Texas Tech and Arizona split their two regular-season Big 12 meetings and now they get the rubber match in the conference semifinals on Friday night in Kansas City. On Thursday, the No. 2 seed Red Raiders narrowly escaped upset-minded Baylor 76-74 behind a 26-point performance from Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin. Toppin has been dominant over the last month of the season, but Grant McCasland’s team also got an 11-assist outing from Elijah Hawkins to open postseason play.
For years the Big 12 Tournament has been the Bill Self invitational, but Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats sent Self’s Jayhawks packing with an 88-77 win. It was a huge day for Lloyd’s bench with Henri Veesaar and KJ Lewis contributing 19 apiece. Arizona will need its depth to show through again on Friday to secure a spot in the conference championship game opposite the winner of Houston and BYU.
Here’s how you can watch this huge matchup during a loaded slate of conference tournament games on Friday.
How to watch Arizona vs. Texas Tech
- Date: Friday, March 14
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Arizona record: 21-11 (14-6)
- Texas Tech record: 25-7 (15-5)
Arizona vs. Texas Tech odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Arizona +116
- Texas Tech -140
Spread
- Arizona +2.5 (-106)
- Texas Tech -2.5 (-114)
Total
- 152.5 (over -110/under -110)
Arizona injury report
- Motiejus Krivas, C: OUT (lower leg)
Texas Tech injury report
- Eemeli Yalaho, F: Questionable (upper body)
- Jazz Henderson, G: OUT (lower body)
Texas Tech and Arizona series history
- Texas Tech all-time record vs. Arizona: 29-25
Arizona vs. Texas Tech prediction
The outcome of this game could be determined by which team can make the other play on their terms. In February, Arizona sped Texas Tech up in an 82-73 win with a 25-16 fast-break scoring advantage. The Wildcats pushed the pace every opportunity they got and outrebounded the Red Raiders 42-29 in Tucson. Caleb Love was wildly inefficient, shooting 4-15, but it didn’t matter because Lloyd’s group overwhelmed McCasland’s and got to the free-throw line more than twice as often.
However, in January, Texas Tech slowed their matchup in Lubbock to a crawl, winning despite scoring three fast-break points all game. The Red Raiders didn’t let Arizona run, despite shooting 36.1% from the field and presenting transition opportunities and the slow pace frustrated the Wildcats. Love went 3-13, and Arizona shot a putrid 31% from the field.
Texas Tech needs to slow the pace and defensive rebound against an Arizona team that is very aggressive and effective on the offensive boards. Arizona needs to speed the game up because they have a 93rd-percentile field goal percentile in transition compared to 74th percentile in the half-court (according to CBBanalytics.com). Texas Tech’s efficiency is flipped, favoring a half-court style.
Under Tommy Lloyd Arizona has faced this exact dilemma in March almost every year: there are more ways to slow down a team that wants to run than there are to speed up a team that wants to play methodically. I think Texas Tech controls the pace on Friday night, shuts off Love’s water for the third time, and lets JT Toppin, the most underratedly dominant player in the country, take over. Give me the Red Raiders in a close one.