Oklahoma State basketball: Do the Cowboys have a chance at an at-large bid?
Every season there’s always that one team whose resume gets scrutinized the most. We might have found them in Oklahoma State.
Since the beginning of conference play, Busting Brackets has been releasing our own version of Bracketology, projecting where teams would be placed if Selection Sunday started at that moment in time.
When it comes to the Big 12 basketball league, the number of teams have been pretty consistent. Six teams were relatively safe in terms of getting a seed, while the emergence of Kansas State pushed it up to seven.
That left the bottom three of Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Between the non-conference results and the blowout losses in league play, the Cyclones and Bears are unlikely to get back in the bubble picture.
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The same would’ve been said for the Cowboys, until they pulled off a massive road upset at No. 7 Kansas. It’s the third ranked win of the season for Michael Boynton’s team, along with Florida State and Oklahoma.
As of Sunday, February 5th, Oklahoma State 14-9 (4-6) has a rpi of 10, easily the highest in the league. Good news is that other metrics will be involved, including BPI (67) and Strength of Schedule (20). Mind you, these numbers will automatically improve merely by playing in the Big 12, where all the others are inside the top 100 in these metrics.
Hypothetically speaking
There’s eight games on the schedule left, with three against ranked teams. Let’s say for the sake of this article that the Cowboys split the final eight games, and gets one of the two home games from either Kansas or Texas Tech. That would give this team a record of 18-13 (8-10), are right in the thick of the bubble with high-level numbers. It also would give the Cowboys either six or seven top-50 wins, but possibly could reach up to 10 depending on how the Big 12‘s overall numbers continue to jump.
Non-Conference issues
The problem could be the non-conference. While that strength of schedule is currently ranked at 69, there’s a great chance that the number could plummet by the end of the regular season. That’s because teams like Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Houston Baptist, Pepperdine and Mississippi Valley State are all currently at the bottom of their respective leagues, and likely will finish that way.
Another concern could be the “eye test”. While the Cowboys do have great wins, it’s pretty clear that on a night in, night out basis that this team is near the bottom in the conference. That might not be a bad thing this season, but how much respect will this team have come Selection Sunday?
Next: Big 12 Mid-season recap and awards
This all could be obsolete, with Oklahoma State either playing the team’s way in, or go on another losing streak and just playing the “spoiler” role. This upcoming game with Baylor is an absolute must-win, and will go a long way into how serious people should take this Cowboys team.