Conference tournament chaos begins: Thursday’s best bets from Arch Madness to the Big Ten

Conference tournament season is heating up with Arch Madness tipping off in St. Louis and several key games across the country. From Drake and Southern Illinois in the Missouri Valley to Big Ten matchups featuring Michigan State and Michigan, here are the top betting picks and score predictions for Thursday’s college basketball slate.
Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo talks with Jeremy Fears Jr. (1)
Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo talks with Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Happy Thursday, sports fans.

We have another great day of conference tournament action ahead. Wednesday treated us fairly well as we went 3-2 on the day.

Our season record now sits at 285-268-1.

Let’s keep the momentum rolling and pick up some more wins on Thursday.

Be sure to follow all of our picks all season long at BetStamp.

Best Bets for Thursday, March 5, 2026

Here are the picks:

Drake Bulldogs vs. Southern Illinois Salukies

The first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off what fans know as Arch Madness in St. Louis. The MVC Tournament rarely disappoints, and this matchup should be another competitive battle.

Drake has enjoyed plenty of success in this tournament over the years, though this season has been a bit of a down one for the Bulldogs. They face a Southern Illinois team that finished the regular season at 16-15.

Expect Drake to lean on its tournament experience and perimeter shooting to stay right in this game. If the Bulldogs knock down shots early, they have a great chance to pull the upset.

Betting Pick: Drake Bulldogs +5.5 over Southern Illinois Salukies
Final Score Prediction: Drake 70, Southern Illinois 69

Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons

The second Missouri Valley Conference game features Indiana State taking on Valparaiso.

Indiana State enters with an 11-20 record, while the Beacons come in at 17-14. When these two teams met earlier this season, Valparaiso won by just a single point, so another tight contest would not be surprising.

Both teams should battle throughout, but Valparaiso appears to have the slight edge. Look for the Beacons to make just enough plays down the stretch to move on and face Bradley in the next round.

Betting Pick: Valparaiso Beacons -2.5 over Indiana State Sycamores
Final Score Prediction: Valparaiso 67, Indiana State 60

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Liberty Flames

Liberty handled Louisiana Tech the first time these two teams met, winning by 16 points on the road.

The Flames are 24-5 on the season and have won eight of their last ten games. They are also coming off a road victory at Jacksonville State.

While Liberty has not been playing its absolute best basketball recently, this matchup sets up well for them to regain momentum. Expect the Flames to control this game and secure a comfortable victory at home.

Betting Pick: Liberty Flames -8.5 over Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 80, Louisiana Tech 60

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is preparing for the Big Ten Tournament and still looking to strengthen its résumé heading into March Madness.

Rutgers, on the other hand, is not expected to make the NCAA Tournament and will be playing spoiler.

Even though this game may not drastically improve Michigan State’s profile, it is still a matchup the Spartans cannot afford to lose. Expect Michigan State to take care of business and potentially win by a wide margin.

Betting Pick: Michigan State Spartans -19.5 over Rutgers Scarlet Knights Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 82-60

Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes

Michigan has already wrapped up the Big Ten title but still has plenty to play for as it pushes for a potential No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Even after a loss to Duke, the Wolverines remain firmly in the national conversation.

Iowa, however, would love to grab a marquee résumé win before postseason play begins. The Hawkeyes should keep this one competitive, especially if they find success shooting from the perimeter.

Michigan may still escape with the win, but Iowa looks like the better play against the spread.

Betting Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +8.5 over Michigan Wolverines
Final Score Prediction: Michigan 75, Iowa 70

Enjoy the games tonight. Whether you fade or follow, be sure to track all of our picks throughout the season on BetStamp.

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