March Madness: Oregon vs. Michigan preview, prediction, TV schedule

No. 3 Oregon and No. 7 Michigan will clash in the March Madness Midwest regional semifinal this Thursday.

TV Schedule: Thursday, March 23, 7:09 PM/EST on CBS

Arena: Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri

Prediction: Oregon 80, Michigan 74

No. 3 Oregon and No. 7 Michigan meet Thursday night in Kansas City in a Midwest regional semifinal matchup. This marks the fifth meeting between the two squads, the most recent being in 2014 at the Barclays Center. The two have never met in the NCAA Tournament but did square off in the 2004 NIT, in which the Wolverines won by 25. Michigan dominates the all-time series, winning all four previous meetings against the Ducks.

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Both Oregon and Michigan barely squeezed by their respective opponents in the Round of 32. After handling Iona in the Round of 64 by 16 points, Oregon escaped No. 11 Rhode Island’s upset bid, beating the Rams, 75-72. As for the Wolverines, they are advancing by hairs. Michigan knocked off No. 10 Oklahoma State, 92-91, thanks to a pair of free throws by sophomore D.J. Wilson. In the Round of 32, Michigan was able to upset No. 2 Louisville, 73-69.

The Ducks were considered to be snubbed on Selection Sunday, as many believed Oregon would be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, Oregon earning a three seed, as some say, is largely due to the injury of forward Chris Boucher. The senior suffered a torn ACL in the Pac-12 Tournament and is out for the remainder of the season. Boucher averaged 11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks during his senior campaign.

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While Boucher will be absent for the NCAA Tournament, Oregon has plenty of talent that could carry them into the Elite Eight. Junior Dillon Brooks has been the heart and soul of this group, averaging a team-leading 16.4 points, along with 3.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The forward has scored in double figures in all outings dating back to January 28.

Alongside Brooks and Boucher, three other Ducks score in double figures, on average. Sophomore guard Tyler Dorsey posts 14.0 points, junior forward Jordan Bell averages 10.8 points and 8.3 rebounds, and senior guard Dylan Ennis has improved tremendously, now scoring 10.7 points per game.

Oregon is not a very deep group as they only have seven players logging 10 or more minutes per game. Depth is crucial when it comes to deep tournament runs, as players get fatigued much quicker on an 8-deep team. Nevertheless, Oregon manages to rank inside the top-50 nationally in points per game, assists per game and points allowed per game.

Heading into this matchup, Michigan has won 12 of its last 14 games, including four wins over ranked opponents and a Big Ten Tournament title. The Wolverines are arguably the hottest team in all of college basketball at the moment.

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Michigan is led by veteran guard Derrick Walton Jr. The senior is playing his best basketball of the season as of late, averaging 19.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game in his last seven outings. During that span, Michigan has not lost. Senior Zak Irvin has stepped up as well, scoring in double figures in his last eight appearances. Irvin averages nearly 13 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.

The Wolverines’ young front-court consists of sophomores Moritz Wagner, who dropped 26 points against No. 2 Louisville last weekend, and D.J. Wilson (11.0 points). The duo has inherited much larger roles this season compared to last, but have not failed to maximize their production.

Michigan’s defense has been excellent all season, holding opponents to just 66.3 points per game. Additionally, the Wolverines shoot 48.4 percent from the field as a group, the nation’s 18th best. However, Michigan’s strong suit is undoubtedly its ball security. Turning the ball over only 9.2 times per game, the Wolverines have the nation’s lowest turnover rate.

An 8-deep group as well, Michigan lacks depth likewise to their opposition. Fatigue and foul trouble will certainly be determining factors down the wire in this contest.

Next: Ranking the remaining 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament

Despite being the lower seed, Michigan opened as the one point favorite over Oregon. Perhaps the largest constituent of this game is how well Oregon shoots the ball. When the Ducks shoot well, they are virtually unstoppable. Ask the Arizona Wildcats how their first conference loss was when the Ducks shot 64 percent from beyond the arc.