Bracketology: Houston takes control of final No. 1 seed

The latest bracket projections with Selection Sunday now just under a month away.
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

There has been a shake-up amongst the top seeded teams. UConn's devastating loss to Creighton on Wednesday night means that the Huskies have found themselves losing possession of the last No. 1 seed. Stepping in their place is Houston (23-3, 11-2), who now find themselves atop the Big 12 with Arizona in a tight battle for the conference.

In the Big Ten, Illinois is coming off of two dominant wins against Indiana and USC and have proved why they are a No. 2 seed in the latest projected bracket. The Illini will have two more battle tests in the next week on the road at UCLA, and at home versus No. 1 Michigan. Villanova has been elevated to a No. 6 seed as they continue to win in the Big East. They will have a matchup with No. 5 UConn on Saturday. Additionally, Clemson continues to slide after a third straight loss, this time to Wake Forest.

The bubble is shaping out to be as exciting as usual. Missouri and Ohio State were able to secure signature wins this week to significantly help their tournament cases. In the Big Ten, USC and UCLA have both been sliding down the bubble after each losing their last two games. They will face off against each other on Tuesday. Like the California schools, Auburn, San Diego State and New Mexico all have work to do on their respective resumes.

Auburn now finds themselves as the last team in after losing each of their last five games. Looking into the teams just outside of the bubble, TCU, Oklahoma State and Cal all have very encouraging schedules for the rest of the season and will each have chances to improve their cases for the big dance. Heading out to the Atlantic 10, VCU has been having an electric season. As they creep into the First Four Out, their best chance to make the tournament will be by way of the automatic bid, especially after surrendering a loss to first-place Saint Louis. For Virginia Tech, they will need to dig deep and give two of the ACC's top teams (No. 16 North Carolina and No. 14 Virginia) a run for their money.

Bracket is forecasted on games through February 20.

Bubble Watch:

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Ohio St.

Last Four In: Santa Clara, USC, UCLA, Auburn

First Four Out: San Diego St., New Mexico, TCU, VCU

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Cal, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall

TCU Basketball
Feb 14, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward David Punch (15) sets the play during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo

(1) Michigan (Big Ten) vs. (16) Merrimack (MAAC)

(8) North Carolina St. vs. (9) Miami (OH) (MAC)

Portland

(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Belmont (MVC)

(4) Virginia vs. (13) Utah Valley (WAC)

Buffalo

(6) Kentucky vs. (11) Santa Clara/(11) USC

(3) Nebraska vs. (14) Austin Peay (ASUN)

Saint Louis

(7) Utah St. (Mountain West) vs. (10) Indiana

(2) Iowa St. vs. (15) Wright St. (Horizon)

Darius Acuff Jr.
Feb 18, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Arkansas Razorback guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) dribbles a fast break during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | David Leong-Imagn Images

West (San José)

San Diego

(1) Arizona (Big 12) vs. (16) Long Island (NEC)

(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) SMU

Greenville

(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

(4) Michigan St. vs. (13) UNC Wilmington (CAA)

Portland

(6) Villanova vs. (11) Ohio St.

(3) Gonzaga (WCC) vs. (14) Troy (Sun Belt)

Oklahoma City

(7) BYU vs. (10) Texas

(2) Illinois vs. (15) Portland St. (Big Sky)

Tyler Tanner
Feb 14, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) drives baseline against the Texas A&M Aggies during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

East (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville

(1) Duke (ACC) vs. (16) UMBC (America East)/(16) SEMO (OVC)

(8) Iowa vs. (9) UCF

Tampa

(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Liberty (C-USA)

(4) St. John's (Big East) vs. (13) Yale (Ivy)

Tampa

(6) Louisville vs. (11) Missouri

(3) Purdue vs. (14) East Tennessee St. (SoCon)

Saint Louis

(7) Saint Louis (A10) vs. (10) Miami (FL)

(2) UConn vs. (15) Navy (Patriot)

Cameron Boozer
Feb 16, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) brings the ball around Syracuse Orange forward Sadiq White Jr. (0) during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

South (Houston)

Philadelphia

(1) Houston vs. (16) Howard (MEAC)/(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)

(8) Saint Mary's vs. (9) Georgia

San Diego

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) South Florida (American)

(4) Alabama vs. (13) High Point (Big South)

Philadelphia

(6) North Carolina vs. (11) UCLA/(11) Auburn

(3) Kansas vs. (14) UC Irvine (Big West)

Oklahoma City

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Texas A&M

(2) Florida vs. (15) North Dakota St. (Summit)

Darryn Peterson
Feb 7, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) dunks the ball Utah Utes forward Seydou Traore (0) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

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