Eric Olen has been the head coach of UC San Diego since 2013 and on the staff since 2004. So, when then, did it take until the past few seasons for Olen to undergo an analytical evolution?
As UCSD color commentator John Kentara relayed on the broadcast of the Tritons Big West regular season title-clinching 70-63 win over Long Beach State on Thursday night in La Jolla, as a DII program, they just didn’t have all the information.
Olen helped build the Tritons into a D2 powerhouse and once they finally made the jump to Divison 1 in 2020, underwent a five-year analytically driven evolution into a potential March Madness Cinderella and maybe the best mid-major program in the country.
At 27-4 and 17-2 in conference play before their regular season finale on Saturday at UC Davis, the Tritons are 38th in Kenpom and 36th in the Net Rankings; likely to receive an at-large nod into the big dance if they somehow fall short as the No. 1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. And Olen picked the perfect time for his program to reach national prominence because, for this and every college basketball Cinderella story, timing is everything.
Much like Senior Night on Thursday, UC San Diego got off to a slow start in Division 1. Against The Beach, it took nearly three minutes before Olen’s prolific offense broke the seal on the basketball, and against the rest of the Big West, it took Olen three years to build the program into a winner. 2023-24 was UCSD’s first winning campaign in D1, but the Tritons fell short of a Big West regular season title in a year that simply set the table for the all-important Year 5.
When a program moves up to Division 1, they are subject to a four-season NCAA-mandated transition period in which they are ineligible for postseason play. A conference title a year ago when UCSD finished second at 15-5 and Long Beach State surprisingly stole the league’s automatic bid in the NCAA Tournament, would have been poorly timed. This March, however, is UCSD’s first chance to create some madness, and the Tritons do not look set on wasting it.
Can UCSD punch its ticket to March Madness?
The short answer: absolutely.
UCSD is first in the country in turnover margin (+7.5), second in scoring margin (+18.9), second in steals per game (+10.4), and third in assist-to-turnover margin (1.83). The Tritons thrive in transition, scoring 16.3% of its points on fast breaks and averaging 20.3 points off turnovers (100th percentile in the country according to CBBanalytics.com).
In a win-or-go-home format, opportunity translates much more easily game-to-game than efficiency. You can’t guarantee that every shot will go down, but you can control how many more you take than your opponents, and with that absurd turnover margin, the Tritons average a +4.9 field goal attempt advantage.
Olen’s group is full of veterans, many of whom, like their coach and program, began their careers at the Division 2 level. That includes likely Big West player of the year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, a 6-foot-6 wing from Wellington New Zealand who played his first two years of college ball at Hawaii Hilo before heading to La Jolla. Tait-Jones shoulders a huge load for the UCSD offense, registering a nearly 30% usage rate, and yet, he’s one of the most efficient players in the country.
You may notice two other bubbles in a cluster with the UCSD senior. It’s worth mentioning that those dots represent Auburn’s Johni Broome and Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the two favorites for National Player of the Year. Though against lesser competition, Tait-Jones belongs in that company.
He’s averaging 19.8 points while shooting 58.4% from the field with 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. A crafty scorer, he’s also attempted the second-most free throws in the country this season. His 77.4% free throw rate is 96th percentile nationally and his true shooting percentage of 67.1% is 94th. He’s the type of high-volume creator that can carry a mid-major, not just to the NCAA Tournament, but through the first weekend and into the Sweet 16.
Why the slipper may not fit the Tritons?
At times, a team like UCSD with such a dominant offensive creator that logs such a high usage rate, can become helio-centric and stagnant if that player gets knocked out of their rhythm. That happened for part of the first half against Long Beach State on Thursday night as the undermanned road squad hung around in the first half with an unexpected zone defense that slowed the Tritons.
Still, that’s not a massive concern for Olen’s team heading into the postseason. Senior guards Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray provide plenty of spacing as one of the most prolific three-point shooting backcourts in the country. McGhie heads into the regular season finale averaging 16.6 points while shooting 39.4% from deep on 8.7 attempts a game and Gray is at 42.2% on 4.1 attempts. Both, like Tait-Jones, are D2 transfers.
With the NCAA Mandate no longer in the way of UCSD, the Big West Tournament is ripe for the taking. And though, the UC Irvine Anteaters handed the Tritons their third loss of the year back in early January, UCSD responded with an 85-67 pounding on the road nearly a month later. The former D2 powerhouse from La Jolla timed its D1 emergence perfectly, and in the opinion of the Cinderella Search Committee, is the mid-major best positioned to capture the hearts of America this March.
Cinderella Search Committee Watchlist:
- George Mason (Jan 22)
- North Texas (Jan 30)
- Drake (February 5)
- New Mexico (February 13)
- VCU (February 20)
- Akron (February 27)
- UC San Diego (March 7)