The Saint Mary’s Gaels have punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight season. Head coach Randy Bennett has turned the WCC into a two-bid league, but he’s yet to get past the first week of The Big Dance or escape Gonzaga’s considerable shadow. After besting the Zags twice in the regular season, the Gaels dropped the WCC Championship Game, but a deep run in the NCAA Tournament would be a bit of redemption.
It’s nice for the WCC that it’s consistently become a two-bid league, but that’s a far cry from the 14-bid SEC. The league put all but two of its teams into the NCAA Tournament and its contingency included Vanderbilt for the first time since 2017. Head coach Mark Byington quickly turned the program around after taking over for Jerry Stackhouse, improving from his predecessor’s nine-win record a year ago to go 20-12.
Both programs have something to prove in this 7-10 matchup in the East Region on Friday afternoon, and here’s how you can watch it.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s
- Date: Friday, March 21
- Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Rocket Arena (Cleveland, OH)
- How to Watch (TV): TBS
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Vanderbilt record: 20-12
- Saint Mary’s record: 28-5
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Vanderbilt +155
- Saint Mary’s -190
Spread
- Vanderbilt +4.5 (-115)
- Saint Mary’s -4.5 (-105)
Total
- 135.5 (over -110/under -110)
Vanderbilt injury report
- N/A
Saint Mary’s injury report
- Alex Hemenway, G: OUT (undisclosed)
Saint Mary’s and Vanderbilt series history
- Saint Mary’s all-time record vs. Vanderbilt: 1-0
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s prediction
Randy Bennett has his team play a distinctly methodical pace, ranking 359th in Kenpom adjusted tempo. That has long been the identity of the Gaels, but they’ve struggled to find success in March with it. A year ago, the Gaels were overwhelmed by Grand Canyon’s athleticism in a first-round upset, but that shouldn’t be the case this time around with the offense built more around two-time WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis than ever before.
After an abysmal tournament performance, last year’s leading scorer Aidan Maheny transferred to UConn and has struggled to see the court in the more physical and athletic Big East. At 6-foot-4 Marciulionis is better equipped to shoulder a significant offensive burden, as is Saint Mary’s 6-foot-8 second-leading scorer Paulius Murauskas, who transferred from Arizona. Still, Saint Mary’s will need to control the pace because if Vanderbilt speeds the Gaels up, they could be in trouble.
Vandy ranks 63rd in Kenpom adjusted tempo and forces turnovers on 17.7% of its opponent’s possessions to get out in transition. Jason Edwards leads a balanced scoring backcourt with AJ Hoggard and Tyler Nickel. While the Commodores have size on the wing, they won’t be able to overwhelm Saint Mary’s as Grand Canyon did, and with 6-foot-8 Jaylen Carey as the tallest player in the rotation, Vandy will be outmatched on the boards by 6-foot-10 Mitchell Saxon and the Gael’s 40.5% offensive rebound rate (99th percentile according to CBBanalytics.com).
Byington’s group is only shooting 41.1% from the field on half-court possessions, so if they can’t turn Saint Mary’s over, they’ll struggle to score. I expect the Gaels to drag Vanderbilt into the mud with them and win a low-scoring rock fight.