We are a week away from Selection Sunday, and half of the automatic bids have already been established. The final step before we all tune in for the full bracket reveal is to find out who will earn the remaining automatic bids into the NCAA Tournament. Championship Week, part 2, is officially upon us.
Most of the single-bid leagues were last week, and this week, there are going to be a lot of bubble teams that are edgy and stressed out. Watch out for those stolen bids; there are a few conferences where those teams are more likely than ever to win their league tournaments. We say this every year that the bubble is weak, but this year is one of the worst bubbles the sport has seen in a long time. At-Large bids are ready to be secured if you can win enough games.
Who are the teams that everyone should watch out for, or who are those teams that are going to win their leagues and receive the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament? Never fear, I have a breakdown for you. Here is who will win the automatic bids for the remaining 16 tournaments, along with a sleeper pick. The sleepers are anyone outside of the top 3 seeds that could win the tournament.
Atlantic 10
March 11th-March 15th
PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA
Top Seed: Saint Louis Billikens
Winner: Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Louis is one of those teams no one wants to face come NCAA Tournament time. They are deep, play extremely fast, are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and have flat-out dominated most of the competition in the Atlantic 10. The Billikens have lost a few games leading up to the tournament, but it gave them a chance to reset and get ready for a huge run in the NCAA Tournament and probably beyond. The Billikens are a matchup nightmare for just about everyone and are an elite shooting and rebounding team. If they play up to their potential, they will win the league tournament going away.
Sleeper: George Mason Patriots
It was a miserable February for George Mason, which lost 5 of 7 games. That month took the Patriots out of potential at-large contention for the NCAA Tournament, even if the chances were slim; they are now at zero. The Patriots are a perfect candidate for a bid steal because they do have a ton of talent. It’s a new season, and while George Mason is playing their worst right now, it only takes one game to get their confidence back and start rolling again. Trust coach Tony Skinn to have his guys ready to play and for Kory Mincy and Jahari Long to get George Mason back to the NCAA Tournament.
ACC
March 10th- March 14th
Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC
Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils
Winner: Duke Blue Devils
As I have mentioned before, I don’t like picking the top teams to win conference tournaments. Especially given the usual chaos in power conference tournaments, this Duke team is much better than last year’s, which was a legitimate National Title contender. Cameron Boozer is the best player in the country and has dominated in ACC play. They have guys that score from all over the floor, have depth, and have one of the best defenses in the sport. Don’t overthink this. They are a dominant force within the ACC, and it would be a surprise if they lost a game and didn’t win the league, but it isn’t likely to happen because Duke is a wagon.
Sleeper: Stanford Cardinal
Are you all ready for another bid stealer? Stanford would do just that if they were able to win the ACC Conference Tournament. If Stanford won this tournament, they would need Duke and Virginia out of the way, though anything can happen. So why the Cardinal, who finished near the bottom of the league? One reason Ebuka Okorie, the sensational freshman, is overshadowed by Boozer at Duke is that Okorie is the other freshman in this league who can put a team on his back and win some games. If Duke and Virginia happen to get upset, I will always go with the best player.
American Athletic
March 11th-March 15th
Legacy Arena at the BJCC in Birmingham, AL
Top Seed: South Florida Bulls
Winner: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
It is conference tournament time, and that means the teams with the most talent will likely win out. The team in America with the most talent is the Golden Hurricane. Watching Tulsa as many times as I have, I've found they are extremely hard to beat when they are at their best. Golden Hurricane basketball in 2025-2026 can be summed up as an offensive juggernaut that stretches the floor with its elite three-point shooting. They are also one of the most efficient offenses in the American, and if teams are not careful, they will get blown out. The elite offense, coupled with one of the best defenses in the league, makes Tulsa the favorite, at least to me.
Sleeper: Florida Atlantic Owls
The American is another conference that is strong at the top, and it would be hard to see a sleeper come out of the league and win the entire conference. Since we are on the topic of scoring, let's stick with that when talking about Florida Atlantic. Head coach John Jakus wants the Owls to push the pace the entire game and score as much as possible. That is a hard style to prepare for on short notice, even in a conference tournament. Florida Atlantic is efficient on the offensive end, as coach Jakus wants, but the problem is on the defensive end. The lack of resistance by the Owls on that end is usually a hindrance to winning games.
Big 12
March 10th-March 14th
T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO
Top Seed: Arizona Wildcats
Winner: Iowa State Cyclones
If you know what is actually going to happen in the Big 12, then you are lying to yourself. This is going to be one of the best tournaments of championship week because the top teams are so close. Iowa State didn’t play well down the stretch of the regular season, but the Cyclones are a team that has everything it takes to make a deep run into March. They are an elite three-point shooting team, have a senior point guard who rarely makes mistakes, have one of the best big men in the country, and have an elite defense. Iowa State has shown it can beat anyone, as evidenced by its wins over Houston and Purdue. The Cyclones are going to get it together just in time for a big run in the Big 12.
Sleeper: Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats have underachieved under current head coach Wes Miller, and it is no secret that his seat is hot. It also isn’t a surprise that Cincinnati has been playing a lot better as the season winds down, most notably after rumors that coach Miller might no longer be the coach. The Bearcats have a win at Phog Allen this year, but also have a lot of bad losses. The bad losses are going to require Cincinnati to make a deep run in the conference tournament to give itself a chance. If Jizzle James and company can win the tournament, it will represent a stolen bid into the NCAA Tournament.
Big East
March 11th-March 14th
Madison Square Garden in New York, NY
Top Seed: St. John’s Red Storm
Winner: UConn Huskies
UConn still has an outside chance at receiving a one seed in the NCAA Tournament, and all you ever hear is that this version of the Huskies isn’t good enough and is one of the most vulnerable potential one seeds in the NCAA Tournament. That may be true, but one thing is for sure: the Huskies keep winning and keep dominating the Big East. UConn is never flashy; they win by doing things much better than their opponent. Their offense is extremely efficient, especially from deep, like always. The defense and rebounding are elite, like always. They move the ball and are a Final Four contender. Don’t overthink this one.
Sleeper: Creighton Bluejays
The Big East is historically bad this year, likely to get only three teams in the NCAA Tournament, and Creighton is not one of them for the first time in a long time. It will be autobid-or-bust for the Bluejays this season. In what has been a horrible season for the Bluejays, mired by a lot of NIL-bought players that didn’t pan out, they still have shown some signs of life this year. Austin Swartz and Nik Graves have been decent over the last month, and Creighton did blow out UConn in Storrs. As long as the Bluejays can hit threes, keep the chemistry okay for another week, and not have to play DePaul, they have a chance to win the Big East Tournament.
Big Ten
March 10th-15th
United Center in Chicago, IL
Top Seed: Michigan Wolverines
Winner: Michigan State Spartans
It is hard to pick against the Wolverines, who have absolutely dominated this league, unlike anything any of us has seen in quite some time. Still, Michigan State is currently playing the best basketball in the league. Jeremy Fears is one of the best players in the country, and I promise you he will infuriate you if you are not a Michigan State fan. Fears, when paired with the frontcourt of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, make a formidable trio that has all taken a huge step over the last month. The Spartans have also found a solution to what has been plaguing the offense all year: three-point shooting. Kur Teng has developed into one of the best shooters in the league over the last 10 games, and he doesn’t look to be stopping soon. Give me Michigan State in round 3 against Michigan.
Sleeper: Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern has not had a good season at all. They do have a roster that can cause some problems for some teams and can make a little run depending on the matchups. Note that the entire Big Ten now makes the league tournament, so if you are playing on the first day, like the Wildcats are, then you will need to win 6 games in 6 days, which is impossible. However, Northwestern could absolutely make a run and put a scare into some of the single-digit seeds. Nick Martinelli is the leading scorer in the Big Ten and makes a lot of baskets that others can’t, but the lack of shooting and rebounding will ultimately be the downfall for Northwestern.
Big West
March 11th-March 14th
Lees Family Forum in Henderson, NV
Top Seed: UC Irvine Anteaters
Winner: Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
As a fan of a team that is likely going to be on a seed line that could play Hawaii, they scare me. They don’t scare me as much from the offensive side of the ball, and to be quite honest, the offense is clunky and not very efficient. The Rainbow Warriors turn the ball over a lot, which could ultimately lead to their demise in the conference tournament. Here is why none of that will matter. The defense Hawaii plays is extremely unique. They never switch anything and play an elite defense that protects the three-point line and forces teams to go one-on-one against them. They allow fewer than 10 assists per game. It has led to Hawaii being one of the top teams in the Big West, and they are extremely hard to prepare for, even for conference teams that have already seen them. I like Hawaii because of their ability on the defensive end.
Sleeper: Santa Barbara Gauchos
The Big West has been known for some chaos, so a sleeper winning this tournament is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Santa Barbara is one of those sneaky teams that didn’t have the regular season they were hoping for, but can get hot and go on a long run. They are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country, shooting at 38%, right at the league-wide rate of 39%. The Gauchos have one of the best guards in the mid-major ranks in Aidan Mahaney. Mahaney can win games for Santa Barbara on his own. Players like that are extremely valuable in a single-elimination tournament format.
Conference USA
March 10th-March 14th
VBC Probst Arena in Huntsville, AL
Top Seed: Liberty Flames
Winner: Liberty Flames
Look at that, another year of pure and utter domination from Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McKay has turned the Flames into one of the best mid-major teams in the country by guiding his teams to some of the best offenses in the country. Liberty is a heavy three-point offense, and the Flames shoot over 40% from deep as a team. They also shoot over 50% from the floor. Pair the excellent offense with an elite defense that thrives on forcing turnovers and running teams off the three-point line, and you have a dominant team that should make the NCAA Tournament. Now, will Liberty show better than last year when they got blown out by Oregon? Time will tell.
Sleeper: FIU Panthers
Florida International has scoring everywhere and a ton of talent. If it all clicks, they can be very hard to beat. Then why would they not be the favorite to win the tournament? As we all know, basketball is so much more than offense, and the defense for the Panthers leaves a lot to be desired. FIU can’t look like cones on defense if they want to have a legitimate shot at making a run in the conference tournament. The Panthers are the ultimate sleeper because they have an extremely athletic roster that can do a lot of things that other teams can’t. Athleticism and shot-making matter, and since the Panthers are adept at playing shootouts, watch out if the game turns into a track meet.
Ivy League
March 14th-March 15th
Newman Arena in Ithaca, NY
Top Seed: Yale Bulldogs
Winner: Yale Bulldogs
At this point, it is beneficial to ensure Yale remains the Ivy League's representative until someone beats it. Princeton is the last one to beat Yale, and then Princeton made a run to the second weekend. The Bulldogs have a team capable of pulling off an upset or two in the tournament.
Yale poses matchup problems for many of the teams they will play. Head coach James Jones coaches to the strengths of his roster better than any other coach in the low-major ranks, and it has paid off with a dynasty in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs take smart shots, resulting in ultra-efficient offense and fantastic three-point shooting. Yale is good enough on defense to keep games close if they are making shots. They won’t get challenged in the Ivy Tournament.
Sleeper: Cornell Big Red
The Ivy League tournament is a lot of fun because it takes place over a weekend, and it is only four teams. With only 4 teams, the chances of a team rising and getting hot over a week are low. This year, though, the Cornell Big Red earned the distinction of being the fourth seed in the Ivy Madness event. Cornell plays as fast as possible, and their games frequently turn into a shootout. The offense is elite, but the defense is terrible, and it isn't good enough to reasonably win the league.
MAC
March 12-March 14th
Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH
Top Seed: Miami Ohio Redhawks
Winner: Akron Zips
GASP!! I know this one probably goes against the norm of picking Miami Ohio, who is currently undefeated, but don’t forget that Akron only lost one conference game, to the Redhawks, and it was by 3 points. The Zips are loaded with talent and sport one of the country's most efficient offenses.
Akron shoots over 50% from the floor and over 60% from inside the three-point arc, plays at a lightning pace, and shoots a ton of three-pointers,s which they make at 38%. Akron has elite ball movement, can rebound, and get a ton of steals on defense to get out in transition. The constant pressure Akron puts on teams makes them dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. The MAC would be a bid steal.
Sleeper: Bowling Green State Falcons
The top of the MAC has two of the best mid-major teams in the sport this year, and if one of the two at the top of the league doesn’t win the automatic bid into the tournament, it would be a huge upset. Bowling Green is the team you look to because they have already beaten a power conference school this year, even though that team was Kansas State. The Falcons play at a pace and run an offense efficient enough to stay with the big two in a game, at least giving themselves a chance to win.
MEAC
March 11th-March 14th
Norfolk Scope Arena in Norfolk, VA
Top Seed: Howard Bison
Winner: Howard Bison
Even though the MEAC champion is going to be one of the lucky ones who get to kick off the tournament on Tuesday night in the First Four games, don’t take anything away from the accomplishments of the Bison. Howard has been the MEAC's best program under head coach Kenneth Blakeney. How have the Bison resurrected their program?
The Bison always have two great guards who can score: one from the outside and the other inside, and as a distributor. Howard has that again this year with Bryce Harris and Cam Gillus. Those two are the two best players in the MEAC. The Bison do the little things and shouldn’t lose to anyone in the MEAC, and should see themselves back in the NCAA Tournament.
Sleeper: Norfolk State Spartans
Does anyone want to bet against Robert Jones and the Spartans? The Spartans are the perennial power in the MEAC and did not have the season they are used to, but now get a chance to win the MEAC tournament and head back to the NCAA Tournament. Norfolk State is going to have the best player on the floor most nights, and when you pair that with the best coach in the event, with the team that has done nothing but win over the last 10 seasons. That gets you the ultimate sleeper in a league tournament.
Mountain West
March 11th- March 14th
Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV
Top Seed: Utah State Aggies
Winner: New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico was one of the best teams in the country last year, but then lost its coach and most of its roster to the transfer portal. So, with a new roster and a new coach, not many knew what to expect. Instead, what you got was a team that takes heavy threes, crashes the glass, and plays smothering defense and forces a lot of turnovers. That is the signature of Eric Olen's teams. New Mexico does have those games when the three-point shots don’t fall, and that makes them extremely vulnerable to games with large scoring variance, but when New Mexico is hitting shots, they are extremely hard to beat. Never count out a desperate team, and the Lobos have to show well or their season is over. They will just take care of that and win the whole thing.
Sleeper: Colorado State Rams
It is always the goal to be playing your best basketball in March, even if the tournament hopes are slim. The Rams have taken that and run with it as they head into the conference tournament on a huge winning streak. Colorado State is looking for back-to-back conference tournament wins and has made itself a team no one wants to see. The offensive efficiency is elite, the three-point shooting is elite, and the big man Kyle Jorgenson is elite. The Rams have confidence they can win the league, and there isn’t much that says they won’t at least make a deep run.
SEC
March 11th-March 15th
Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN
Top Seed: Florida Gators
Winner: Arkansas Razorbacks
Who is going to win the SEC tournament? Your guess is as good as mine. I chose Arkansas because they have the two best players in the SEC who can take over and dominate a game. Going along with the two star players who also happen to be freshmen and potential lottery picks, Razorbacks faithful can take solace in knowing they have one of the nation's premier offenses, averaging over 90 points per game. The 90 points per game is one thing, but when you realize how Arkansas gets to those 90 points, you see how scary the offense actually is. They shoot over 50% from the floor and almost 40% from deep, and have athletic players who can get to the rim. The defense isn’t as good as other John Calipari defenses, but the offense should carry them.
Sleeper: Vanderbilt Commodores
Is Vanderbilt truly a sleeper? No, not by the general definition of the term, given that the Commodores are going to make the NCAA Tournament and will likely make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Still, for this exercise, Vanderbilt would be a sleeper to win the SEC tournament. Vanderbilt has had a fantastic year, but two players will always be a factor in every Commodore's win. Tyler Tanner is a 30-point game waiting to happen, and Duke Miles has been around and is the calming force Vanderbilt needs. Miles can also get buckets. Vanderbilt needs to be taken seriously.
SWAC
March 9th-March 14th
Gateway Center Arena in Atlanta, GA
Top Seed: Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Winner: Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Bethune-Cookman earning the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament isn’t a surprise to anyone who follows the SWAC regularly. The Wildcats were a team that many people had pegged as one of the best SWAC teams ever, and had the chance to beat some power-conference teams. Bethune-Cookman almost beat Auburn on opening night, which was the high point of the season.
The Wildcats have a prolific offense, at least by SWAC teams' standards. They have the most talented roster in the SWAC and are coached by an NBA legend in Reggie Theus. It would be a huge surprise if the Wildcats didn’t win the league. The SWAC winner is always a First Four team, but that doesn’t take any luster off the accomplishment of winning the league.
Sleeper: Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions
It is some validation for the Pine Bluff program to know that they decided to keep head coach Solomon Bozeman after some bad seasons. The Golden Lions have made notable progress this season, and much of that can be credited to their two stars, Quion Williams and Jaquan Johnson. If those two stars are scoring, Pine Bluff will be a tough matchup for everyone in the league. The offense isnt the problem, but the Golden Lions will never reach their full potential if they cannot figure out their defense. The defense ranks among the worst in the country.
Southern Conference
March 6th-March 9th
Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, NC
Top Seed: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Winner: East Tennessee State
It had been a while since the Buccaneers had won the Southern Conference, and it had also been a while since the Southern Conference had had a ton of great teams. The league usually has a lot of great teams, and this year, East Tennessee State was the best team by two games. ETSU runs an efficient offense, and even though they don’t shoot a ton of threes, they do make the ones they take and shoot 57% from inside the arc. The defense is one of the better ones in the country. The Buccaneers make you work for everything you get, but will give up open threes and could be vulnerable against teams that shoot it well.
Sleeper: UNC Greensboro Spartans
It has not been a good season for UNC Greensboro. However, it wouldn’t be a Southern Conference tournament if the Spartans didn’t have a say. UNC Greensboro can’t defend anyone, and they currently have one of the worst defenses in the country. Never fear, though, because Greensboro and its three-point shooting have gotten it figured out a little bit in February and are poised to make a run in the tournament. They likely won’t win the league, but they'll keep a game uncomfortably close for a top seed.
WAC
March 11th-March 14th
Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV
Top Seed: Utah Valley Wolverines
Winner: Utah Valley Wolverines
It is now official that Utah Valley was granted an injunction to play in the conference tournament. That was an interesting statement, so let's discuss: the Wolverines are leaving the WAC at the end of the season, and the conference commissioner once banned the Wolverines from the postseason as some sort of punishment. Now the Wolverines are back in the postseason, and there is no way they are going to lose this tournament, and will head to the NCAA Tournament as the representative from the WAC.
Utah Valley is a very weird team to play. They are extremely efficient on offense, move the ball, and score over 80 a night. That isn’t what is weird about their offense; it is that they rarely take threes and are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country. Usually, teams that take a ton of two-point shots either make free throws or lose games. It helps that the defense is elite, but the free-throw shooting may be a hindrance in a tight game. Utah Valley will head to the tournament.
Sleeper: Texas Arlington Mavericks
It is hard to pick a sleeper when the league only has six teams and every team plays each other a total of 4 times throughout the season. Texas-Arlington is the most intriguing team because they play a style unlike any other in the WAC. The Mavericks play at a slow pace and in a low-possession style of basketball in a conference that loves to run and gun. Their style can give some teams problems, but too bad they have already played all of these teams 4 times.