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March Madness 2026: Predicting Each Sweet Sixteen Game

Who will advance to this year's Elite Eight?
Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5)
Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

East

(1) Duke 74, (5) St. John's 69

Duke has been tested in both of their tournament games and have impressively went on to win each game. There is no doubt that St. John's will be another battle for the Blue Devils. The Johnnies will enter with some momentum as they are winners of eight straight, which includes a Big East Championship, as well as an exciting buzzer-beater victory from last round when Dylan Darling sunk a right-handed layup, ending Kansas' season. Rick Pitino's Red Storm have the capability to make it a game until the very end, but Duke, behind projected top-three overall pick Cameron Boozer, has shown us too many times why they are one of the best teams down the stretch.

(2) UConn 66, (3) Michigan State 75

This will be one of the more intriguing games of the Sweet Sixteen between two of the games best coaches in Dan Hurley and Tom Izzo. This is one of Izzo's better Michigan State teams. The Spartans have a good balance of just about everything, led by the playmaking guard, Jeremy Fears Jr. As for UConn, they let Furman and UCLA both hang around with them in their first two tournament games before ultimately pulling away. The problem for the Huskies is that if they let a team like Michigan State have a share in controlling the game for even just one half, it could be incredibly tough for UConn to pull away like they did against teams like Furman and UCLA. The key to the game for UConn will be starting strong.

Jeremy Fears Jr.
Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) celebrates 77-69 win over Louisville at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

West

(1) Arizona 83, (4) Arkansas 80

This will be a game that likely comes down to the wire. This game features two high powered offenses with projected-lottery picks on each side. Arkansas will have a real chance to knock off top-seeded Arizona behind freshman phenom Darius Acuff Jr., who has scored a combined 50 points through two tournament games. The concerning factor for the Razorbacks is that they entered this tournament at just .500 with an 8-8 record against quadrant one teams. On the other side, Arizona entered this tournament at 16-2 against quadrant one teams. Considering Arkansas went on to win the SEC Championship, as well as winning their last two games, the Razorbacks seem to be due for a loss in an expected offensive clinic.

(2) Purdue 75, (11) Texas 70

Texas' Cinderella run continues when they meet No. 2 seeded Purdue tonight. Texas has shown physicality on both ends of the floor in addition to crashing on boards and protecting the ball. Unfortunately, the Longhorns run ends in the Sweet Sixteen. To keep it simple, the red-hot Boilermakers will have too much in store for the Longhorns.

Arizona Basketball
Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Koa Peat (10) celebrates with guard Brayden Burries (5) after defeating the Utah State Aggies during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Midwest

(1) Michigan 85, (4) Alabama 78

Two high-motored offenses will be heading face to face. Both Michigan and Alabama have scored 90+ points in each game this tournament. While Michigan does not necessarily tire teams out, it is questionable if Alabama will be able to keep up with an offense as versatile as the Wolverines. Unlike the Tide, who rely on a few important guys, Michigan has a variety of scorers who can take over the show and Alabama will not stand in their way.

(2) Iowa State 75, (6) Tennessee 73

Tennessee has taken out both Miami (OH) and ACC runner-up Virginia en route to this year's Sweet Sixteen. The common factor? Ja'Kobi Gillespie. The senior guard has scored 50 points across the two tournament games. The Volunteers offense should have power to make this game a thriller, especially when it was announced this week that player Joshua Jefferson would be a game time decision for the Cyclones in their Sweet Sixteen game. In the end, Iowa State showed they can perform just fine without Jefferson with scorers from every side of the floor. The No. 2 seeded Cyclones are just as battle-tested as anyone remaining, while Tennessee has shown to be inconsistent against the top teams.

Iowa State basketball
Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3)celebrates with forward Joshua Jefferson (5) and forward Milan Momcilovic (22) after a three-point play during the second half on Jan. 2, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

South

(4) Nebraska 69, (9) Iowa 74

Another Cinderella run continues tonight when Iowa takes on Nebraska for the right to play in the regional final. The interesting storyline for the Hawkeyes on their way to the Sweet Sixteen has been the fact that they defeated Clemson and Florida without an efficient Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz, who is averaging just south of 20 points is due for a big game, and there is no bigger stage to do it on than here. As for Nebraska, they are having a magical season of their own, having entered this year's tournament without any March Madness wins in their history. The two teams went face to face when Nebraska defeated Iowa in their match just over two weeks ago in a game that went into overtime, but you know what they say... it's hard to beat a team twice.

(2) Houston 70, (3) Illinois 77

To round out the predictions, Houston will play versus Illinois. Houston, who is and has been known for their defenses under Kelvin Sampson will have a hard time guarding Illinois' scorers as the Fighting Illini has the second highest ranked offensive rating according to KenPom. We have seen Houston struggle to keep up with top offenses this season, especially during their February losing streak. With a matchup like this one, it will be tough for Houston's offense to give them a real shot to advance them into the Elite Eight.

Bennett Stirt
Mar 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) directs the offense against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

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