For the second-straight season, Greg Gard’s Wisconsin Badgers came up short in the Big Ten Tournament Title Game, and that’s not the best recipe for a long run through March Madness. A year ago, the Badgers were knocked out in the first round as a No. 5 seed by James Madison, and this year they could be on upset alert as a No. 3 seed against 14th-seeded Montana.
Gard reconfigured his entire roster around a high-octane offensive attack and two athletic playmaking wings, John Tonje and John Blackwell. Gard advanced past the first weekend in his first season as the head man in Madison back in 2017 but hasn’t gone to the Sweet 16 since. Could this be the right recipe, or will a quick turnaround and an early start spell doom for Wisconsin?
Let’s get into this Round of 64 matchup in Denver on Thursday afternoon.
How to watch Montana vs. Wisconsin
- Date: Thursday, March 20
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
- How to Watch (TV): TNT
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Montana record: 25-9
- Wisconsin record: 26-9
Montana vs. Wisconsin odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Montana +1200
- Wisconsin -3030
Spread
- Montana +16.5 (-102)
- Wisconsin -16.5 (-120)
Total
- 151.5 (over -110/under -110)
Montana injury report
- N/A
Wisconsin injury report
- Camren Hunter, G: Questionable (undisclosed)
- Riccardo Greppi, F: Questionable (undisclosed)
Wisconsin and Montana series history
- Wisconsin all-time record vs. Montana: 3-0
- Last met in 2012 Round of 64: 73-49 Wisconsin W
Montana vs. Wisconsin prediction
The Badgers have become an efficient offensive team that lacks the stout defensive identity that defined the program under Bo Ryan and for much of Gard’s tenure. However, that shift has maximized the talent in Madison.
In Wisconsin’s 59-53 Big Ten Title game loss to Michigan on Sunday, the Badgers clearly had tired legs. Tonje went an abysmal 1-14 from the field, and couldn’t get anything going on that end. Now, Wisconsin has the play in the early window on Thursday with a quick turnaround at elevation in Denver, against a Montana team that’s used to the thin air. That’s one reason, but not the only one, that this could be a low-scoring affair.
Montana is third in the country in field goal percentage, hitting 50.2% of its attempts this season, and the Grizzlies play at about an average pace. However, Travis DeCuire’s team has a fifth-percentile offensive rebound rate and forces a turnover on just 13.7% of its opponent's possessions. Similarly, Wisconsin has a 35th-percentile offensive rebound rate and forces turnovers on 12.8% of its opponent's possessions. That means there won’t be many second-chance or transition opportunities, which are often the quickest way to put points on the board.
Expecting a low-scoring game could feel like a fool’s errand if Montana and Wisconsin are both knocking down shots, but opportunity is more predictive than efficiency. As far as a potential upset, Montana played two Power 4 teams this year and fell 79-48 to Oregon and 92-57 to Tennessee, so be careful taking the Grizzlies to advance in your bracket.