November and December are critical months for mid-majors to showcase their potential, though these teams don’t exactly get a ton of opportunities. The Mountain West took advantage when they got six teams into the 2024 NCAA Tournament but things are a bit different a few seasons later. This league doesn’t look like it’ll get such a splurge of representation, but after several weeks of play we’re going to look and see just how these teams sit right now.
12. Air Force (3-8)
It’s been another tough season for Air Force and it doesn’t really show signs of turning around in the weeks ahead. The Falcons’ only three wins came in a five-day span at home back in late November against a few weeks foes, though they’ve also lost 5 times on their home floor, with four double-digit defeats. They just aren’t getting the job done and won’t be a serious contender in the MWC anytime soon.
11. San Jose State (5-5)
All things considered San Jose State hasn’t been great but it certainly could’ve been a lot worse through the first month of the season. They played Michigan State closer than some expected (losing by just 19) and have a double-digit win over Loyola Chicago that unfortunately isn’t aging well. Tim Miles was hoping for a turnaround this season, though at least his Spartans are less than a week removed from one of their best performances with a 17-point win over San Diego.
10. Fresno State (6-4)
The Bulldogs began their season with seven straight games at home and despite a couple nice wins had a head scratching loss against USC Upstate nestled in there. Since then they’ve also dropped a tough home game to Cal State Bakersfield and just aren’t the consistent team that some were expecting. The outside shooting just isn’t there, evident most recently in a loss at Arkansas, and it’s very unlikely that Fresno State will work their way up into the top or middle tier in this conference.
9. UNLV (4-5)
The record may sicken you, but UNLV has actually played a very strong nonconference schedule to this point. Now clearly that doesn’t excuse a horrible loss at home to UT Martin to open the season, but since then the Runnin’ Rebels have upset wins at Memphis and Stanford that’ll look great on the resume later in the year. They had a tough time with three losses at the Players Era Festival, but UNLV is certainly battle-tested and in much better shape than some of these other MWC teams with alarming records.
8. Wyoming (8-2)
While the schedule hasn’t exactly screamed opportunity, Wyoming has taken care of their business and quietly set themselves up for the weeks ahead. The Cowboys have won all of their home games, although the most impressive of those is either Austin Peay or Norfolk State at this point. Just over a week ago these Cowboys had a great showing in a 4-point loss at Texas Tech and showcased just what they could be capable of if they put it all together.
7. Grand Canyon (5-4)
There have certainly been some disappointments in Grand Canyon’s first season in the MWC but let’s not pretend that these Antelopes are sitting around at home crying about it. A tough home loss to Youngstown State in the season’s opening week stung, but the other losses are all forgivable, including recent defeats at the hands of Iowa and Oklahoma State. The Antelopes have a solid 10-point win over Utah and despite some serious shooting issues do have the potential to make a difference in their MWC debut.
6. Boise State (6-3)
On opening night Boise State shocked the nation by losing at home to Hawaii Pacific and they’ve been using these last few weeks to claw back from that mistake. They lost a pair of games in the Maui Invitational to solid USC and NC State squads but have won all their other games, knocking off Wichita State and Butler most notably. That opening night anchor almost kills their at-large chances but don’t discount a Broncos team that’s lived near the top of the MWC standings in recent years.
5. Nevada (7-3)
Sitting near the middle of the pack, Nevada has had some good moments and some troubling ones in the opening weeks of this season. It was a tough showing in double-digit losses to Santa Clara and Washington back in November, though the Wolf Pack do have a 16-point win over San Francisco from their holiday tournament that should age nicely. This team has largely taken care of their business aside from an upset loss against UC Davis, though we’ll have to see how consistent this offense can be.
4. New Mexico (7-2)
The Lobos are very different from the team that made the second round of last season’s NCAA Tournament, but this New Mexico group still has potential. They’ve got a hard-earned win over an SEC foe in Mississippi State from their holiday tournament and neither of those two losses are bad, even if the faithful would’ve rather beaten New Mexico State a few weeks ago. Last weekend’s blowout win over Santa Clara is further evidence that this team could find their way back into the Big Dance with a strong push.
3. San Diego State (4-3)
Another MWC team with a very challenging nonconference slate, San Diego State entered the season as conference favorites but hasn’t really been showing that to this point. That double overtime home loss to Troy remains a head scratcher, which when paired with that 40-point loss to Michigan doesn’t look great. The Aztecs lost a pair of tough games at the Players Era Festival but did at least trounce Oregon and hope to use league play to get their season fully back on track.
2. Colorado State (8-2)
A pair of two-point losses remains the only blemishes in the first season for Ali Farokhmanesh. He had been part of this staff and the program’s success in recent years and this team has largely succeeded already, with wins away from home over Loyola Chicago, Wichita State, and South Florida in November. Last weekend’s win over rival Colorado handed the Buffaloes their first loss and reinforced that this should be the best team in the state again this season.
1. Utah State (8-1)
Despite coaching and player changes over the years, Utah State has made a real knack for surprising people in the MWC. The Aggies got a great win over VCU in the opening week and have added more solid performances, with their only loss coming last week at South Florida thanks to a tough offensive showing. Whether or not you can call the Aggies the favorite in this league, they’re playing the best ball right now, especially coming off that 26-point blowout at Charlotte this past Sunday.