Now that we have reached the month of March, conference tournaments have arrived. Over the next week, 31 different conferences will hold tournaments with each crowning a champion that will receive an automatic bid to March Madness. These tournaments are especially exciting at the mid-major level because, for most teams, it is win-or-go-home basketball, which often leads to the best moments.
However, there are a few mid-major teams that are just about locks or have a strong chance of receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. This means that if a different team from that conference wins the tournament, we could see a bid stealer and potentially multiple teams from that mid-major conference making the tournament. Here are the mid-major conferences that could possibly get multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament.
Atlantic 10
The A-10 is typically one of the stronger mid-majors and has been a multi-bid league in six of the last ten seasons. This year, Saint Louis has been the team to beat and is comfortably in the tournament. At the moment, VCU sits on the bubble and may not even need to win the conference tournament, but just making a run to the championship game could be enough to secure an at-large bid.
In recent years though, we have seen the A-10 produce surprise “bid stealers” in its conference tournament with Duquesne (2024) and Richmond (2022). With what you could call struggling for Saint Louis with two of its three losses this season coming in the past month, several scenarios could lead to a multi-bid A-10. VCU could play its way into the tournament with an at-large bid, or a team like Dayton or Saint Joseph’s, who have won a combined 11 straight games, could go on a run in the conference tournament and steal the automatic bid.
MAC
Now this is the scenario everyone is talking about: what happens if the undefeated Miami RedHawks fall in the conference tournament final? That would leave them with just one loss on the season, but with a resume that is extremely lacking. Miami has been pushed to the brink multiple times in MAC play this season, and getting through the first few rounds of the conference tournament will not be easy with the massive target on their back.
If the RedHawks reach the championship game, they would likely face Akron, who certainly is hungry for another shot at the RedHawks. Interestingly, the last time the MAC sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament was in 1999, when Miami earned an at-large bid after losing in the MAC Tournament championship game.
Missouri Valley Conference
This one may be more of a longshot, but if Miami (OH) has a shot at an at-large bid, then Belmont should at least get an argument. The Bruins have five losses on the season, four of which came in the extremely deep Missouri Valley Conference, with two of those coming in overtime. While it doesn’t help that they have zero games against a power conference opponent, Belmont has played six more Quad 2 games than Miami and has four more Quad 2 wins. And to borrow an argument similar to one made by Miami’s AD, Belmont defeated Toledo, a team from Miami’s conference, by 15 earlier this season.
With how chaotic the MVC has been this year and the number of teams that have a legitimate shot to win the conference tournament, it would not be surprising to see Belmont fall at Arch Madness. Given how weak the bubble has been this season, the Bruins at least deserve consideration for an at-large spot if that is the case.
Mountain West
The Mountain West getting multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament is usually a given, but this year only Utah State is comfortably in the field. While the Aggies are in, a multi-bid year will likely come down to the bubble, where both New Mexico and San Diego State currently find themselves.
Utah State has fallen off a bit recently, losing three of its last four games, which means the conference tournament could be wide open. That could allow one of the bubble teams to take control of its own fate by earning the conference’s automatic bid or look out for a team that is finishing the regular season strong, such as UNLV or Colorado State who has won eight straight to make a run and play bid-stealer.
WCC
The WCC will get at least two teams in the tournament with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. The odds of a bid stealer from the conference tournament feel slim, especially with the tournament format giving the Zags and Gaels a bye to the semifinals. However, Santa Clara has been hovering around the bubble and is a strong contender to get three teams from the WCC into March Madness for just the fourth time ever.