Big Ten Basketball: Why are the bubble teams in trouble?
Big Ten basketball is in the midst of a down season after its top two teams. Why does this hurt the postseason future of the “bubble” teams in the conference?
Michigan State and Purdue are elite teams in the national landscape. With conference play now complete, there should be no doubt that the Spartans and the Boilermakers are well-deserving of top-15 rankings in the country. They are well-balanced teams that have quality victories across their resume in dominating fashion. With this being said, though, the rest of the conference is in trouble this year.
The only two teams that look like sure-fire guarantees to make the Big Dance are the two that we have already mentioned. After that, there are only six other teams that are in contention to receive at-large bids and there is no chance that all of them receive bids. Considering the Big Ten has sent seven teams to the tournament in each of the past three years, there is very little chance that they match that number this year.
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The reason for this is the top-heavy nature of the conference this year. For the teams sitting on the bubble, the only games that would go down as elite wins would be against Purdue or Michigan State. There are two situations that could play out from here for the conference.
First, it is possible that Purdue and Michigan State roll through conference play while suffering very few losses. If this happens, then that means that only one or two bubble teams will be able to stake claim to a monster victory over the two top squads. This situation would leave only 3-5 teams in contention for a bid, including the top two.
Secondly, Purdue and Michigan State could stumble in conference play and lose a fair number of games. The problem with this is that the wins that the bubble teams get over the top-tier teams in the conference will mean less because the Boilermaker and the Spartans will not be as highly-regarded.
With this being said, let’s take a look at the six teams (aside from Purdue and Michigan State) who have a chance to reach the Big Dance in order of how much hope they have.
Michigan Wolverines (12-3, 1-1 Big Ten)
The best thing going for Michigan right now is that they have avoided the one bad loss. Their resume would certainly look better if they had beaten LSU (currently their only loss outside of the RPI top-100) but overall, the Wolverines look like an NCAA Tournament team right now. Wins over UCLA, Texas, and VCU might not put them on par with the top teams in the country but they are in good shape so long as they avoid horrible losses in conference play.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-3, 1-1 Big Ten)
Minnesota has been somewhat disappointing this season. After being a preseason top-25 team in the country, the Golden Gophers have been very inconsistent and have a resume that is all over the place. The team does have a high-quality win over Alabama but their win over Providence is not as good as expected at the beginning of the season. In addition, their Big Ten schedule has not started off the greatest. The Gophers currently sit at 1-1 in conference play with an easy win over Rutgers and a crushing loss to Nebraska. Minnesota is likely in the field as of now but they are vulnerable to losing to anyone.
Maryland Terrapins (12-3, 1-1 Big Ten)
Mark Turgeon is practically a magician when it comes to Big Ten play. Even since the Terrapins joined the conference, the head coach has led the team to a top-three finish in the league in each of their three seasons. Already with season-ending injuries to Justin Jackson (10.5 points, 6.0 rebounds) and Ivan Bender (4.8 points, 3.2 rebounds), though, the team will be an uphill climb to reach that pedestal this season. With those injuries, Maryland is going to need several players to step up in order to keep their tournament hopes alive.
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-4, 2-0 Big Ten)
If only Ohio State could have the last five minutes of regulation of their game against Butler back. If the Buckeyes had been able to hold onto that huge lead down the stretch instead of giving it away, the team would be in better shape. Still, the team will be a top-half finisher in the conference and is healthy enough to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid. The best thing going for Ohio State is that they have no bad losses. Their four defeats have come to future NCAA Tournament teams in North Carolina, Clemson, Butler, and Gonzaga. In conference play, adding a key win or two over the top of the league will be the goal.
Penn State Nittany Lions (11-4, 1-1 Big Ten)
Really Penn State? Just when we thought you were on the way up and trending towards returning to the Big Dance, you lose to Rider? Losing to the Broncs at home is a crushing loss to a team with postseason aspirations and it will take a lot to overcome that. Due to the fact that Penn State only plays Michigan State and Purdue each once this season, they will need to go 2-0 in those games to have a chance at making the Big Dance.
Northwestern Wildcats (10-5, 1-1 Big Ten)
No team in the Big Ten has been more disappointing than the Northwestern Wildcats. With a talented senior class returning from last year’s NCAA Tournament berth, everyone was expecting a big year out of the Wildcats but that just hasn’t been the case. Northwestern’s best three non-conference wins came against La Salle, Valparaiso, and DePaul and that isn’t going to cut it for an NCAA Tournament team. The Wildcats had opportunities for huge wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Purdue but went 0-3 in those games. It is going to take a monster effort for Northwestern to reach the Big Dance but it isn’t impossible.
Next: Player of the Year rankings entering conference play
Overall, it does not look likely that the Big Ten will get more than four or five NCAA Tournament bids this season. Given the fact that the conference has sent seven teams dancing in each of the last three seasons it is clear this is a down season for the league. Thankfully, it seems that Michigan State and Purdue are both good enough to be national title contenders.