Building The Bracket: Big 12 Bracketology
Welcome, Friends. Many of you may have read our recent Big 10 & Big East bracketology writings.
Today, we'll dive into the Big 12. Our rules will all still apply. We’ll help break down the crazy complexity of college basketball metrics while celebrating the wonderful sport that it is. As we fearlessly push towards March Madness, we'll provide insight for each conference and each team in or near the bracket—from locks to the bubble—we have you covered. Let’s jump in, shall we?
A friendly reminder of our evaluation process:
A 'lock' = Absolutely positively making the NCAA Tournament. While a locked team's seed can fluctuate, they are going dancing.
All efficiency rankings are utilized from: https://kenpom.com/
NET = NCAA-sponsored ranking system intended to help evaluate a team's resume.
WAB = Wins Above Bubble - Metric used to compare a team's performance to how a traditional bubble team would perform with a similar schedule.
BIG 12
For the past three seasons, the Big 12 has been rated as the best college basketball conference in the country (per Ken Pom). It even got to the point that last year's teams knew the conference was going to be so brutally hard that their non-conference strength of schedule was the following (out of 364 teams): UCF (350), TCU (328), Iowa State (324), Cincinnati (322) & Texas Tech (311) ......so you get the picture, they were trying to avoid non-conference losses because they knew the 18-game Big 12 regular season was an absolute gauntlet.
This year, the Big 12 expanded (welcome back, Colorado, welcome to Utah, Arizona & Arizona St). That expansion has reduced the ridiculous parity of the conference and made it a bit more top-heavy. And so, while the baton of 'the best conference' has been passed to the SEC, the Big 12 still ranks second and is still a threat to multiple Final Four Teams.
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas & BYU
Looking Good: West Virginia
Bubble: Baylor & Cincinnati
Houston (24-4, NET 3, WAB 5) - NCAA Tournament Projection: 1 Seed
My goodness can Kelvin Sampson coach. After a bumpy 4-3 start (all three losses to projected teams in the field - Auburn, Alabama & SDSU) - the incredibly tough Cougs have rattled off 20 wins in their last 21 games. While they win with their traditional sheer will & grit - they very quietly own the nation's 2nd best three-point shooting percentage. So yes, a team with a Top 5 coach, the nation's 3rd best defense, and a fantastic perimeter shooting team is a favorite to reach another Final Four. It's been a steady climb to another Big 12 championship and a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State (21-6, NET 8, WAB 11) - NCAA Tournament Projection: 3 Seed
The Cyclones have never finished outside of the Top 10 in national defensive efficiency under head coach T.J. Otzelberger. Well look at that, they rank 10th nationally again - extending the streak to four straight years. But what makes the Clones so much more dangerous this year, is their Top 25 rated offense. You heard me, they can FINALLY score! (past three seasons national offensive rank: 171th, 114th, 52nd.......improvement little by little). The ability to actually put the ball in the basket this year has raised the expectations of a tremendous fan base - whose eyes are now set on an elusive Final Four run.
Texas Tech (21-7, NET 7, WAB 24) - NCAA Tournament Projection: 4 Seed
Of all the games and all the wins in the long journey of this season across Division 1 basketball - the very best win was a February 1st trip to Houston by the Red Raiders. In the fourth minute of the game, their leading scorer JT Toppin was ejected for an accidental contact. It will live on as one of life's greatest mysteries, but hey - Tech dug deep and pulled out an incredible 82-81 road victory, handing the Cougars their ONLY loss since November 30th. The Red Raiders are balanced, tough, and experienced - that's a really good recipe for tournament runs in March.
Texas Tech's NCAA Tournament seeding this year will always be held slightly back by their 297th nonconference strength of schedule, which included a loss to Saint Joseph's and it's best win was Northern Colorado. They have had a brilliant Big 12 season, but that noncon might bump them down a seedline come Selection Sunday. Still, a tremendously successful second season for Grant McCasland (and super fan Patrick Mahomes).
Arizona (19-9, NET 9, WAB 19) - NCAA Tournament Projection: 4 Seed
Caleb Love has been playing college basketball for 5 seasons. His first three with North Carolina, where he started in the 2022 NCAA National Championship. His last two at Arizona. And with every game, he brings the viewer on an emotional rollercoaster. Valleys & peaks, chaos & triumph. He may be 1-11 from the field, but in crunch time he is letting it fly like Stephen Curry. And so he becomes the perfect microcosm for Arizona - incredibly talented, very dangerous but at times a bit head-scratching. They own both a top 20 offense and defense, and those types of metrics play in March, but they must improve their 3-point shooting (291st in the country). That's truly their one and only weakness. They (like all of us really) will go only as far as Love takes them.
Kansas (19-9, NET 19, WAB 27) - NCAA Tournament Projection: 5 seed
Ok Jayhawks fans, it's time to bring some perspective to the conversation of your team this year. If this team ends up as a 5 seed or maybe even a 6 seed (which so very many Power 5 coaches would sell their soul for) that would be the low mark for a Bill Self KU team's seed in the NCAA Tournament. Self has guided his KU teams to the following seeds over the last 20 years: 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4. Yes, you read that right. Nothing above a 4 seed...for 20 years...and oh by the way making the tournament each and every year.
So while yes, we understand the Jayhawks entered the season as most media outlets preseason #1 team, they are still positioned for a very solid seed - primarily due to their November neutral court wins over Duke & Michigan State that have aged like fine wine. KU is only 10-7 since the calendar turned to 2025, and many of the losses have been late-game leads that evaporated due to their 242nd-ranked free throw percentage. There is still a high ceiling, there is still time to make a deep run in March, if nothing else let's give Bill Self the benefit of the doubt.
BYU (20-8, NET 28, WAB 33) NCAA Tournament Projection: 8 seed
On January 21st, the Cougars NCAA Tournament resume read as follows: 11-6 record, a nonconference strength of schedule of 306, zero Quad 1 wins & one Quad 2 win. So, if I told you you would be reading about BYU being an absolute lock for the NCAA Tournament just slightly over a month from that point, you'd thought I was crazy. And while I still might be crazy, they are locked due to nine wins in eleven games from that date including a road win at Arizona and a 91-57 thrashing of Kansas. BYU can really shoot (4th best fg shooting team in the country). While all the headlines (and fairly so) have been written about Mark Pope in his first season at Kentucky, let's give some props to the first-year head coach, who overcame a rough start to his days in Provo to guide his team to a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday.
West Virginia (17-11, NET 47, WAB 38) NCAA Tournament Projection: 9 seed
In the wake of Big Huggin's abrupt dismissal at WVU, the Mountaineers languished to a 9-23 season (4-15 in Big 12 league games). Enter new head coach Darian DeVries, who brought his hardnosed tough-minded principles from Drake to Morgantown. The Mountaineers a-ha moment took place in a late November 86-78 win over Gonzaga in the Bahamas. Then they went on to also beat Arizona there, and that hot start has propelled them to the verge of an unexpected NCAA Tournament bid. Yes, there are some warts to their resume, including an 8-11 record in Quad 1/2 games - but their Quad 1A wins over: Gonzaga, Arizona, Iowa State & Kansas should be more than enough for a selection. Their leader and vastly underappreciated Senior guard Javon Small is must watch TV. The former East Carolina & Oklahoma State ultra-efficient guard ranks 10th in Ken Pom's Player of the Year standings.
Baylor (15-12, NET 31, WAB 42) NCAA Tournament Projection: 11 seed
On December 27th, 2024 the Baylor Bears beat Arlington Baptist 107-53. And while that might sound like a successful game, it might just prove to be the reason why the Bears don't receive a bid on Selection Sunday. Why? Well, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee only evaluates games between Division 1 teams. Arlington Baptist is a Division 2 team. Therefore, while many publications list Baylor's record of 16-12. It's actually 15-12. Why does this matter? Because the selection committee has traditionally enforced an unwritten rule that teams be a minimum of 4 games over .500. It's not a hard & fast rule (Michigan was selected in 2022 with a 17-14 record) but it makes for a very tense bubble ride in Waco.
Saturday's game vs. Oklahoma State is a must-win. Then, a critical trip to TCU and a visit from Houston await. The Bears are leaking oil losing 4 of 5 and this is gonna be close. Their immense success over the past eight years might have provided some leniency to their seeding on many Bracketology sites, but the reality is they very likely will need to win 2 of their last 3, or else they will face some must-win games at the Big 12 Tournament in KC. All of this angst because of a trip from the Patriots of Arlington Baptist.
Cincinnati (17-11, NET 46, WAB 58) NCAA Tournament Projection: First Four Out
The Bearcats entered the season with high expectations and an elite defense. And while the defense has kept Cincinnati held up their end of the bargain, it's been their offense that has been downright unwatchable at times. Their offensive output during the week of January 7th was 88 points. That's great for one game, but the problem is they played both Baylor & Kansas that week (a 68-48 loss to Baylor & 54-40 loss to Kansas).
Wes Miller has guided the Cats from a 2-8 Big 12 start to a 7-10 current Big 12 record. They are a dismal 1-9 in Quad 1 games, but an 8-2 Quad 2 record does keep them in the bubble conversation, even with their 271st non-conference strength of schedule. A trip to Houston looms, but then two winnable games to finish. This sure seems like it's going to come down to if they can make a run in Kansas City.