The Sun Belt is one of the few conference tournaments that guarantees its top seeds a spot in the semi-finals. That is to mitigate disaster, so to speak. There are so many one-bid leagues that are not sending their best to play in the NCAA Tournament because they are forcing them to play multiple games over multiple days for a bigger chance at an upset. The Sun Belt gets it right, and as a result, the top-seeded Troy Trojans won two games and qualified for the NCAA Tournament.
Troy is making their second straight appearance in the Big Dance. It will be the fourth overall appearance for the Trojans. Troy is still looking for that elusive first win in the event, which is never easy, but this season, head coach Scott Cross has built a team that is going to be a very dangerous 14 seed that has the chance to put a scare into some of the best power conference schools in the country. Why is Troy in a good position to win their first game?
Efficiency
Points per game matter, but they don’t tell the whole story. When evaluating a team's offense or its ability to put pressure on a defense, focus on the offensive efficiency. So what do I mean by efficiency? How many shots do they take, and what percentage of those shots do they make? That will tell you far more than the points-per-game stat.
Troy is in the top 100 teams in the country in scoring offense at 80 points per game, but it is how they get to those 80 points that is the scary part. Overall, the efficiency is in the bottom third of the country, but that is due to Troy taking most of their shots from deep, where they shoot 35%. That percentage is above average from deep.
The 35% number looks very different when you look at the efficiency numbers of the players taking the majority of the looks from deep; it is well above average. Cooper and Cobi Campbell take around 10 threes per night combined, and both shoot about 40% from deep. Thomas Dowd, who will talk about more later, shoots 34%. Those three account for half of the three-point attempts every night. Those three also play most of the minutes for coach Cross and do a lot of damage in those minutes. Efficient teams, especially from deep, have been the ones to watch out for in this tournament.
Rebounding and Ball Movement
Troy isn’t going to blow anyone away with their size or their athleticism, but to make up for that, the Trojans gang rebound. As a result of the hard crashes into the glass, Troy is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, especially on the offensive end. Few things can turn a game quicker than offensive rebounds, getting teams kicked out of threes, and forcing the opponents to play defense longer.
Troy does play relatively quickly, and opposing defenses have been good at getting the initial stop, but hauling in 13 offensive rebounds a game, it enables Troy to get easy putbacks and kick out threes, as mentioned. These can be absolutely backbreaking for a team trying to separate or make a comeback. Troy's ability to control the glass is going to scare a lot of teams.
Another underrated aspect of the game that Troy can control is ball movement. The Trojans come into the NCAA Tournament averaging 16 assists per game. That number is good for the top 70 in the country, and it’s just another way that Troy, with their lack of athleticism, can put a ton of pressure on the defense. The extra pass to get a player a wide-open three or layup, yet again, when the defense thinks they have them stopped, is another way to keep yourself in a game, but it's also heartbreaking for the opponent.
Victor Valdes
Let me introduce you all to the player who is likely to win the arbitrary, non-existent “most annoying player” award. I do not say that as a slight to Valdes. I am pretty sure that the big man thrives on it. Valdes plays with 100% energy the entire time, and just when you think you've got him stopped, he comes back and makes an energy play to make everyone mad again.
The good news for Troy is that Valdes is so much more than an energy guy. The junior forward from Mexico is one of Troy's best players. He currently leads the team in scoring and assists. He is the perfect point forward. The big man doesn’t shoot the ball overly well from deep, but he can make them if given enough opportunities. He is elite at getting other bigs in foul trouble and lives at the line. He doesn’t rebound all that well, but he does so many other things for Troy that no one should be too concerned about that.
Valdes would be what many would consider a glue guy and a very good one. Valdes is a coach's dream because he makes the right play 100% of the time, plays unbelievable defense, and makes clutch shots. The big man is one of this casual observer's favorite players of Troy's. Still, if my favorite team draws Troy in the first round, he will be the player I loathe, and it's only because his energy and raw ability to play basketball can change games, and all Valdes does is make plays that lead to wins.