There’s a very exclusive group of teams that I view as legitimate national champion contenders, and for me, No. 8 Creighton is on that list. Greg McDermott has built one of the best starting fives in the country and while the Bluejays don’t have much off the bench, the core four of Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander, and Steven Ashworth can hang without any team in college basketball.
One of Creighton’s primary issues is also one of their biggest strengths and the reason that they waxed, now No. 2, UConn 85-66 in Omaha on February 20, three-point shooting. The Bluejays are sixth in three-point attempts at 29.5, they shoot 36.5%, and 39.9% of their points come from behind the arc (10th in the country).
Over their final three games of the season, Creighton has scored 48.1% of their points from long-range. There are good shooting teams and bad shooting teams, but three-point variance is still an element of randomness that can lead to incongruent outcomes, like a 19-point win over UConn while shooting 14/28 from deep and a 62-48 loss to the same team a month earlier in the season with a 6/26 day from three.
As much as I like this team, if they go cold from deep, then it's open season for the underdogs.