Bracketology: Bubble heating up as March arrives

Houston has been dethroned of the final No. 1 seed amid their three-game losing streak, as UConn snags the final top seed after cruising to victory against conference-rival St. John's
Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22)
Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

It has been yet another eventful week in college basketball. Kansas avenged their shocking loss last Saturday to Cincinnati by handing Houston their third straight loss, the first time the Cougars have lost three straight since 2017. Houston's loss bumps them back down to a No. 2 seed as UConn retakes a No. 1 spot after obliterating St. John's on Wednesday night. In the ACC, Virginia has stayed red hot as they took down both Miami (FL) and North Carolina St. this week, meanwhile North Carolina took care of business against Louisville to improve to 16-0 at home this season.

Michigan State has been a dark horse in the Big Ten all season long and are now on a win streak of their own as they defeated Purdue at Mackey Arena on Thursday night. The Spartans will have tough games against Indiana and Michigan in two of their last three regular season games.

The bubble is boiling up once again. UCLA has earned a bye from the First Four after a massive win versus Illinois, followed by a dominating win against crosstown rival USC. USC has now lost four straight games and find themselves as the second team out. The Trojans will have a crucial game Saturday afternoon against Nebraska. Staying in the Big Ten, Indiana surrendered a brutal quad 3 loss on Tuesday against a struggling Northwestern team.

The Hoosiers have dropped to the last team in and finish their regular season with Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State. Moving on, Missouri continues to improve their résumé after upsetting Tennessee on Tuesday night, similarly, TCU continued to win games this week as well. Sticking with the Big 12, Oklahoma State finally ended their five game losing streak by beating West Virginia this week. This win puts the Cowboys back in the Next Four Out, as they will control their own destiny with three critical games versus Cincinnati, UCF and Houston.

The California Golden Bears are giving their fellow bubble teams a run for their money. Cal defeated SMU on Wednesday night and as they are now the first team out, they do not have any opponents above .500 on their remaining schedule. Lastly, San Diego State showed the committee they have not given up yet. The Aztecs crushed the first-place Utah State Aggies to boost them after back-to-back losses.

With just over a week of the regular season remaining, many, if not most of the teams in consideration of the tournament can make or break their cases for the big dance with their last few games. Many teams will be forced to put work in during their conference tournaments, as well as having to pull for bubble peers to fall. To say the least, the madness is on the way.

Bracket is forecasted on games through February 26.

Bubble Watch:

Last Four Byes: Texas A&M, Missouri, UCLA, Santa Clara

Last Four In: TCU, Ohio St., Auburn, Indiana

First Four Out: Cal, USC, San Diego St., New Mexico

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, VCU, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall

Tahaad Pettifor
Auburn Tigers guard Tahaad Pettiford (0) goes up for a layup as Auburn Tigers take on Vanderbilt Commodores at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala. on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. Vanderbilt Commodores defeated Auburn Tigers 84-76. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

East (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville

(1) Duke (ACC) vs. (16) UMBC (America East)/(16) Morehead St. (OVC)

(8) UCF vs. (9) Iowa

Tampa

(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Belmont (MVC)

(4) Virginia vs. (13) Yale (Ivy)

Tampa

(6) Villanova vs. (11) TCU/(11) Indiana

(3) Purdue vs. (14) Austin Peay (ASUN)

Saint Louis

(7) North Carolina St. vs. (10) Missouri

(2) Iowa St. vs. (15) Wright St. (Horizon)

Malik Thoma
Feb 7, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Malik Thomas (1) encourages his teammates before the game against the Syracuse Orange at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images | Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo

(1) Michigan (Big Ten) vs. (16) Merrimack (MAAC)

(8) Miami (FL) vs. (9) Georgia

Portland

(5) St. John's vs. (12) Liberty (C-USA)

(4) Tennessee vs. (13) East Tennessee St. (SoCon)

Buffalo

(6) Louisville vs. (11) Santa Clara

(3) Nebraska vs. (14) North Dakota St. (Summit)

Saint Louis

(7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Clemson

(2) Houston vs. (15) Navy (Patriot)

Malik Reneau
Dec 2, 2025; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Miami Hurricanes forward Malik Reneau (5) reacts during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

West (San José)

San Diego

(1) Arizona (Big 12) vs. (16) Morgan St. (MEAC)/(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)

(8) Kentucky vs. (9) SMU

Greenville

(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

(4) Michigan St. vs. (13) Hawai'i (Big West)

Portland

(6) Saint Louis (A10) vs. (11) UCLA

(3) Gonzaga (WCC) vs. (14) Utah Valley (WAC)

Oklahoma City

(7) BYU vs. (10) Texas

(2) Illinois vs. (15) Portland St. (Big Sky)

Graham Ik
Feb 21, 2026; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (15) spins past Pacific Tigers center Kc Ibekwe (24) in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Gonzaga Bulldogs won 71-62. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

South (Houston)

Philadelphia

(1) UConn (Big East) vs. (16) Long Island (NEC)

(8) Miami (OH) (MAC) vs. (9) St. Mary's

San Diego

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) South Florida (American)

(4) Alabama vs. (13) High Point (Big South)

Philadelphia

(6) North Carolina vs. (11) Auburn/(11) Ohio St.

(3) Kansas vs. (14) UC Irvine (Big West)

Oklahoma City

(7) Utah St. (Mountain West) vs. (10) Texas A&M

(2) Florida (SEC) vs. (15) Marshall (Sun Belt)

Solo Ball
Feb 25, 2026; Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies guard Solo Ball (1) , guard Malachi Smith (0) and forward Alex Karaban (11) react during a break against the St. John's Red Storm in the second half at PeoplesBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

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