Michigan State cruised to a regular-season Big Ten title with a 17-3 conference record, and on Thursday afternoon, Tom Izzo’s team looked the part in Indianapolis. Opening their postseason in the Big Ten quarterfinals, the Spartans rolled to a 74-64 win over the Oregon Ducks to extend their win streak to eight games. Despite shooting 4-13 from the field, freshman guard Jase Richardson led a balanced scoring attack for Michigan State with 17 points.
Then, after the Spartans’ impressive performance, Greg Gard’s fifth-seed Wisconsin Badgers demolished fourth-seeded UCLA 86-70, and it wasn’t nearly that close. The Badgers led 48-29 at halftime and All-Big Ten First-Team guard John Tonje was exceptional, scoring 26 points and only missing one field goal. Tonje went a perfect 6-6 from three as the Badgers tied the Big Ten Tournament record for made threes in a single game at 19.
Michigan State has been the class of the conference this season, but if Wisconsin’s red-hot shooting stroke carries over from Friday to Saturday afternoon at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in the Big Ten semifinals, then the Badgers could send the Spartans packing to await their NCAA Tournament bid on Selection Sunday.
How to watch Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
- Date: Saturday, March 15
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Streaming: fubo TV
- Wisconsin record: 21-11 (14-6)
- Michigan State record: 25-7 (15-5)
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Wisconsin +120
- Michigan State -140
Spread
- Wisconsin +2.5 (-110)
- Michigan State -2.5 (-110)
Total
- 144.5 (over -110/under -110)
Wisconsin injury report
- Camren Hunter, G: Questionable (undisclosed)
- Riccardo Greppi, F: Questionable (undisclosed)
Michigan State injury report
- N/A
Michigan State and Wisconsin series history
- Michigan State all-time record vs. Wisconsin: 85-71
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State prediction
Tom Izzo was the Big Ten Coach of the Year, and deseredly so, but Gard’s coaching performance this season is worthy of recognition. Gard, known for his defensive identity like his predecessor Bo Ryan, opened things up on the offensive end, leading to a free-flowing and efficient attack. Tonje leads the way for the Badgers who rank 11th in Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Badgers only score 39.7% of their points in the paint and 10% of their points on the fast break. Wisconsin is not dominant on the offensive glass and doesn’t force turnovers for transition opportunities, but this team wins a lot of games because of its stellar three-point shooting and half-court execution.
The Badgers attempt 47.4% of their shots from beyond the arc, the highest in the Big Ten and 93rd percentile in the country (according to CBBanalytics.com), and hit about 35% of those shots. That aggressiveness leads to an 85th-percentile effective field goal percentage, and in half-court possessions, Wisconsin shoots 43.8%. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in three-point attempt rate, at 30.2%, and scores 21.2% of its points on the fast break.
These two teams play conflicting styles and in their last meeting, a 71-62 Michigan State win, the Spartans won the rebound and turnover battle and held Wisconsin to 5-32 from beyond the arc. Izzo’s group defends the three-ball well, but if Wisconsin stays hot, it’ll be tough to beat, especially with Michigan State’s lack of three-point attempts. Eventually, it just becomes a math problem.
However, I expect Michigan State to offset the three-point discrepancy by earning extra possessions on the glass and the defensive end of the floor to get a higher-scoring semifinal matchup.