Seth Davis’ handwritten “state of the bubble” might reveal who’s really in and who’s in trouble

Every March, the NCAA Tournament bubble turns into one giant argument.

Fans debate NET rankings. Analysts bring up strength of schedule. Social media turns into a constant fight over resumes and “who deserves it more.”

Then Seth Davis simplified the entire conversation.

Instead of complicated bracket projections or endless debate, the longtime college basketball analyst posted a handwritten sheet titled “State of the Bubble!” breaking down the race using four simple columns.

Quad 1 record
Quad 1/2 record
Wins Above Bubble
Wins Above Bubble rank among the bubble teams

It looked like something scribbled during a late-night film session. But the numbers on that page might say more about the bubble than hours of television debate.

Davis noted there are roughly eight at-large spots available among the teams he listed, though two of those programs could still remove themselves from the bubble entirely.

VCU could claim the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid by winning the conference tournament.
San Diego State could do the same out of the Mountain West.

If either of those teams win their conference tournament, they would likely be safely in the field regardless, taking away some of the pressure that normally surrounds bubble teams.

Santa Clara leads the bubble in WAB but still has a big resume problem

One of the most fascinating teams on Davis’ handwritten board is Santa Clara.

The Broncos are ranked first among the bubble teams in Wins Above Bubble, which suggests their overall body of work stacks up very well compared to other fringe NCAA Tournament contenders.

But there is one glaring issue.

Santa Clara is just 2-6 in Quad 1 games.

That record against elite competition is exactly the type of thing the selection committee tends to scrutinize when comparing similar resumes. Having strong overall metrics helps, but a losing Quad 1 record often becomes a sticking point in the final debate.

Santa Clara’s profile may be strong analytically, but the lack of high-end wins could make things uncomfortable on Selection Sunday.

Miami (OH) has the second-best WAB despite never playing a Quad 1 game

Perhaps the strangest resume on Davis’ board belongs to Miami (OH).

The RedHawks rank second among the bubble teams in Wins Above Bubble, which suggests their season has been incredibly efficient relative to expectations.

Yet they did not play a single Quad 1 game.

That lack of top-tier opportunities creates a difficult evaluation for the committee. Miami (OH) clearly dominated much of its schedule, but the absence of elite opponents leaves a lingering question about how their resume compares with teams that have actually beaten top competition.

It is a classic mid-major dilemma.

Texas A&M and Missouri built their cases with Quad 1 wins

Two SEC teams appear to have stronger high-end resumes based on Davis’ breakdown.

Texas A&M is 5-8 in Quad 1 games and ranks third among the bubble teams in Wins Above Bubble.

Missouri is close behind with a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games and sits fourth in WAB among the teams Davis listed.

Those numbers suggest both teams have built their resumes against strong competition, something the selection committee often values heavily when comparing bubble candidates.

Winning five Quad 1 games is typically a strong indicator that a team has proven itself against NCAA Tournament-level opponents.

The numbers don’t look promising for Stanford and New Mexico

At the bottom of Davis’ handwritten chart are two teams whose metrics raise serious concerns.

Stanford ranks 16th among the bubble teams in Wins Above Bubble despite posting a respectable 5-6 record in Quad 1 games.

New Mexico’s situation looks even more difficult.

The Lobos sit 17th in WAB and are just 2-7 in Quad 1 games, a combination that rarely leads to an at-large bid.

In a bubble race where the margins are incredibly thin, those numbers suggest both teams may have a steep climb ahead.

One handwritten page tells the whole story of the bubble

What made Davis’ post so compelling is how simple it is.

Just a notepad, four columns, and a handful of numbers that quietly explain the entire NCAA Tournament bubble.

Quad 1 results show who beat elite teams.
Quad 1/2 record shows consistency against quality competition.
Wins Above Bubble measures whether a team exceeded expectations against its schedule.

Put those together and the picture of the bubble starts to come into focus.

For the full picture of how the teams stack up, Davis encouraged fans to take a look at the handwritten note itself.

And if history tells us anything about March, those numbers will keep shifting right up until Selection Sunday.