Indiana head coach Mike Woodson plans to step down at the end of the season, and he doesn’t want that to be on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers have played themselves onto the bubble with a 5-2 finish to the regular season and earned a bye through the first round of the conference tourney in Indianapolis, but they likely need a second-round win over the Oregon Ducks to solidify their spot in March Madness.
Despite a five-game losing streak in Big Ten play, Dana Altman’s Ducks acquitted themselves well in their first year in the league. Oregon closed on a seven-game win streak to get to 12-8 in conference play, and that included a March 4 victory over the Hoosiers. The Ducks are slight favorites in the rematch and are a dark horse to win the whole thing in Indy.
How to watch Indiana vs. Oregon in the Big Ten Tournament
- Date: Thursday, March 13
- Time: Noon ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- How to Watch (TV): Big Ten Network
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Indiana record: 19-12 (10-10)
- Oregon record: 23-8 (12-8)
Indiana vs. Oregon odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Indiana +114
- Oregon -137
Spread
- Indiana +2.5 (-118)
- Oregon -2.5 (-104)
Total
- 143.5 (over -105/under -115)
Indiana injury report
- Dallas James, C: Questionable (undisclosed)
- Jakai Newton, G: Questionable (undisclosed)
- Gabe Cupps, G: OUT (lower body)
Oregon injury report
- Dezdrick Lindsay, F: OUT (shoulder)
Oregon and Indiana series history
- Oregon all-time record vs. Indiana: 1-3
Indiana vs. Oregon prediction
Mike Woodson was not happy after his team’s 73-64 loss in Eugene. Indiana attempted four more field goals while shooting a better percentage than the Ducks and hit three more threes than Oregon, yet lost by nine because of a staggering free throw discrepancy. Oregon went 19/21 from the line while Indiana went just 3/7, and that led to a postgame tirade from the veteran head coach.
For the season, Indiana has a slightly higher free throw attempt rate, only fouls slightly more than Oregon. You have to imagine, whether the officials are aware of the last game or not, that there won’t be a lopsided differential in this one. That could lead to a better result for the Hoosiers.
Oregon had two players on the Big Ten All-Defense team, center Nate Bittle and TJ Bamba, yet as a group the Ducks posted just a 74th percentile defensive rating. Bittle’s presence in the paint has been particularly impactful lately with opponents shooting just 53.3% at the rim across the last five games (99th percentile according to CBBanalytics.com). Meanwhile, Indiana has attacked the rim with renewed fervor over the same stretch, attempting nearly 40% of its field goals at the rim. If Bittle can protect the rim without fouling, Oregon should win this matchup, but if he gets into foul trouble, the Hoosiers could pull the slight upset.
It was either deliberately poor officiating or a statistical anomaly that gave Oregon its win over IU a few weeks ago. So, I’ll take the Hoosiers to get to the line more often in this one and to pull a slight upset.
72. 482. IU. 72. 515. Prediction
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