Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers head into this week’s AAC Men’s Basketball Tournament as big favorites. At 26-5 and 16-2 in conference play, the regular season American Atheltic Confernece champions are a lock for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, but anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.
Every year the bubble teams dread the bid stealers, and every year an unexpected conference champion or two knock them out of at-large contention. Since the Big 12 pillaged the top-tier teams from the AAC, it has been relegated to a one-bid league, but these three dark horse teams could cause chaos for the committee on Selection Sunday.
Once a March Madness darling from its days in the Missouri Valley Conference, Wichita State has only qualified for the NCAA Tournament twice since joining the AAC in 2018. The Shockers last made the big dance under former head coach Isaac Brown in 2021, and now in Year 2 under Paul Mills, they finished under .500 in conference play at 8-10.
However, after knocking the Tigers out of the AAC Tournament a year ago, Wichita State has continued to be a thorn in the side of Penny Hardaway. A defensive-minded group, the Shockers held Memphis to just 61 points in a road loss and then knocked off the Tigers at home 84-79 in overtime. Both times, Wichita State forced Memphis into turnovers and won the battle on the boards. The Shockers may not have the firepower to win the AAC outright, but they could do somebody’s dirty work and take out the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals.
Andy Kennedy led the Blazers to the NCAA Tournament for the second time last season, the program’s first year in the AAC, and after a first-round exit, he managed to retain his best player, Yaxel Lendeborg. This season, the 6-foot-9 face-up point-forward is averaging 17.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. He’s a transition offense unto himself, scoring 18.5% of his points on the fast break as a grab-and-go master, and has led UAB to the best offensive rating in the conference (119.6 according to CBBanalytics.com).
The Blazers have a 98th percentile offensive rebound rate and a 99th percentile turnover rate and all those extra possessions for a hyper-efficient offensive attack led to another 20-win season. The secondary options outside of Lendeborg are questionable, and the Blazers are lacking a rim protector, but as the No. 3 seed, UAB is a threat to steal the AAC title right out of Memphis’s grasp.
North Texas is one of the best defensive teams in the country and at 23-7 overall and 14-4 in AAC play, the Mean Green surprisingly have a better net rating than Memphis at +12.7 compared to +10.0. They’re remarkably switchable on the defensive end with a disruptive anchor in FAU transfer Brenen Lorient.
Ross Hodge has done a fantastic job since taking over for Grant McCasland and has North Texas positioned well for a Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament if they can steal the automatic bid third week. Without a dominant creator, North Texas can struggle to close out tight games in the second half, but leading scorer Atin Wright has a history of big shots and is a 90% free throw shooter who could have a memorable moment this March.