Michigan State was rolling through the Big Ten until Tom Izzo’s team remembered that Big Ten country extends all the way out to Los Angeles. On their West Coast trip, Izzo’s Spartans went 0-2 with back-to-back losses to USC on Saturday and UCLA on Tuesday night, falling from a perfect 9-0 to 9-2 in conference play, and second place behind Purdue.
Still, for as tough as that road trip was on Michigan State, Dana Altman’s Oregon Ducks have fallen on much tougher times, and are digging a hole that it will be significantly more difficult to climb out of. The Ducks are now 5-7 in Big Ten play after four straight losses, the most recent of which came on Wednesday night in Ann Arbor Michigan. Oregon has also lost five of its last six and facing the No. 9 team in the country in East Lansing on Saturday, could continue its free-fall.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi still has the Ducks in the tournament as a No. 7 seed, but if Altman can’t turn things around fast, Oregon miss the big dance for the third time in four years. Altman has been in Eugene since 2010 and is one of the better coaches in the country, but if a school takes its basketball seriously, that’s a fireable offense.
The Ducks need a win, but it won’t be easy for Oregon to turn things around against one of the best teams in the Big Ten.
How to watch Oregon vs. Michigan State
- Date: Saturday, February 8
- Time: Noon p.m. ET
- Venue: Jack Breslin Student Events Center
- How to Watch (TV): FOX
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Oregon record: 16-7 (5-7)
- Michigan State record: 18-4 (9-2)
Oregon vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Oregon +245
- Michigan State -310
Spread
- Oregon +6.5 (-106)
- Michigan State -6.5 (-114)
Total
- 147.5 (over -110/under -110)
Oregon injury report
- N/A
Michigan State injury report
- Xavier Booker, F: Questionable (illness)
- Nick Sanders, G: Questionable (foot)
Michigan State and Oregon series history
- Michigan State all-time record vs. Oregon: 2-2
Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction
While Oregon has struggled to make shots over this putrid recent stretch of play, its struggles run much deeper than a shooting slump. The Ducks’ defensive rating has jumped from 104.6 for the season to 115.4 over the last five games and opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% which would fall in the fourth percentile.
Oregon isn’t suddenly failing to close out possessions with rebounds or giving the ball away on the offensive end, but when the Ducks do give up an offensive board or commit a turnover, their opponents are taking advantage. Over the last five games, Oregon is allowing nearly 15 points off turnovers a game and almost 10 second chance points. Michigan State is the exact type of team that will punish you for those mistakes, and for Oregon’s weakness on the defensive interior.
Michigan State averages 38.5 points in the paint per game and is shooting 55.5% from two-point range (45th in the country). While the Spartans don’t have one dominant scorer, they attack relentlessly in transition, and with a talented group of guards, Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson, and Jeremy Fears Jr. 7-footer Nate Bittle is blocking nearly two shots a game, but the Ducks rank outside the top 10 in the conference in opponent paint scoring.
Michigan State is already a bad matchup for the Ducks, and Oregon is simply working through too many problems right now to pull off a road upset of a Top 10 team.