The SEC has garnered plenty of attention as the best conference in college basketball, and justifiably so, but the Big 12’s expansion has upped the ante on a league that has consistently been loaded with talent. Houston arrived from the American last season, and Arizona joined from the Pac-12 this year. So, while bloated power conferences have their drawbacks, this top-15 matchup is not one of them.
Kelvin Sampson snatched the regular season conference title away from Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks and Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears in his first season in Big 12, and now Tommy Lloyd with his 11-2 Arizona Wildcats, is looking to do the same in 2024-25.
Houston has been the class of the conference this year, with its lone blemish a one-point overtime loss to Texas Tech, but until a Tuesday night loss to suddenly red-hot Kansas State, Arizona had kept pace. Now, the top spot is on the line in Tucson, and here’s how you can catch the action on ESPN.
How to watch No. 6 Houston vs. No. 13 Arizona
- Date: Saturday, February 15
- Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: McKale Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Houston record: 20-4 (12-1)
- Arizona record: 17-7 (11-2)
Houston vs. Arizona odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Houston -114
- Arizona -105
Spread
- Houston -1.5 (-105)
- Arizona +1.5 (-115)
Total
- 136.5 (over -105/under -115)
Houston injury report
- Ramon Walker Jr., G: OUT (hand)
Arizona injury report
- Trey Townsend, F: Questionable (concussion)
- Motiejus Krivas, C: OUT (lower leg)
Arizona and Houston series history
- Arizona all-time record vs. Houston: 6-6
Houston vs. Arizona prediction
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are a defensive-minded team at heart and with one of the slowest paces in the country (360th Kenpom adjusted tempo), will attempt to drag this game into the mud. Arizona on the other hand loves to play fast (38th in tempo) and is going to do everything it can to speed up the Cougs. The stylist mismatch will be the most interesting thing about this game, and even on the road, it favors Houston.
Though they didn’t win these matchups, Houston has played fast this season against elite offensive teams, in a close high-scoring loss to Alabama and another against Auburn. Both of those teams, which prepare to square off in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, are far superior to Arizona and provide some proof that Kelvin Sampson can play Tommy Lloyd’s game.
While only 9.2% of Houston’s attempts come in transition, the Cougars are shooting 68.4% on transition field goal attempts (99th percentile per CBBanalytics). LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will try to slow this game down and play in the half-court, but if they need to run, they can still be hyper-efficient. However, on the other side, Arizona needs to play fast to succeed because when the game grinds to a half, so does their offensive effectiveness.
Arizona takes nearly 15% of its shots in transition and just 78% in the half-court (18th percentile perr CBBanalytics). On half-court attempts, the Wildcats are shooting 43.2%, which is right in line with Houston’s 42.7% for the season, but over the last five games that number has dropped to 37.6%, down from a 77th percentile output to 11th percentile.
The Wildcats are 4-1 over that five-game stretch with wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech, but Houston’s methodical pace will put more pressure on Lloyd’s group to execute in the half-court than any of those previous five opponents, and the Cougars will get a win in Tucson.