After a disappointing loss to Indiana last week, No. 14 Michigan State bounced back with a 79-65 win over Illinois on Saturday in Champaign, closing the game out on a 15-0 run, to secure Tom Izzo the record as the winningest coach in Big Ten history. Now, the celebratory Spartans host a No. 13 Purdue team that doesn’t have much to celebrate lately.
Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are riding a two-game losing streak heading into Tuesday night’s contest at the Breslin Center, which ties their longest of the season. Purdue is still hanging around in the race for the regular season Big Ten title with the Spartans, but ceded the conference’s top spot with its consecutive losses to Michigan and Wisconsin.
On the road against Michigan State, Purdue is in danger of letting its promising season spiral unless National Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith can find a way to stop it. Here’s how you can watch the Boilermaker’s veteran point guard go head-to-head with Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson Tuesday night on Peacock.
How to watch No. 13 Purdue vs. No. 14 Michigan State
- Date: Tuesday, February 18
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Breslin Center (East Lansing, MI)
- How to Watch (TV): Peacock
- Purdue record: 11-4 (6-2)
- Michigan State record: 11-3 (6-1)
Purdue vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Purdue +130
- Michigan State -160
Spread
- Purdue +3.5 (-110)
- Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
Total
- 148.5 (over -110/under -110)
Purdue injury report
- Daniel Jacobsen, C: OUT (knee)
Michigan State injury report
- N/A
Michigan State and Purdue series history
- Michigan State all-time record vs. Purdue: 56-77
Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction
Purdue ran into an absolute buzz saw on Saturday against Wisconsin. The Badgers shot 61.5% from the field and 40% from three on 30 attempts, but there are some explanations for that level of offensive efficiency, and they aren’t particularly favorable for the Boilermakers.
Matt Painter’s team allowed Wisconsin to shoot 86.7% at the rim (4th percentile according to CBB analytics), and 100% on five attempts in the paint. The lack of rim protection is staggering with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst replacing Zach Edey’s minutes from last season. In the game prior to Wisconsin’s high-scoring victory, Michigan also shot 72.7% at the rim – a 25th-percentile performance – and for the season, Purdue is allowing opponents to shoot 68.4% at the rim (9th percentile) and 43.8% in the paint (37th percentile).
That makes the Boilermakers the perfect defense for Izzo’s 2024-25 Spartans, a team that shoots under 30% from three, but relentlessly attacks the basketball and leads the Big Ten in points in the paint per 100 possessions. Jase Richardson, Jaden Akins, and Tre Holloman put constant pressure on the rim, and with freshmen point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. back healthy, the Spartans consistently generate good shots.
Purdue has such a significant outside shooting advantage, knocking down 37.7% of its attempts from beyond the arc, but Painter’s team simply does not pull the trigger enough from downtown. If Purdue checks in around its average of 21.1 three-point attempts a game, even if they shoot it exceptionally well at the Breslin Center, it won’t be enough attempts to overcome Michigan State’s efficiency on the interior and offensive rebounding acumen.
The Boilermakers are a talented group with one of the most experienced backcourts in the country, but they aren’t a particularly athletic bunch. Kaufman-Renn is a good player, but he’s no Zach Edey as far as post-up efficiency, so if Painter doesn’t get his team to be more aggressive from the outside, they’ll struggle to hang with Michigan State in a track meet.