The college game is resembling the NBA more and more. From the reliance on the three-point shot to the push by some to move from halves to quarters to the offseason which has become almost as explosive as the regular season. One thing that will always be unique to the college game (even if some want to change it) is the NCAA Tournament and the selection of the field.
Much like the game has evolved, the importance of bracketology has also evolved. No longer is it something that people only pay attention to in February and March, the impact on a team's tournament chances can be felt and examined in everything they do, even in the offseason. Whether it be from a roster standpoint or how a non-conference schedule can enhance a resume, examining college basketball through the lens of bracketology is becoming a year-round endeavor.
While trying to predict the field from the beginning of the season until Selection Sunday is undoubtedly an effort in futility, such an exercise also gives us a look at how teams are progressing throughout the year. We can see which teams are climbing and falling on the seed list and which teams are jumping on and off the bubble as we get closer to March.
The selection committee revealed their top 16 seeds this past Saturday and that can only mean that Selection Sunday is well within sight. Believe it or not, conference tournaments begin two weeks from Sunday, so let’s take a look at how the field shapes up as postseason play is right around the corner.
South Region (Atlanta)
Lexington
1.) Auburn vs. 16.) South Dakota State
8.) Louisville vs. 9.) Oregon
Denver
5.) Kansas vs. 12.) McNeese State
4.) Michigan State vs. 13.) Arkansas State
Milwaukee
6.) Memphis vs. 11.) Oklahoma/Wake Forest
3.) Iowa State vs. 14.) Samford
Wichita
7.) Creighton vs. 10.) Ohio State
2.) Texas A&M vs. 15.) Merrimack
Since winning Maui, the Auburn Tigers have had the best resume in the country and it seemingly improves every time they step on the floor. After beating Alabama on Saturday, the No. 1 seed in the South region has a staggering 14 quad 1 wins with 10 of them being of the quad 1A variety. The Tigers have played the toughest schedule in the country and have no metric ranked lower than 3rd entering Sunday’s action. There are six games left to play before the SEC Tournament and it would be the upset of all upsets at this point if the Tigers were anything but a No. 1 seed.
Auburn gets the luxury of a Lexington/Atlanta route to the final four but, a familiar foe in Texas A&M is the No. 2 seed and, sitting at No. 3 is a team that can match Auburn’s ability to excel on both ends of the floor, the Iowa State Cyclones. Rounding out the top five seeds in the south are Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans and Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks. If Auburn reaches the final four they will have earned it.
Let’s take a look at the No. 8 seed Louisville Cardinals. In his first year, Pat Kelsey has his team in 3rd in the ACC after being picked to finish 9th in the preseason. The Cardinals have lost just once since losing to Kentucky on Dec. 14. They are also favored in every remaining game on their schedule, and Louisville could be the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Lexington
1.) Alabama vs. 16.) Bryant/Southern
8.) Gonzaga vs. 9.) Nebraska
Providence
5.) Marquette vs. 12.) VCU
4.) Michigan vs. 13.) High Point
Cleveland
6.) Clemson vs. 11.) Vanderbilt
3.) Wisconsin vs. 14.) Liberty
Wichita
7.) Saint Mary's vs. 10.) Texas
2.) Houston vs. 15.) Central Connecticut State
Despite losing the historic No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup with Auburn on Saturday, the Alabama Crimson are securely a No. 1 seed and the top seed in the Midwest Region. They have a metrics average of 3.6 with the 3rd best strength of schedule in the country. That schedule won’t get any easier for the Crimson Tide with all six remaining games against teams ranked No. 22 or higher in this week’s AP poll.
Alabama is the best offensive team in the country and as a reward, the No. 2 seed in their region is arguably the best defensive team in the country, the Houston Cougars. Sitting behind Houston is a couple of surging Big Ten teams in No. 3 Wisconsin and No. 4 Michigan. The Badgers have won 12 of their last 14 including knocking off Purdue on the road on Saturday. The Wolverines sit atop the Big Ten standings and have won six of their last seven entering Sunday’s action.
The No. 7 seed in the Midwest has been on quite a roll, having lost once since Christmas. The Saint Mary’s Gaels are one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 40 in both efficiencies. Randy Bennett’s team loves to play slow and are also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country. So not only do opponents have to take advantage of limited possessions, they have to keep the Gaels off the glass so they’re not playing defense for 50-plus seconds on a single possession.
East Region (Newark)
Raleigh
1.) Duke vs. 16.) Milwaukee
8.) UConn vs. 9.) Utah State
Seattle
5.) Mississippi vs. 12.) Yale
4.) Arizona vs. 13.) Lipscomb
Providence
6.) Illinois vs. 11.) Drake
3.) Kentucky vs. 14.) Northern Colorado
Cleveland
7.) Maryland vs. 10.) West Virginia
2.) Tennessee vs. 15.) UNC-Wilmington
The Duke Blue Devils break up the SEC’s monopoly on No. 1 seeds as they land the top spot in the East Region. Duke is 22-3 and lost three games by a total of 11 points. The No. 2 team in the NET has 5 quad 1 wins and is a top-8 team in all six metrics. Duke’s schedule eases up from now until the ACC Tournament with a big neutral-site game with Illinois next Saturday before finishing the regular season with critical bubble games for Wake Forest and North Carolina.
Duke’s path in the East region is littered with land mines. The No. 2 seed is the 4th SEC team fighting to be on the top-seed line, and because of the SEC’s dominance, the Volunteers must head east. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, with Arizona and Mississippi rounding out the top five seeds in the region. Even the No. 6 seed Illinois can be dangerous if they can figure out their offensive struggles of late.
The team to watch in the East is the team I have facing Illinois, the No. 11 seed Drake Bulldogs. The 23-2 Bulldogs now hold a two-game in the Missouri Valley with five games left before Arch Madness. The Bulldogs are tough because they are disciplined, limit possessions, shoot the ball well from all over the floor, and are one of the best teams in the country at turning teams over.
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1.) Florida vs. 16.) Southeast Missouri St/American
8.) Baylor vs. 9.) New Mexico
Seattle
5.) Missouri vs. 12.) UC-San Diego
4.) Saint Johns vs. 13.) Akron
Denver
6.) UCLA vs. 11.) Arkansas/BYU
3.) Texas Tech vs. 14.) Grand Canyon
Milwaukee
7.) Mississippi State vs. 10.) San Diego State
2.) Purdue vs. 15.) Norfolk State
Out west we see the third SEC team to land on the No. 1 seed line. Todd Golden’s Florida Gators are now 22-3 after knocking off South Carolina on Saturday, the win was the Gators’ 12th win in the first two quads. The metrics are also very strong for Florida with their resume metrics average at 3 and the predictive ones at 5.3. A lot can happen over the next three weeks, but as of now, there are three No. 1 seeds from the SEC.
The West has a couple of teams trending in the right direction at the right time. No. 3 Texas Tech has won nine of their last 10 and No. 4 St. John’s is 21-4 and the top team in the Big East with a protected seed well within reach. The Red Storm have been so quietly good that their four losses have come by a total of seven points. Speaking of quiet teams, the No. 5 seed Missouri Tigers have three road wins in league play over Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia while giving Tennessee all they could handle in Knoxville.
The team to watch out west is No. 12 UC-San Diego. The 22-4 Tritons are finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament after transitioning from Division II. They have a NET ranking of 43 and are in a dead heat with UC-Irvine for the top spot in the Big West with the two teams splitting their season series. The Tritons have positioned themselves to be in the at-large conversation, especially if they win out and meet the Anteaters for a third time in the Big West final.
The Bubble
Last four in
The last four teams in the field include, you guessed it, two more teams from the SEC. Oklahoma and Arkansas lead the group which also includes BYU and Wake Forest. The Sooners will take on Wake Forest with the winner heading to Milwaukee to take on No. 6 Memphis. The other game pits Arkansas and the BYU Cougars with the winner getting a trip to Denver to battle UCLA. As is usually the case when you get to this portion of the bubble if any of these teams can find some consistency it can go a long way.
First four out
The first four teams out of the field are the Indiana Hoosiers who have already announced they will be parting ways with coach Mike Woodson at year’s end, the Xavier Musketeers, SMU, and the 14th SEC under consideration, the Georgia Bulldogs. It’s simple for these teams at this point in the year, to get into the field you need to start taking advantage of the dwindling opportunities on your schedule.
Next four out
The next four teams out of the field that have even more work to do are headlined by a couple of ACC teams, Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Joining them are USC who took a tough home loss to Minnesota Saturday and Kansas State who after a six-game winning streak with wins over Kansas and Arizona they lost a key bubble game with BYU in their last game.