponent. Each Danny Hurley exacerbated sideline moment is magnified. UConn surprisingly went 0-3 in Maui, in November (losses to Memphis, Colorado & Dayton), but rebounded for their most crucial resume-building stretch of the season in early December (wins over Baylor, Texas & Marquette). Add road wins at Marquette & Creighton and UConn will be dancing again. But the reality is that the Huskies over the past few years have made their living with hard-nosed defense. That simply isn't the case this season. Their defensive efficiency ranks 93rd in the nation. Their only path to another Final Four run is to start guarding better - and soon.
Xavier (17-10, NET 51, WAB 55) - Projected First Four Out
Just like Creighton, just like UConn - the Musketeers aren't having a typical standout season either. But I bring good news X fans! Here you sit at 17-10 and you will be favored in your remaining 4 regular season! Ok, so let's math: 17+4 = 21. 21-10 doesn't sound so bad amongst a weak bubble and SEC/Big 12 teams beating the mess out of each other alternating win/loss/win/loss and having 14 losses. So have hope, you're not done yet!