Just when Dan Hurley appeared to have UConn heading back in the right direction, the Huskies suffered a devastating and borderline inexplicable 69-68 overtime loss to Seton Hall on Saturday. The defeat came just a few days after Hurley finally got his first career road win at Creighton, downing the ranked Bluejays 70-66 in Omaha behind a heroic 38-point performance from Liam McNeeley.
On Saturday against Seton Hall, McNeeley cooled off to finish with 11 as the Huskies managed just 22 points in the first half against the Pirates. Villanova, which is somehow just one game back of the 17-8 (9-5) Huskies at 15-11 (8-7), had a nearly identical week. Kyle Neptune’s group got a much-needed 73-71 Wednesday night win over No. 9 St. John’s, then followed it up with an embarrassing 75-62 loss to Providence on Saturday.
UConn’s loss only fueled skepticism that the Huskies can pull off a three-peat, which is comparably a much better situation than that of Villanova which has struggled through the transition from Jay Wright to Neptune and was knocked firmly off the bubble by the Friars. Both programs desperately need this Tuesday night victory at the XL Center in Hartford on FS1.
How to watch Villanova vs. UConn
- Date: Tuesday, February 18
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: XL Center (Hartford, CT)
- How to Watch (TV): FS1
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Villanova record: 15-11 (8-7)
- UConn record: 17-8 (9-5)
Villanova vs. UConn odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Villanova +230
- UConn -285
Spread
- Villanova +8 (-110)
- UConn -8 (-110)
Total
- 140.5 (over -110/under -110)
Villanova injury report
- Nnanna Njoku, F: OUT (knee)
UConn injury report
- N/A
UConn and Villanova series history
- UConn all-time record vs. Villanova: 36-40
Villanova vs. UConn prediction
There’s actually a fairly simple way to discern whether a team will give UConn problems right now or not, and that’s turnovers. If the opponent is adept at forcing them, then the Huskies will struggle to score and of course, because of that, struggle to win.
UConn turned the ball over 16 times against Seton Hall on Saturday and 22 times in its recent loss to St. John’s. The Huskies also gave the ball away 25 times in an early February win over Marquette. However, turnovers weren’t the only issue for the Huskies against Seton Hall because the Pirates still managed just 11 points off turnovers, a manageable number for UConn. Where Seton Hall dominated was the offensive glass, pulling down 15 offensive rebounds and converting those into 21 second-chance points.
So, if turnovers and offense boards are the two most reliable ways to beat this UConn team, how does Villanova fare in those categories?
Well, the Wildcats are a particularly effective offensive rebounding team, with a 31.4% offensive rebound rate (80th percentile according to CBBanalytics), but they aren’t going to force the Huskies into enough mistakes with the basketball. Villanova’s opponents turn the ball over at a 14.5% rate, 36th percentile, and much worse than Seton Hall.
While UConn isn’t likely to give the game away to Villanova, the Wildcats do have a way to take it. Villanova is fourth in the country in three-point shooting at nearly 40%, and the Huskies haven’t defended the three-point line particularly well this season. As has been the case all year, if Eric Dixon and Wooga Poplar go nuclear from distance, then Villanova can beat mostly anyone, but that’s a hard thing to rely on for a deeply flawed offensive team. I’ll take UConn to bounce back in a low-scoring win and continue to ride the Big East roller coaster.