Bracketology: Bubble teams on edge as conference tournaments are underway

The madness has started and it is here to stay as top-seeded Belmont goes down in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
TCU Horned Frogs guard Jayden Pierre (1)
TCU Horned Frogs guard Jayden Pierre (1) | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

With several conference tournaments underway, it is safe to say the madness has already begun. Top-seeded Belmont was dismantled by Drake on Friday in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. This leaves Belmont on the outside looking in, however the odds are heavily against them. Moving along, it was announced that North Carolina's superstar freshman Caleb Wilson will miss the remainder of the season due to a thumb injury.

It will be interesting to see if and how this affects where the Tar Heels will be seeded come Selection Sunday. As we look at the Big Ten, Michigan State and Illinois have both been elevated to No. 2 seeds. Despite their escape at Northwestern, Purdue's recent play has dropped them to a No. 3 seed. Additionally, Kansas' loss to Arizona State on Tuesday night has also resulted in the Jayhawks downgrading to a No. 3 seed.

In the bubble watch, New Mexico's time in the field was short lived as their loss to Colorado State leaves the Lobos as now the first team out. Indiana makes a comeback to the Last Four In and VCU improves their reume with a huge quadrant one victory at Dayton on Friday. The Hoosiers will have a golden opportunity to improve their case when they play at Ohio State tonight. As Auburn takes on Alabama tonight in Tuscaloosa, the Tigers chances to make the big dance can be determined on the results of the game.

Should Alabama win tonight, it will be incredibly difficult for a 15-loss Auburn team to go dancing, despite the opportunities they may have to pick up quadrant one victories in the SEC Tournament. It will be exciting to see how the ACC Tournament pans out as California and Virginia Tech will likely have to make impressive runs to see their names called on Selection Sunday, though Virginia Tech will have a chance to make a leap when they meet Virginia later today. Similarly in the Big 12, Cincinnati and West Virginia will certainly have work to do next week in their tournament, but Cincinnati can also do damage at TCU this afternoon.

Bracket is forecasted on games through March 6.

Bubble Watch:

Last Four Byes: Texas, Missouri, TCU, SMU

Last Four In: Ohio St., Santa Clara, VCU, Indiana

First Four Out: New Mexico, Auburn, California, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: USC, San Diego St., Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Tucker DeVrie
Indiana's Tucker DeVries (12) celebrates after the Indiana versus Wisconsin men's basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

East (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville

(1) Duke (ACC) vs. (16) UMBC (America East)/(16) Tennessee St. (OVC)

(8) Georgia vs. (9) Miami (OH) (MAC)

Tampa

(5) St. John's vs. (12) Yale (Ivy)

(4) Virginia vs. (13) Bradley (MVC)

Tampa

(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) SMU

(3) Purdue vs. (14) UNC Wilmington (CAA)

Saint Louis

(7) BYU vs. (10) Texas

(2) Michigan St. vs. (15) Central Arkansas (ASUN)

Jeremy Fears Jr
Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo, left, talks with Jeremy Fears Jr. during the second half in the game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

West (San José)

(1) Arizona (Big 12) vs. (16) Howard (MEAC)/(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)

(8) Utah St. vs. (9) Iowa

Greenville

(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

(4) Kansas vs. (13) Hawai'i (Big West)

Portland

(6) Louisville vs. (11) Santa Clara/(11) Ohio St.

(3) Iowa St. vs. (14) Utah Valley (WAC)

Oklahoma City

(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Texas

(2) Illinois vs. (15) Portland St. (Big Sky)

Mikel Brown Jr
Feb 23, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) is fouled byLouisville Cardinals guard Mikel Brown Jr. (0) in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo

(1) Michigan (Big Ten) vs. (16) Merrimack (MAAC)

(8) Saint Louis (A10) vs. (9) UCF

Portland

(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Liberty (C-USA)

(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) East Tennessee St. (SoCon)

Buffalo

(6) Kentucky vs. (11) TCU

(3) Nebraska vs. (14) North Dakota St. (Summit)

Saint Louis

(7) Miami (FL) vs (10) Missouri

(2) Houston vs. (15) Wright St. (Horizon)

Robbie Avil
Feb 28, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Saint Louis Billikens center Robbie Avila (21) reacts after making a three point shot against the Duquesne Dukes during the second half at Chaifetz Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

South (Houston)

Philadelphia

(1) Florida (SEC) vs. (16) Long Island (NEC)

(8) Clemson vs. (9) UCLA

San Diego

(5) North Carolina vs. (12) South Florida (American)

(4) Alabama vs. (13) High Point (Big South)

Philadelphia

(6) Tennessee vs. (11) VCU/Indiana

(3) Gonzaga (WCC) vs. (14) Navy (Patriot)

Oklahoma City

(7) BYU vs (10) North Carolina St.

(2) UConn (Big East) vs. (15) Troy (Sun Belt)

Donovan Den
Mar 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) drives to the basket as Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Braden Frager (5) tries to defend during the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

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