In two weeks, there will be NCAA tournament games, and we will be one step closer in determining who the National Champion is going to be. As teams are putting the finishing touches on their at-large resumes, the rest of the teams are hoping they can get hot for a week and qualify for the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. It is championship week part 2. This is the week that all of the teams in the last 4 in line really dread! Bids are stolen, and hearts are broken this week.
There were five stolen bids during championship week last year, and there are going to be some this year from the Power Five conferences. Last week, I gave you the teams that would likely win the automatic bids from the first week of championship week. Week 2 features all the power conferences and most of the multi-bid conferences. Those are the conferences you must watch out for with the bid steals.
The remaining 16 automatic bids will be handed out. If you are a fan of a bubble team, watch the Big West, ACC, American, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and Mountain West. Those are the conferences with the most likely bids stolen or the conferences that will suffer the wrath of the stolen bids. This exercise will provide you with the team that should win the tournament as well as a sleeper. The sleeper is a team outside of the top 4 on the seed lines that has the best chance to win the league.
ACC
- Dates: March 11th-15th
- Venue: Spectrum Center
- Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils
Winner: Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals are back at the top of the ACC, where they belong, and it is all thanks to new head coach Pat Kelsey and star guard Chucky Hepburn. Louisville has one of the 2nd best offense in the league and 80 points per game. They get there by taking the most threes and making them at 38% overall. Louisville rebounds the ball well and is elite at getting to the foul line. The Cardinals did lose to Duke at the beginning of ACC play but are a much different team than they were before Christmas. The Cardinals are a lock to make the NCAA tournament, but coach Kelsey would love nothing more than to beat Duke in the title game in his first season at the helm.
Sleeper: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest is a frustrating team because they have a lot of talent, but they don’t win the games they should win, and it ends up in a missed opportunity to make the NCAA tournament. They are still the team that is a massive sleeper in the ACC because of the level of talent they have every night, and the Demon Deacons have two of the best players in the league. So, what is holding Wake Forest back? They are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, they are also a terrible rebounding team. Wake Forest must get fouled to stand a shot to win most nights. Wake Forest is good enough to win this tournament, but they will need to make shots to do that.
American
- Dates: March 12th-16th
- Venue: Dickies Arena
- Top Seed: Memphis Tigers
Winner: Memphis Tigers
This is one that bubble teams are going to watch intently; anyone other than Memphis winning this tournament would result in a stolen bid. The Tigers are already a lock to make the NCAA tournament field. This is the best Memphis team that head coach Penny Hardaway has had in his 8 seasons in Memphis. The Tigers have one of the best guards in the country in PJ Haggerty. He is averaging over 20 points per game on the season, and when you him with guards Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers you get a trio of guys who can all score and shoot the ball from outside. Memphis has never won the American regular season but have won the tournament once under coach Hardaway, they will make it twice this season.
Sleeper: Florida Atlantic Owls
It isn’t likely that anyone outside of the top four seeds can win this tournament. The gap is large, but if we are going to pick a sleeper it might as well be the team that has made the NCAA tournament the last two seasons. Florida Atlantic has a new look this year and is coached by first-year head coach John Jakus. The Owls like to get up and down the floor and are one of the highest-scoring teams in American. They take a lot of threes and will make a lot of threes, and if they can get the defense figured out, Florida Atlantic can make a run in the conference tournament.
Atlantic 10
- Dates: March 12th-16th
- Venue: Capital One Arena
- Top Seed: VCU Rams
Winner: George Mason Patriots
If the Patriots were to win the Atlantic 10, that would be a bid stolen because VCU is going to get an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. This league is probably going to result in a stolen bid anyways because the Atlantic 10 conference tournament is always crazy and we have learned in that league to expect the unexpected. The Patriots don’t do anything flashy, but they play smothering defense, and scoring on them has turned into a chore. They will allow nothing in the paint and contest every three. George Mason plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and forces you to adjust to them. They are hard to prepare for on short notice.
Sleeper: George Washington Revolutionaries
This tournament is chaos every year and it always leads to someone who has zero business winning the tournament making a run and winning the tournament. That team this year, at least for me, is George Washington. Why? The tournament is in DC like it always is, but that is the home base for the Revs. The Revolutionaries don’t shoot the ball well from deep, but they do have the best big man in the league in Rafael Castro. Castro will change games with his ability to score in the post and rebound. He can dominate and when George Washington is winning games, Castro has been a factor.
Big 12
- Dates: March 11th-15th
- Venue: T-Mobile Center
- Top Seed: Houston Cougars
Winner: Iowa State Cyclones
I am not ready to give up on the Cyclones as the best team in the Big 12 yet. Houston is very good, but they don’t need to win the conference title to secure a top seed in the tournament, the Cougars already did the heavy lifting. Iowa State is a team that can improve its seeding position if it were to win this tournament. The Cyclones were at one point considered to be one of the best teams in the country, and it's for a good reason. They have three exceptional guards who can all get to the rim; they have great shooters all over the floor, and they still play Iowa State defense. Iowa State is still one of the best teams in the country, and they play in one of the best conferences in the country.
Sleeper: Cincinnati Bearcats
If the Bearcats were to make the NCAA tournament, that means that the current bubble team would not make the NCAA tournament. Cincinnati was preseason-ranked and looked like a tournament team until January. As the calendar turned, they struggled to win games in the Big 12 but have gotten hot in February and have worked their way back into the NCAA tournament bubble but will need to make a deep run in the Big 12 tournament to get in. Cincinnati is a typical Wes Miller-coached team that uses forced turnovers to get out in transition for points. They must keep games low-scoring to have a chance.
Big Ten
- Dates: March 12th-16th
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Top Seed: Michigan State
Winner: Maryland Terrapins
Anyone who has been watching the Big Ten all season long knows how scary the Terrapins have been all season long, and how they are built for a tournament format like this. They don’t have tremendous depth but their starting five are arguably the best starting five in the game. They have two big men who dominate on the glass and in the paint. They can each shoot free throws and they both protect the rim. Then the guards. The guards shoot the ball well and can make shots from all over the floor. Maryland is a tough matchup for anyone because of how much they stretch you on defense. Maryland is good at putting your team into tight spots and making tough shots. They are going to be a very tough out in the postseason.
Sleeper: Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are currently on the right side of the bubble but would love to take the suspense out of it by winning the Big Ten and they have a roster that can do that. The Buckeyes are deadly from the three point line and two of the better players in the league. Bruce Thornton is one of the best point guards in the country. He can score from all levels and rarely turns the ball over. Devin Royal is a do-everything wing who can rebound, score, and get to the free-throw line. Ohio State surrounds them with shooters and experience. That experience and shooting has already beaten Maryland, Kentucky, Texas and Purdue and look to add a few more to the ledger.
Big East
- Dates: March 12th-15th
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- Top Seed: St. John’s Red Storm
Winner: St. John’s Red Storm
The Johnnies dominated the Big East regular season and won the league by multiple games. Head coach Rick Pitino has St. John’s in a prime position to make a huge postseason run, and they are legitimate title contenders. The Red Storm do by playing fast and efficient offense. They will get into the paint and everyone crashes the boards. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and average just under 15 offensive rebounds per night. St. John’s plays exceptional defense by contesting everything and forcing a ton of turnovers. The Red Storm have not lost in the state of New York this year, and that is where the tournament is being held. It will be the first tournament title since the 1999-2000 season.
Sleeper: Xavier Musketeers
Yet another team that the bubble teams are going to need to watch out for. Xavier is firmly on the bubble and is going to be motivated to win this tournament to take the suspense out of it. The Musketeers lead the Big East in scoring and in made free throws and attempts. They shoot almost 80% from the free throw line which is one of the best marks in the country. If that wasn’t enough, Xavier is one of the best three-point shooting in the country. Head coach Sean Miller has a team that can make a lot of noise in March.
Big West
- Dates: March 12th-15th
- Venue: Lee’s Family Forum
- Top Seed: UC San Diego Tritons
Winner: UC Irvine Anteaters
This is one that is likely going to be bad news for bubble teams. UC San Diego is already going to get an at large into the NCAA tournament, or at least they should. The Anteaters are the next best team and are a level above most of the competition. They are also a team that can win a game in the round of 64. UC Irvine has already lost to the Tritons once, and there will be a third game unless this tournament completely goes off the rails. The Anteaters have been the class of the Big West under head coach Russ Turner and that hasn’t changed. They should be and still are the favorite until someone takes them down.
Sleeper: Santa Barbara Gauchos
The league is on a crash course for UC Irvine and UC San Diego version 3, but if there was a team outside of the top 5 who can throw a wrench into those plans it is Santa Barbara. The Gauchos have a lot of history in the Big West and have been near the top of the league for a while under head coach Joe Pasternack. Santa Barbara shoots 40% from deep in league games; as we all know, if the shots start falling and the Gauchos get some confidence, crazy things can happen in the conference tournaments. The unfortunate part is that this league has two fantastic teams at the top this year.
Conference USA
- Dates: March 11th-15th
- Venue: VBC Probst Arena
- Top Seed: Liberty Flames
Winner: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
This tournament could be chaos there are a lot of teams who are close to each other, and I am just going by the team who is currently playing the best basketball. The Blue Raiders are old and have a lot of experience, which, as has been mentioned many times, is an advantage come tournament time. Middle Tennessee is led by big man Essam Moustafa who is an immovable force in the middle. He can rebound, block shots, and shoots over 60% from the floor. He will have to take over a few games for the Blue Raiders to return to the NCAA tournament.
Sleeper: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
This field is wide open, and anyone could win it and anyone outside of the top 4 teams could be a sleeper to win it, but Louisiana Tech is a team who is good enough to make the tournament and win a game in the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs underachieved a lot this season based on what their roster looked like on paper. As good of a big man as Middle Tennessee has, the Bulldog's big man, Daniel Batcho, is probably better. He is shooting almost 70% from the floor and leads the conference USA in blocks. I know that Louisiana Tech finished with 8 losses in the league, but they are much better than that.
Ivy League
- Dates: March 14th-16th
- Venue: Pizzitola Sports Center
- Top Seed: Yale Bulldogs
Winner: Yale Bulldogs
The Ivy League only has four teams in the annual Ivy Madness event, an event which has been dominated by Yale as of late. The Bulldogs have lost one game in the conference season, and it was to their bitter rival, Harvard. Outside of that game, Yale has dominated the league. The Bulldogs currently lead the league in points scored, rebounding, free throw attempts, free throws made, and field goal percentage. That is just on the offensive end. The Bulldogs have dominated the league on defense as well. They currently hold opponents under 40% shooting and don’t allow rebounds. This is the conference one conference this year where you can go ahead and pencil in the top seed.
Sleeper: Princeton Tigers
It is hard to choose a sleeper with a conference that only has 4 teams, but Princeton would be the team that would be the sleeper in my eyes. They are the only other team who can win this league outside of Yale. Princeton was the popular favorite in the preseason, but they have drastically underachieved for the talent on the roster. Princeton plays Cornell to open the tournament. If they can win that game, they will set up a showdown with the Bulldogs
MAAC
- Dates: March 11th-15th
- Venue: Boardwalk Hall
- Top Seed: Quinnipiac Bobcats
Winner: Merrimack Warriors
This is another tournament that is going to have a ton of chaos. The good thing for bubble teams is that the MAAC is a single-bid league, so it is a tournament championship or bust. Merrimack is one of three teams in the league, joining Quinnipiac and Sacred Heart, as teams who have never made the NCAA tournament. Merrimack does it with defense and slows the game way down. Point guard Budd Clark does everything for the Warriors. He anchors the defense and leads the offense. They will win because of their prowess on the defensive end, but they have not won a conference tournament because the offense is anemic at times. Scoring, at times, is a chore for Merrimack.
Sleeper: Manhattan Jaspers
It was only a matter of time before Manhattan was back to being a factor in the MAAC. The Jaspers hired John Gallagher two seasons ago after his very successful run at Hartford. He has infused the Manhattan program with a lot of young talent. The Jaspers have one of the best shooters in the country in Devin Dinkins and if he can get hot with his counterpart Will Sydnor, Manhattan can make a lot of noise. Individual talent can sometimes carry teams to victory.
MAC
- Dates: March 13th-15th
- Venue: Rocket Arena
- Top Seed: Akron Zips
Winner: Akron Zips
I know that I have said numerous times that top seeds don’t win their conference tournaments. Some do win them, and Akron is going to be one of those teams who are likely going to win their conference tournament. The Zips dominated the MAC, rolling to a three-game lead in the league and winning 24 overall games. Akron has been here before and has lost in the title game, but this year seems different because the MAC is not as good at the top this season and there is a big gap between Akron and everyone else. The Zips are going to live by the three and die by the three, but when you shoot almost 40% from deep for the year, you can do a lot of living.
Sleeper: Toledo Rockets
The bottom of the MAC is terrible and is not going to make a run in the tournament unless those teams show something that they have not over the previous 31 games. Toledo is the next-best team outside of the top 4. The Rockets have been there before and made a run to the tournament final two seasons ago before losing in the NIT that year. Toledo finished at the top of the league regular season last year. They know how to win in the tournament, but for that to happen, head coach Tod Kowalczyk is going to have to get his team to play some defense. It is a near impossible task to make a run in a conference tournament giving up 80 points per game.
MEAC
- Dates: March 12th-15th
- Venue: Scope Arena
- Top Seed: Norfolk State Spartans
Winner: Norfolk State Spartans
The Spartans have dominated the league over the last 5 years but only have two NCAA tournament appearances to show for it. That is the downfall of dominating in a one-bid league. One bad night and the season could be all over. Norfolk State has an experienced roster who have played a lot of college basketball. The Spartans shoot almost 50% from the floor and rarely shoot threes, but they make up for that by getting to the line a lot. Norfolk State leads the league in rebounding and assists in addition to their free throw shooting. They are the best team in the MEAC and that will help give them the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
Sleeper: North Carolina Central Eagles
It has now been 5 full seasons since the Eagles have made the NCAA tournament. North Carolina Central is going to have their first losing season under coach Moten in 10 years but is anyone going to be surprised if the Eagles win the league? I wouldn’t be and coach Moten is always scary on the opposing sidelines when there is an NCAA tournament bid on the line. North Carolina Central shoots the ball well from deep, and they do take enough attempts for it to make a difference. Remember it only takes good basketball for a week.
Mountain West
- Dates: March 12th-15th
- Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
- Top Seed: New Mexico Lobos
Winner: Utah State Aggies
There was a bid stolen in this conference last season as New Mexico won the league and qualified for the NCAA tournament. Utah State is likely going to be in the tournament, but I would like to make sure they can have a calm Selection Sunday. The Aggies have struggled down the stretch but with their ability to stretch the floor and shoot threes they should be able to put it all together and get back on track by winning this tournament. Utah State runs an efficient offense, and when they start making shots, especially with their ability to make threes at a very high rate, they are hard to beat. The one downfall of the Aggies is they are a bad free throw shooting team. That can affect them in close games.
Sleeper: Nevada Wolf Pack
If Nevada were to win this tournament that would result in a stolen bid. In the preseason, Nevada was a trendy pick to make the NCAA tournament and they are the ultimate sleeper team because of their ability to slow the game down. Nevada plays slow and forces teams to play in the half-court. The Wolf Pack are going to be very deliberate when on defense and contest everything. They also funnel everything to their shot blockers in the middle. The offense is good enough to beat teams especially when Nevada can get the ball to their big man. Nevada has to deal with some high-powered offenses, but they are good enough to make a run in the event.
SEC
- Dates: March 12th-16th
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena
- Top Seed: Auburn Tigers
Winner: Florida Gators
The Gators are such a hard matchup for everyone to prepare for on such short notice, and they have fantastic depth, which helps immensely in a tournament format. There are not many teams who play like the Gators do. They play extremely fast, and they run an efficient offense, are deadly from deep, and are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Florida plays fast, but they also lock in on defense. They are an elite shot-blocking team and contest every shot that goes up. The Gators already have wins over Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee and are playing the best basketball of anyone in the country. The SEC is the deepest league in the history of the sport and will get 14 teams in, so this is quite an accomplishment for the Gators if they can get the job done.
Sleeper: Texas A&M Aggies
The SEC doesn’t have any sleepers, given that any team can win this tournament, but not much has been written about Texas A&M and their legitimate chance to win the league tournament. The Aggies are deep and have a fantastic backcourt. They don’t shoot the ball all that well, but Texas A&M leads the country in offensive rebounding and is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Aggies are physical and don’t quit. The Aggies' two scoring guards have a ton of experience and have the team to make a run. They don’t need to make a run as they are a lock to make the NCAA tournament but everyone wants a conference title.
SWAC
- Dates: March 11th-15th
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena
- Top Seed: Southern Jaguars
Winner: Southern Jaguars
I am not overly confident in the Jaguars winning the league because this tournament usually ends in chaos and has some very strange results. Southern is usually the team to beat in the SWAC and this year they ran away with the league. I know they lost three games, but they lost those three games by a combined total of three points. The Jaguars have the best team in the league, and there is a clear line between them and the second and third teams. Southern doesn’t do anything flashy and they have very balanced scoring. The Jaguars force a lot of turnovers and get a ton of offensive rebounds, which is what sends them over the top with their lack of a star.
Sleeper: Alabama State Hornets
THe Hornets and head coach Tony Madlock are tough for SWAC teams to prepare for because they play a style that many in the league don’t play. Alabama State plays extremely fast and they have three fantastic guards who can all score in bunches. Alabama State is one of the teams to have beaten Southern, and they beat them twice, both by one point. The Hornets shoot the most threes in the SWAC, and while they don’t make a lot of them, they can outshoot teams by pure volume. The backcourt is a huge factor in all of the Hornet's wins, and that won’t change in the SWAC tournament.
WAC
- Dates: March 12th-15th
- Venue: Orleans Arena
- Top Seed: Utah Valley Wolverines
Winner: Grand Canyon Antelopes
Grand Canyon won the league last season and won a game in the tournament. The Antelopes have a team who can win a game this year, but unlike last year, when they would have likely gotten an at-large, this team has to win the conference tournament to get in. Grand Canyon shouldn’t have much resistance until they get to the title game especially if they play like they have all season. The Antelopes lead the WAC in scoring, made free throws, and field goal percentage. The Antelopes have had a hard time holding on to the ball and do have a tendency to turn the ball over a lot. It’s the offensive prowess and the fact that the majority of this team played in the NCAA tournament last season that gives them the nod in the conference tournament.
Sleeper: Seattle Redhawks
The WAC has four teams with a winning record and only two teams who have 20 wins. Seattle enters the tournament with a 13-17 overall record but they did beat the Washington Huskies earlier this season. The chances of a sleeper rising up and winning the league are very slim but for the purpose of the exercise I am picking the Redhawks strictly because they beat the Huskies earlier this season. Don’t count on the sleeper here. This one has the top two seeds meeting in the finals written all over it.
The NCAA tournament is a week away and these are the teams who should win their conference tournaments and receive the auto bid for the NCAA tournament. Bubble teams will be watching intently hoping that there are no bids stolen so they are still able to take part in the madness. Enjoy the NCAA tournament.