Nobody has taken more Ls over the past year than Drake. No, not the Bulldogs, they’re 20-2 and firmly atop the Missouri Valley Conference after a 55-45 Tuesday night win over the Murray State Racers. I guess you could call the one I’m talking about, the other Drake. The not-so-implicit subject of Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” which went a perfect 5-0 at the Grammy’s on Sunday night, sweeping the major awards winning Song and Record of the Year, and the song that will be performed in front of millions on Super Bowl Sunday.
With “the other Drake” resorting to lawsuits because he lost his rap beef so badly, there’s space for the first-year head coach Ben McCollum’s team to grab center stage this spring.
Darian DeVries built a Missouri Valley powerhouse over his six-year stint in Des Moines, but in his three appearances, could never get the Bulldogs past the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Still, DeVries caught the eye of West Virginia, which made him the permanent replacement for Bob Huggins, and when he left last offseason, he took his son, best player, and the only four-star recruit in Drake history, Tucker, with him.
With the DeVries on their way to Morgantown, point guard Atin Wright left for North Texas, freshman wing Kevin Overton went to Texas Tech, guard Conor Enright fled for DePaul, and the rest of the roster was gutted. Yet, McCollum, an Iowa native who spent the last 15 years winning four national championships at DII Northwest Missouri State, rebuilt the program on the fly and has the Bulldogs’ sights set back on a ticket to the Big Dance.
Tuesday night’s win at Murray State avenged an early season loss to the Racers, which ended Drake’s 28-game home win streak, dating back to DeVries tenure. The loss came four days after a 74-70 defeat at the hands of UIC, but the Bulldogs have handled everybody else, including Miami, Kansas State, and Vanderbilt. They’re 1-0 in Quad 1 games, 2-1 in Quad 2, and are 56th in the Net Rankings.
McCollum’s team doesn’t play a fast-paced, high-flying style; quite the opposite, but that doesn’t mean fans won’t fall in love with this potential Cinderella if they make a deep run in March. While “the other Drake” wisely stayed away from music’s biggest night, the Bulldogs are the favorites to claim the MVC’s only bid to the big dance.
Can Drake punch its ticket to March Madness?
When McCollum made the jump from DII Northwest Missouri State, he didn’t arrive in Des Moines empty-handed. He brought his point guard with him. Bennett Stirtz was just a Second-Team All-MIAA selection in each of his two years with McCollum, but he’s almost certainly going to be a First-Team All-MVC selection, and maybe even the league’s player of the year.
The 6-foot-4 point guard leads the MVC in points, assists, steals, and leads the country in minutes played. Though, it may be a bit easier to log such a heavy workload because Drake plays at the slowest pace in the country (364th in Kenpom adjusted tempo). McCollum’s arrival might be why Tony Bennett was suddenly ready to walk into the sunset knowing methodical basketball will never die.
While his slow pace doesn’t exactly jive with the other coaches playing “mathsketball” that typically lean into an up-tempo attack, McCollum does have an analytically driven approach to the offensive end. 35% of the Bulldog’s shots come at the rim (81st percentile) and another 21.2% come in the paint (76th percentile), while just 7.5% are mid-range twos, generally considered the least efficient shots in the sport.
The relentless pursuit of layups has led to a 54.6% effective field goal percentage (88th percentile), and a tremendous amount of trips to the free throw line. Drake’s free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 42.9% is 96th percentile. Though if that efficient attack doesn’t create separation in a low-possession contest, the Bulldogs almost always manage to earn a few extra.
Remember when I mentioned that Stirtz is first in the MVC in steals? Well, the 6-foot-4 point guard averages 2.5 a game, which is top 10 in the country on the team that plays fewer possessions than any other. Stirtz is a legitimately dominant two-way force who is an elite finisher at the rim, a knockdown three-point shooter off the dribble and the catch, and he’s only getting better.
Bennett Stirtz | Season (percentile) | Last 5 games (percentile) |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 19.0 | 23.0 |
Effective Field Goal % | 54.7% (80th) | 61.6% (96th) |
Three-Point FG % | 34.8% (59th) | 64.3% (99th) |
Free-Throw Attempt % | 43% (81st) | 55.1% (92nd) |
Usage Rate | 25.5% (88th) | 28.8% (95th) |
Assist % | 36.2% (99th) | 33.2% (98th) |
Turnover % | 10.8% (77th) | 7.5% (94th) |
He’s capable of carrying Drake through the MVC tournament and the continued emergence of 6-foot-7 junior transfer Tavion Banks as one of Stirtz’s favorite pick-and-roll partners with the spacing of spot-up specialist Mitch Mascari, the Bulldogs will continue to get good shots.
Over 20 spots above the next highest-ranked MVC team, Bradley in the Net and 35 spots ahead in Kenpom, Drake is the big favorite to win the conference, but what could go wrong?
Why the slipper may not fit the Bulldogs
A low-possesion style with a superstar on-ball creator is the ideal profile for a Cinderella March Madness run. The fewer possessions, the fewer opportunities for a team with superior talent and athleticism to impose its will. But that type of team can also fall victim to shooting variance because there is less time for water to find its level.
That’s what happened when UIC shot 57% from the field and 8/17 from three and when Murray State knocked down 55% of its shots and 46% from deep. And when Drake falls behind, it's tough for the Bulldogs to climb their way out of a deficit.
They’ve only trailed for more than 10 minutes four times this year (3-1), and have only trailed by double digits once (0-1). If they find themselves behind early in March, I’m not sure they can play fast enough to catch up. Drake isn’t dissimilar from a run-first NFL team that leans on play-action and struggles when they’re trailing and their quarterback is forced to dropback 20 times in the second half; think the 49ers with Brock Purdy or Eagles with Jalen Hurts.
Drake already feels like a popular 12-5 upset pick, but an up-tempo, major conference, five-seed with athletes all over the court who thrive in transition, maybe an Arizona, could be their kryptonite – their Kendrick Lamar if you will. And the 2018 Loyola Chicago and 2013 Wichita State teams that turned Arch Madness wins into March Madness runs, will be saying 2025 Drake is not like us.
Cinderella Search Committee Watchlist:
- George Mason (Jan 22)
- North Texas (Jan 30)
- Drake (February 5)