We’re now less than three weeks away from Selection Sunday and the release of the official NCAA Tournament bracket. This is the time of year when things really start to heat up in college basketball, especially for those on the bubble.
Several teams currently find themselves on or around the bubble and with only a few opportunities remaining, every game left means more. One win could be what gets you into the tournament, while at the same time, one bad loss could burst a team’s bubble and leave them at home for March Madness.
This week may be the most important of the season for bubble teams, as it is either the final or second-to-last week of the regular season. Wednesday night features three key and very winnable matchups for bubble teams to pick up statement wins against quality opponents.
Ohio State at Iowa (9:00 p.m. EST, BTN)
Ohio State finally picked up a big win last week against Wisconsin but couldn’t pull off the upset Sunday at Michigan State in a game that they led for much of the first half. The key word for the Buckeyes right now is Quad 1. As things currently stand, this road matchup at Iowa is a Quad 1 opportunity which is what Ohio State desperately needs as they continue to search for their first of the season. No team in the country may have a wider range of projections than the Buckeyes, who are in the field in some brackets and far out in others, but a win over Iowa on Wednesday would go a long way towards their tournament hopes.
Cal vs SMU (10:00 p.m. EST, ACCN)
Cal has played themselves right into the thick of the bubble with key wins in the past month over North Carolina, Miami, and two against Stanford. The Golden Bears will host an SMU team that is making its first trip out west this season. The Mustangs are currently projected comfortably inside the Field of 68, but not long ago, SMU appeared to be on the wrong side of the bubble. A win for Cal in this spot would be huge especially with their final three regular-season games coming against teams currently in the bottom third of the ACC in Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest.
Santa Clara at Saint Mary's (11:00 p.m. EST, CBSSN)
The WCC is looking to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament for just the fourth time ever, and that potential third bid appears to be coming down to Santa Clara. The Broncos have just six losses this season, but building a strong resume in the WCC is not easy, especially when you lose both games vs Gonzaga. In addition, they have some rough non-conference losses that could hurt them on the bubble, most notably a Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago. However, with a win over Saint Mary’s in their first meeting this season and a solid 7-1 Quad 2 record, the resume is respectable. If the Broncos can replicate that win over the Gaels on the road and avoid a bad loss in the WCC Tournament, it would likely secure their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996. It’s also worth noting that Saint Mary’s may not be a sure thing for the tournament just yet.
Other important bubble games this week:
- Missouri vs Mississippi State (Saturday)
- UCLA vs Minnesota (Saturday)
- San Diego State vs New Mexico (Saturday)
- Texas vs Texas A&M (Saturday)
- BYU vs West Virginia (Saturday)
- Baylor vs UCF (Saturday)
- Purdue vs Ohio State (Saturday)