On Wednesday night North Carolina silenced all doubts with a statement victory over San Diego State. The victory punched the Tar Heels’ official ticket to the “Big Dance.” However, there still remain looming questions about the legitimacy of March Madness’ biggest mark of controversy.
Coming into Dayton as a probable 11 seed, Carolina sought a final opportunity to reach the tournament. After dismantling the Aztecs early, UNC took to a crushing 95-68 victory in the First Four. Carolina is now set to face No. 6 Ole Miss in the Round of 64.
So, what should we expect?
There’s no better way to underscore UNC’s season as a roller coaster ride. The Tar Heels have proven to coexist dominance with vulnerability. That goes a long way in March. Each year, college basketball fans are surprised with some sweet Cinderella stories and some bitter fraudulent stories. There seems to be no fine line with Carolina as their path here has been rather unforeseen and desperate.
UNC finished the regular season with a 23-13 record (13-7 ACC) which was good for sixth in the conference. To many, that underperformance and subpar record cost a postseason appearance.
Down the stretch, North Carolina got hot, fending off wins over lower ACC opponents and riding a six-game win streak, heading into their final game against Duke. On their home floor, UNC surrendered a brutal 82-69 defeat to the Blue Devils. Following two ACC tournament wins over Notre Dame and Wake Forest, UNC suffered another disheartening loss to Duke.
The overwhelming storyline is North Carolina’s “big-win” ability. In fact, it’s nearly nonexistent. The Tar Heels went 1-12 across quad 1 games in 2025. However, UNC impressively took care of business in quads 2, 3, and 4, with an overall 22-1 record.
The inconsistency has continued to plague Hubert Davis’ team, but the winning outlook is still very possible.
The blueprint is pretty clear, North Carolina needs a hot start and momentum to rally behind. Against San Diego State, the Tar Heels went on multiple big runs and even led by 24 points at the half. Seemingly, North Carolina cut off all early hopes the Aztecs had.
Offensively, it’s RJ Davis. Let’s face it, the fifth-year senior has run the show in Chapel Hill. That wave of momentum is largely built behind RJ Davis as the lead catalyst to a high-volume shooting team. Davis scored 26 points on Wednesday night and shot a perfect 6-6 from three. As a team, North Carolina shot the three at a 58% (14-24) clip. Those numbers of efficiency will be hard for any team to stop.
Additionally, Elliot Cadeau played a crucial role in the victory as he scored 9 points, with a team-high 12 assists. Cadeau has been rather inconsistent for UNC, although when he utilizes his speed, he is also hard to stop. Cadeau is a very streaky shooter who has struggled mightily from beyond. He is prone to take defenders one-on-one and getting into the paint, where he causes havoc and does most of his work. Of course, Carolina will also rely greatly on Jae’Lyn Withers and Seth Trimble who will do much of the dirty work and little things.
The full package; I believe North Carolina has. The consistency is inept. That is where the Tar Heels will have to find a rhythm to do some damage beyond the first round.
Carolina has all the tools to be great and defensively can take over games as well. When we look ahead to the first round matchup it seriously is hard to predict the outcome. UNC has been through many trials and tribulations and has overcome many woes to reach this point. Likewise, Ole Miss is battle-tested having seen the gauntlet that is the SEC.
Assuming Carolina can possibly pull off the first-round upset, the team would have to then face either No. 14 Lipscomb or No. 3 Iowa State.
There’s no telling where a team like North Carolina can end up in March Madness. The twofold difference between a Cinderella and a fraud is quite prevalent. The question now stands, where will UNC’s fate be decided?