When George Mason and VCU met in Richmond a few weeks ago to battle for the top spot in the Atlantic 10, the Rams asserted their dominance as the best team in the conference. While the Patriots rallied to win a share of the A10 regular season title, Ryan Odom’s Rams are the clear favorites in Washington DC this week.
At No. 33 in the NET Rankings, VCU is likely in line for an at-large bid into March Madness and according to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, the Dayton Flyers could be a bubble team on Selection Sunday. Still, the A10 is likely a one-bid league, unless a bid-stealer, like one of these three teams, nabs the conference crown.
It took Billy Lange a while to rebuild Saint Joe’s after the program moved on from Phil Martelli in 2019. But now, Lange has orchestrated his second-straight 20-win season and despite finishing sixth in the regular season, the Hawks are a threat to steal an automatic bid in the A10 Tourney.
Surprisingly, it’s Saint Joe’s, not George Mason or Dayton, that has the league’s second-best net rating. Under Lange, the Hawks aggressively hunt threes, attempting over 50% of their shots from behind the arc over the last five games and nearly that many for the season. Xzayvier Brown and Erik Reynolds II are a nightmare backcourt to defend, both averaging over 15 points a game and 6-foot-9 junior wing Rasheer Fleming is an NBA prospect with his defensive length and three-point range.
The Hawks could get red-hot from deep and despite not earning a double-bye as a top-four seed, could find their way to the A10 title game on Sunday.
Tony Skinn was a star on the court during George Mason’s 2006 Final Four run, and now after winning the program’s first-ever regular season A10 title this year, he’s looking to lead the Patriots back to the big dance for the first time since 2011. However, seemingly every game is an adventure for his veteran group.
George Mason has played in six one-possession games this season and is an impressive 4-2. Still, the Patriots aren’t the most trustworthy team when it comes to late-game execution. Former Auburn guard KD Johnson typically becomes the decision-maker for crucial second-half possessions, but he’s averaging nearly as many turnovers as assistants and is shooting a mere 40.1% from the field. VCU forced the Patriots into 14 turnovers in its 16-point regular season win.
The Patriots have the highest turnover rate in the A10 at 17.5% and are 10th out of 15 teams by offensive rating. Yet, this team is 24-7 because of its impressive defensive effort. George Mason is second in the league (to VCU) in defensive rating with a 98th percentile mark of 97.1 points per 100 possessions, and holds opponents to a 44.9% effective field goal percentage. Skinn’s group is deep, disruptive, switchable, and scores just enough to be a threat in DC this week.
After playing North Carolina and Iowa State close, knocking off UConn in Maui, and upsetting Marquette in December, the Flyers hit a lull in January, losing three-straight in A10 play. Yet, Anthony Grant’s group was able to fight its way back to third place in the A10 with a win over VCU in the regular season finale.
Senior forward Nate Santos is difficult to defend with his three-point range in the pick-and-pop game, and Dayton’s balanced backcourt of Enoch Cheeks, Javon Bennett, and Malachi Smith are all threats to get downhill or pull-up from beyond the arc. An undersized group, Dayton has its problems defensively, allowing opponents to shoot 65% at the rim, but if the Flyers can play a bit more in transition, they’re comfortable winning a shootout.
VCU is fortunate that Dayton, George Mason, and Saint Joseph’s all ended up on the other side of the bracket, but whichever team comes out of that bloodbath, could take down the Rams and steal a bid into the NCAA Tournament.