MAAC basketball is a low major with a lot of history and storylines over the years. Rick Pitino coached in the league and built a tournament team over his two seasons. Fran McCaffrey got his start in the league and was responsible for the best three-year run in Saints history. Another March legend is now at the helm of the Siena program, and he can add his name to the long list of legendary coaches to find success at Siena.
Gerry McNamara, a former Syracuse star, took over a 4-win program two seasons ago and now has the Saints back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2009-2010 season. The Saints are making their seventh overall appearance and have fared quite well in their previous ones. The unfortunate part is that the Saints will be a lower seed and are unlikely to win their first-round game. The Saints do have a roster that can keep a 2 seed uncomfortable for a little while, though.
Pace of Play
The Saints are going to be overmatched in talent against many of the teams they would play in the NCAA Tournament, and given what I know about coach McNamara, he welcomes that. That isn’t the point of this, though. Siena has a way of keeping the game close and keeping the opponent within arm's reach.
The Saints play at one of the slowest paces in the country. Low-possession basketball is a necessity given how Siena has to play. I don’t think that is the style that coach McNamara wants to play, but has to with the personnel his team has now. He is doing something right because it worked to defeat league juggernaut Merrimack in the league title game.
Everyone says playing fast is hard to prepare for, which is true because not every team you play is built to run, and if you're not built to run, that is when the turnovers and mistakes happen. The same can be said about playing slowly. It is hard to play that way, especially if not used to it; teams will try to go faster than Siena will allow, which also leads to bad shots and mistakes. If the Saints can control the pace of play, they will give themselves a chance to win.
Offense
Should it be as simple as putting the ball in the basket? Yes, normally, but when your offense isn’t overly efficient because the team has no shooting, doesn’t take many threes, and doesn't have much height, offense is going to be a huge factor. We already know that coach McNamara is going to have Siena play low-possession basketball, but how do they score points with low efficiency?
Justice Shoats and Gavin Doty do most of the scoring, and both of them are grinders who do their scoring in different ways. Shoats is 5’10” but consistently drives into the paint or takes a pull-up. It is surprising that, given the way Shoats plays, he rarely gets fouled. Doty is the toughest player that McNamara has ever coached. Coach McNamara’s words, not mine, and watching Doty play, that isn't a surprise that his head coach said.
Doty is another player who gets to the rim, shoots threes, and gets to the line—a three-level scorer. The guard playing well and scoring is imperative for Siena to keep any game close. If Doty or Shoats struggle, the game can get out of hand quickly, especially with the way Siena plays on offense. Normally, a low-possession game with a shooting percentage of 46% spells doom, but the Saints have been making do all year.
Turnovers
The great equalizer, and what do I mean by that? There have been many times when a team that plays slow with a slow, methodical offense forces a lot of turnovers and defense, and keeps the game close. There have also been games when a team dominates every aspect of the game but turns the ball over too much and ends up getting dominated.
Low-possession teams absolutely cannot turn the ball over at a high rate, or they have no chance of winning the game. Luckily for Siena, they turn the ball over about as much as they force turnovers. The number of forced is going to have to increase if Siena really wants a chance, and it all starts again with Doty and Shoats. Those two don’t get many steals, but are good enough on defense to get a couple and maybe steal a few points.
While the Saints don’t turn the ball over much, they still average double digits, which is a few too many for liking on the offensive end. Siena is already not going to take very many shots; they cannot afford to give the ball away on that end. Siena has a path to keeping a game close, but they still may be a year or two away from truly having a shot.