Winning the Big 12 is rarely about surviving one great opponent. It's about surviving all of them, often within a schedule that provides almost no opportunity to catch your breath after a difficult loss.
Arizona brings size, athleticism and another elite freshman. Houston will turn games into defensive battles. Texas Tech has assembled an experienced roster around the recovering JT Toppin. Iowa State has Tamin Lipsey back but must navigate the first portion of the season without injured sophomore Killyan Toure, while Kansas will ask one of the country's most talented freshman classes to grow up quickly.
BYU deserves serious consideration as well, particularly because Rob Wright III gives the Cougars elite guard play. Jaxon Kohler's unresolved eligibility situation, however, creates enough uncertainty in the frontcourt that BYU sits immediately outside our top five for now.
Arizona: The favorite has the strongest foundation
Arizona's case begins with an established interior foundation. Krivas gives the Wildcats a 7-foot-2 center capable of affecting games at both ends, while Kharchenkov returns after gaining valuable postseason experience. Holt provides immediate star potential, and Dixon and Godfrey give Lloyd additional high-major talent.
The biggest question involves how quickly Arizona establishes its new perimeter hierarchy, but the Wildcats don't need Holt to become a superstar immediately. There is enough proven talent around him to absorb the early-season adjustment period. If Holt does emerge quickly, Arizona's ceiling extends far beyond the Big 12 championship race.
Houston: Kelvin Sampson makes the Cougars a permanent contender
Houston has reached the point where roster turnover doesn't dramatically change the expectation. The Cougars defend, rebound and force opponents to execute for 40 minutes, and Sampson has created a program where newcomers quickly learn that playing time depends on embracing those standards.
Tugler gives Houston an established defensive centerpiece, while Thomas brings extensive experience to the backcourt. Weaver, Miller and Gillespie are also listed on the current roster, giving Sampson multiple veteran options around his returning core. Houston may have to manufacture offense differently than it has in previous seasons, but the Cougars' defensive floor remains high enough to make them legitimate Big 12 champions.
Texas Tech: The roster became too good to ignore
Texas Tech's offseason changed substantially as experienced players continued joining or returning to the roster. The Red Raiders now officially list Toppin, Williams, Atwell, Davis, Gibbs-Lawhorn and Stillwell among a group with enough proven production to compete immediately.
Everything becomes more interesting if Toppin returns near his previous level. He was averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds before tearing his right ACL in February, and Texas Tech shouldn't rush him simply because the roster has championship expectations. The good news is that McCasland now has enough experience around Toppin to remain dangerous while his star continues working toward full strength. A healthy Toppin later in the season could turn an already strong team into one of the league's most difficult opponents.
Iowa State: Tamin Lipsey has to guide the Cyclones through an early challenge
Lipsey's return gives Iowa State a proven point guard, elite perimeter defender and program leader during a season when several other players must assume larger roles. That continuity keeps the Cyclones in the championship discussion even after substantial roster movement.
The complication is Toure's shoulder injury. Iowa State announced that the sophomore is expected to return in January after undergoing surgery in August, meaning the Cyclones will begin the season without a player who started all 37 games as a freshman. If Iowa State can remain near the top of the standings picture until Toure returns, it could become significantly more dangerous during the heart of conference play. The championship path is therefore less straightforward, but it absolutely exists.
Kansas: Tyran Stokes gives the Jayhawks enormous upside
Kansas may have the highest-variance roster among these five teams because so much depends on young players becoming important immediately. Stokes is the centerpiece. His size, strength and skill give Self the type of freshman capable of becoming one of the country's best players before his first season is finished.
Kinney provides another talented freshman guard, while Dawes, Reeves and Mbiya give Kansas experience and size around the younger perimeter group. White's situation remains unresolved from an official-roster standpoint. Reports have connected him with a return following legal relief, but Kansas' official 2026-27 roster does not currently list him, so we're not building the Jayhawks' championship case around his availability.
Even without White, Kansas has enough talent to win this league. The question is how quickly the freshmen become dependable enough to do it.
BYU is right outside the five
BYU could make this section outdated quickly because Wright gives the Cougars exactly the kind of veteran point guard capable of winning difficult Big 12 games. His scoring efficiency and playmaking provide a strong foundation, and BYU has added enough surrounding talent to enter the season with legitimate NCAA Tournament expectations.
Kohler is the variable preventing BYU from moving into our top five right now. He is enrolled and practicing with the Cougars and remains temporarily eligible under a court order, but the preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled to continue Oct. 20. His availability for the regular season therefore cannot yet be treated as settled. If Kohler receives longer-term eligibility, BYU's frontcourt outlook improves substantially and the Cougars become an even stronger championship candidate.
The Big 12 champion will earn it
Arizona may have the cleanest preseason profile, but none of these teams enters without questions. Houston needs its reconstructed offense to develop. Texas Tech is monitoring Toppin's recovery. Iowa State must survive the opening months without Toure. Kansas is asking freshmen to become major contributors immediately.
Then there is BYU waiting immediately behind them with one of the league's best guards and an eligibility situation that could alter its ceiling.
That's what makes the Big 12 so difficult to project. The team sitting fifth or sixth in October could be the best team in the conference by February.
Arizona starts first.
There is an enormous amount of basketball between first place now and first place in March.
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