Oh, that classic 12-over-5 upset. There’s seemingly always at least one 12-seed moving onto the second round of the NCAA tournament every year and in 2025, Colorado State became the second to take out a No. 5. The Mountain West Tournament Champions took down fifth-seeded Memphis 78-70 in the West Region on Friday afternoon, and while Niko Medved’s Rams could be this year’s Cinderella story, don’t call their first-round win an upset.
In a bizarre twist, Colorado State was the pregame favorite by betting odds, laying -1.5 points against the American Athletic Conference champs. Rarely does a 5-12 matchup feature two mid-major programs, but with both teams coming out of mid-major conferences, there’s no argument that the Rams' run to the Mountain West title was much more impressive than the Tigers' claiming the lone bid from a severely diluted AAC.
Without Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati, which all left for the Big 12 two years ago, the AAC has sunk to become a one-bid league, primarily constructed from former Conference USA schools, and while the Pac-12 is currently barring down on the Moutain West, as its currently constructed it is easily the most difficult conference outside of the Power 4 and the Big East. Colorado State was one of four teams from the Mountain West to make the NCAA Tournament, joining New Mexico, Utah State, and San Diego State.
Memphis’s resume may not have been deserving of a five-seed, which immediately stuck out as a bizarre seeding decision from the Selection Committee, but it was clearly superior to Colorado State’s. The Tigers finished 29-6 with wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Clemson in the non-conference. Even if Penny Hardaway’s group had come up short in the conference tournament, they would have been in the field. That was not the case for Medved’s team, which was one of the few bid-stealers in Conference Championship week this year. However, you could certainly argue that the Rams were the better team heading into March Madness.
Colorado State started the season 5-5 before turning it on down the stretch, and after beating Memphis on Friday has won 11 in a row. By NET Rankings, Colorado State was two spots ahead of Memphis at No. 47, and the analytic discrepancy is even greater. The Rams rank 43 in Kenpom, six spots ahead of the Tigers. To make matters worse for Memphis, the Tigers were without their starting point guard Tyrese Hunter, who went down with an injury in the AAC Tournament. Hunter's expected absence was a big factor on the betting odds.
It’s no surprise that Colorado State pulled away in the second half for the first-round win, and it’s no upset. Seeding is a factor, but if Vegas expected a team to win and it does, you can’t call that an upset.