While a tough road loss in Houston and an inexplicable defeat at Oklahoma State dropped Iowa State to No. 10 in the latest AP Top 25 and out of contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, TJ Otzelberger’s Cyclones are finally getting healthy, and could still peak at the right time. On Saturday, senior guard Keshon Gilbert made his return to the floor after missing two games and despite his poor shooting performance, helped lift Iowa State to an 84-67 win over Arizona in Ames.
Now, on Tuesday night, the Cyclones at back at Hilton Coliseum hosting No. 23 BYU for their penultimate regular season contest of the year. Speaking of peaking at the right time, the Cougars have won six straight, and if Kevin Young’s team can knock off Iowa State on the road, they’ll be a clear threat to win the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
The Cougars balanced offensive attack will test Iowa State’s lock-down defense, but now that they’re back at full-strength, the Cyclones are big home favorites. Here’s how you can catch this Big 12 matchup on ESPN2.
How to watch BYU vs. Iowa State
- Date: Tuesday, March 4
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: James H. Hilton Coliseum
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Streaming: fubo TV
- BYU record: 21-8 (12-6)
- Iowa State record: 22-7 (12-6)
BYU vs. Iowa State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- BYU +360
- Iowa State -480
Spread
- BYU +9.5 (-110)
- Iowa State -9.5 (-110)
Total
- 150.5 (over -110/under -110)
BYU injury report
- Kanon Catchings, F: Questionable (knee)
Iowa State injury report
- Conrad Hawley, F: OUT (shoulder)
Iowa State and BYU series history
- Iowa State all-time record vs. BYU: 7-1
BYU vs. Iowa State prediction
Keshon Gilbert finished with six points and shot 2/8 from the field on Saturday against Arizona, yet despite shaking off the rust, he was a plus-three in the 17-point win. Milan Momcilovic has the team’s highest net rating differential, with a net rating 18.6 points better when he’s on the floor, but Gilbert is second with a positive net rating differential of 10.0 (according to CBBanalytics.com).
Gilbert impacts the Cyclones profoundly on both ends of the floor as a hyper-efficient scorer and disruptive defender. He has the second-highest usage rate at 23.9% and the best usage-to-assist rate at 1.05. Offensively, Iowa State flows better with Gilbert healthy, and he’ll be much better than the seven-turnover outing he submitted on Saturday.
Outside of Gilbert, the Cyclones do not allow their opponents to get good shots, or get to the free-throw line. The latter won’t be a concern for the perimeter-focused Cougars, but the former is a problem for any team. BYU is 12th in Kenpom offensive efficiency, and 200th in tempo, but Young’s group will need to play faster than that on Tuesday night.
Iowa State allows opponents to shoot just 38.1% from the field when they play in the half court, but in transition, the Cyclones allow a 59.2% field goal percentage. BYU thrives in the half-court but will need to push the pace and get to the rim, where Iowa State can be vulnerable. If BYU runs, it can win this game, but I expect Otzelberger to sniff that out and control the tempo at Hilton.
Gilbert’s return and a hostile home crowd make it tough to pick against Iowa State. Though I see a path to an upset for BYU, I’ll take the Cyclones to win comfortably.